Language:English
PAOK Thessaloniki v Aris Thessaloniki
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
PAOK Thessaloniki (Local)
Prediction 61.69%1.62fair odd
EV -4.38%
Edge -2.82%
Kelly -7.96%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.73%61.76%61.66%63.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.391.501.501.5571.94%66.89%66.67%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Aris Thessaloniki (Visit)
Prediction 15.64%6.39fair odd
EV +5.59%
Edge +0.828%
Kelly +0.972%
Growth +0.054%
assuming max odds 6.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.71%15.53%15.61%17.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.815.706.7520.00%17.23%17.54%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.67%4.41fair odd
EV -2.31%
Edge -0.536%
Kelly -0.698%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.89%22.71%22.73%24.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.974.004.3127.78%25.20%25.00%23.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: PAOK Thessaloniki (Local): 61.69%; Aris Thessaloniki (Visit): 15.64%; Draw: 22.67%. For Aris Thessaloniki (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.39. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.59%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.01%EV -6.23%E -4.10%K -11.98%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.19%EV +5.59%E +0.828%K +0.972%G +0.054% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.80%EV -4.80%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.33%EV -10.55%E -7.27%K -23.44%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.71%EV +4.80%E +0.717%K +0.843%G +0.041% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -9.34%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-13 17:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.90%EV -7.46%E -4.98%K -14.93%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV +1.68%E +0.258%K +0.305%G +0.005% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -11.60%E -2.97%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-13 17:51 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.90%EV -7.46%E -4.98%K -14.93%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV +1.68%E +0.258%K +0.305%G +0.005% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -11.60%E -2.97%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-13 17:53 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.22%EV -8.70%E -5.88%K -18.12%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV +1.68%E +0.258%K +0.305%G +0.005% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -11.60%E -2.97%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-13 17:51 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.32%EV -7.46%E -4.98%K -14.93%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV +1.68%E +0.258%K +0.305%G +0.005% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -15.00%E -4.00%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.52%EV -7.46%E -4.98%K -14.93%G +0.000% | 6.47I 15.46%NM 14.49%EV +1.21%E +0.187%K +0.221%G +0.003% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 22.99%EV -7.52%E -1.84%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-13 17:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.51%EV -5.61%E -3.67%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.30%EV -2.23%E -0.357%K -0.426%G +0.000% | 4.31I 23.20%NM 22.19%EV -2.31%E -0.536%K -0.698%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-13 17:51 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.35%EV -10.55%E -7.27%K -23.44%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.47%EV -2.23%E -0.357%K -0.426%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -11.60%E -2.97%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-13 17:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.76%EV -5.61%E -3.67%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -6.14%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV -4.80%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-13 17:51 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.91%EV -6.23%E -4.10%K -11.98%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.68%EV -6.14%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -4.80%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-13 17:51 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -7.46%E -4.98%K -14.93%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -6.14%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -7.07%E -1.72%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -6.85%E -4.53%K -13.42%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -6.14%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -9.34%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.71%EV -7.46%E -4.98%K -14.93%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV -6.14%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.86%EV -8.20%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.46%E -4.98%K -14.93%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -6.14%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.34%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-13 17:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -8.08%E -5.42%K -16.49%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -6.14%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -9.34%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -8.08%E -5.42%K -16.49%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -6.14%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -9.34%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-13 17:51 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -7.46%E -4.98%K -14.93%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -6.14%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.60%E -2.97%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-13 17:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -7.46%E -4.98%K -14.93%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -6.14%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.60%E -2.97%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-13 17:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -7.46%E -4.98%K -14.93%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -6.14%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.60%E -2.97%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-13 17:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -7.46%E -4.98%K -14.93%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -6.14%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.60%E -2.97%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-13 17:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.66%EV -9.31%E -6.34%K -19.82%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -6.14%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.24%EV -11.60%E -2.97%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-13 17:51 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.77%EV -11.16%E -7.75%K -25.37%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.82%EV -6.14%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.41%EV -13.87%E -3.65%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.56%EV -7.46%E -4.98%K -14.93%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.92%EV -9.27%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.52%EV -7.07%E -1.72%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-13 17:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.00%EV -5.61%E -3.67%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -10.06%E -1.75%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -7.07%E -1.72%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 17:51 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.12%EV -8.70%E -5.88%K -18.12%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.99%EV -10.06%E -1.75%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -4.80%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-13 17:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.76%EV -5.00%E -3.24%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.42%EV -10.84%E -1.90%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -7.07%E -1.72%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-13 17:51 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.76%EV -5.00%E -3.24%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.42%EV -10.84%E -1.90%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -7.07%E -1.72%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -4.38%E -2.82%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.63%EV -12.40%E -2.21%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -9.34%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-13 17:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -4.38%E -2.82%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.63%EV -12.40%E -2.21%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -9.34%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-13 17:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -4.38%E -2.82%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.63%EV -12.40%E -2.21%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -9.34%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-13 17:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -4.38%E -2.82%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.63%EV -12.40%E -2.21%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -9.34%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-13 17:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -4.38%E -2.82%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.63%EV -12.40%E -2.21%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -9.34%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-13 17:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -4.38%E -2.82%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.63%EV -12.40%E -2.21%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -9.34%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-13 17:41 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -4.38%E -2.82%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.63%EV -12.40%E -2.21%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -9.34%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-13 17:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -4.38%E -2.82%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.63%EV -12.40%E -2.21%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -9.34%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-13 17:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.71%EV -6.85%E -4.53%K -13.42%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -12.40%E -2.21%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -9.34%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-13 17:52 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.85%EV -8.08%E -5.42%K -16.49%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.19%EV -12.40%E -2.21%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.95%EV -10.47%E -2.65%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-13 17:51 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 62.09%EV -13.02%E -9.23%K -31.74%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.63%EV -12.40%E -2.21%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 22.28%EV -10.92%E -2.78%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.19%EV -8.08%E -5.42%K -16.49%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -13.97%E -2.54%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.24%EV -7.07%E -1.72%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-13 17:51 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.66%EV -8.70%E -5.88%K -18.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -13.97%E -2.54%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.02%EV -11.60%E -2.97%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-13 17:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.66%EV -8.70%E -5.88%K -18.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -13.97%E -2.54%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.02%EV -11.60%E -2.97%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-13 17:51 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.66%EV -8.70%E -5.88%K -18.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -13.97%E -2.54%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.02%EV -11.60%E -2.97%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-13 17:51 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.66%EV -8.70%E -5.88%K -18.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -13.97%E -2.54%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.02%EV -11.60%E -2.97%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-13 17:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -11.16%E -7.75%K -25.37%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -13.97%E -2.54%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -9.34%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.95%EV -11.16%E -7.75%K -25.37%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.25%EV -15.53%E -2.88%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.80%EV -12.74%E -3.31%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 61.61%EV -14.25%E -10.25%K -36.54%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 15.86%EV -15.53%E -2.88%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.54%EV -13.87%E -3.65%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 16.8% | 2026-09-13 17:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.80%EV -9.31%E -6.34%K -19.82%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.86%EV -17.09%E -3.23%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -9.34%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 59.73%EV -11.16%E -7.75%K -25.37%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.38%EV -17.88%E -3.41%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.89%EV -18.40%E -5.11%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 16.3% | 2026-09-13 17:51 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 59.73%EV -8.70%E -5.88%K -18.12%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.00%EV -18.66%E -3.59%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -13.87%E -3.65%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-13 17:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 59.73%EV -8.70%E -5.88%K -18.12%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.00%EV -18.66%E -3.59%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -13.87%E -3.65%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-13 17:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 59.73%EV -8.70%E -5.88%K -18.12%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.00%EV -18.66%E -3.59%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -13.87%E -3.65%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-13 17:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 59.79%EV -11.78%E -8.24%K -27.40%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.10%EV -21.79%E -4.36%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.11%EV -16.14%E -4.36%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-09-13 17:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.36% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.58% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06% | 0.9% | 2026-09-13 17:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.36% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.58% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06% | 0.9% | 2026-09-13 17:51 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.34% | 7.14I 14.01%NM 13.88% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.78% | 0.9% | 2026-09-13 17:51 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.98% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.54% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47% | 1.1% | 2026-09-13 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.51% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.52% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97% | 1.3% | 2026-09-13 17:55 |