Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aris Thessaloniki v OFI Crete

2026-08-30 16:30 UTC — Super League - Greece

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aris Thessaloniki (Local)

Prediction 51.75%1.93fair odd
EV -4.27%
Edge -2.31%
Kelly -5.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.67%51.79%51.63%52.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.751.761.8560.61%57.12%56.82%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

OFI Crete (Visit)

Prediction 20.99%4.77fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -0.427%
Kelly -0.544%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.74%20.88%21.25%22.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.314.304.6726.32%23.18%23.26%21.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.27%3.67fair odd
EV -3.48%
Edge -0.983%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.45%27.33%27.11%27.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.323.313.5432.26%30.09%30.21%28.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Aris Thessaloniki (Local): 51.75%; OFI Crete (Visit): 20.99%; Draw: 27.27%. For OFI Crete (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.77. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.67, with an expected value of -2.00%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.31%EV -4.27%E -2.31%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -7.66%E -1.74%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%EV -4.57%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-21 22:09
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -6.85%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -9.76%E -2.27%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -7.30%E -2.15%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-21 22:34
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.85%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -11.86%E -2.82%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.30%E -2.15%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-21 22:08
1xBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.60%EV -7.89%E -4.43%K -10.11%G +0.000%4.47I 22.37%NM 20.95%EV -6.19%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.45%EV -3.48%E -0.983%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-21 22:34
SportsBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.61%EV -7.89%E -4.43%K -10.11%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -9.76%E -2.27%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -7.30%E -2.15%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-21 22:05
Betsson🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.30%EV -8.41%E -4.75%K -10.92%G +0.000%4.67I 21.41%NM 19.82%EV -2.00%E -0.427%K -0.544%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.88%EV -9.48%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-21 22:09
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.75%EV -8.41%E -4.75%K -10.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.30%EV -9.76%E -2.27%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -7.30%E -2.15%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-21 22:07
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.45%EV -9.44%E -5.39%K -12.59%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.74%EV -2.42%E -0.519%K -0.662%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -10.02%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-21 22:05
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.36%EV -9.44%E -5.39%K -12.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -11.86%E -2.82%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.02%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-21 22:08
Codere (IT)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.25%EV -9.96%E -5.72%K -13.46%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -5.56%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -10.02%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-21 22:09
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.67%EV -10.48%E -6.06%K -14.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.61%EV -20.25%E -5.33%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.72%EV -15.48%E -4.99%K -7.37%G +0.000%16.4%2026-08-21 22:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.17%EV -13.06%E -7.78%K -19.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -11.86%E -2.82%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -11.39%E -3.50%K -5.06%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-21 22:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 51.99%EV -14.10%E -8.49%K -21.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.05%EV -13.96%E -3.40%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.97%EV -12.75%E -3.98%K -5.80%G +0.000%15.9%2026-08-21 22:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 52.29%EV -14.62%E -8.86%K -22.49%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.06%EV -9.76%E -2.27%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 27.65%EV -14.93%E -4.79%K -7.04%G +0.000%15.9%2026-08-21 22:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.67I 59.88%NM 51.41%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.44%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.15%16.5%2026-08-21 22:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-21 22:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-21 22:09
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-21 22:05

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