L’École des cotes

AEL v Asteras Tripolis

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-14 18:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

47 opérateurs (16 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

AEL (Local)

Prévision 49.00%2.04cote équitable
EV +1.91%
Avantage +0.919%
Kelly +1.77%
Croissance +0.034%

avec la cote maximale 2.08

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
44.15%48.99%49.09%50.37%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.721.891.902.0858.14%52.89%52.63%48.08%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Asteras Tripolis (Visiteur)

Prévision 21.50%4.65cote équitable
EV -1.10%
Avantage -0.240%
Kelly -0.307%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
20.44%21.53%21.47%26.23%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.504.094.004.6028.57%24.45%25.00%21.74%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 29.51%3.39cote équitable
EV -2.63%
Avantage -0.798%
Kelly -1.14%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.38%29.48%29.45%30.36%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.803.083.103.3035.71%32.44%32.26%30.30%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (47 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
TABtouch2.08I 48.08%NM 44.15%EV +1.91%E +0.919%K +1.77%G +0.034%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -24.75%E -7.07%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.53%E -2.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 17:20
Coolbet1.98I 50.51%NM 48.28%EV -2.99%E -1.51%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.76%EV -9.70%E -2.31%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.97%EV -2.63%E -0.798%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-14 17:49
Unibet1.97I 50.76%NM 46.65%EV -3.48%E -1.77%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -18.30%E -4.82%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.17%EV -7.06%E -2.24%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-14 17:55
Unibet (SE)1.96I 51.02%NM 46.77%EV -3.97%E -2.02%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -18.30%E -4.82%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -7.06%E -2.24%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-14 17:55
Casumo1.96I 51.02%NM 46.77%EV -3.97%E -2.02%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -18.30%E -4.82%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -7.06%E -2.24%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-14 17:55
Grosvenor1.96I 51.02%NM 46.77%EV -3.97%E -2.02%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -18.30%E -4.82%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -7.06%E -2.24%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-14 17:55
Unibet (NL)1.96I 51.02%NM 46.77%EV -3.97%E -2.02%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -18.30%E -4.82%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -7.06%E -2.24%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-14 17:55
Svenska Spel1.96I 51.02%NM 46.77%EV -3.97%E -2.02%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -18.30%E -4.82%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -7.06%E -2.24%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-14 17:55
ATG (SE)1.96I 51.02%NM 46.77%EV -3.97%E -2.02%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -18.30%E -4.82%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -7.06%E -2.24%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-14 17:55
Unibet (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -4.46%E -2.29%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -9.70%E -2.31%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -7.06%E -2.24%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-14 17:50
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -4.46%E -2.29%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -18.30%E -4.82%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -8.53%E -2.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 17:50
Pinnacle1.94I 51.55%NM 49.42%EV -4.95%E -2.55%K -5.26%G +0.000%4.59I 21.79%NM 20.89%EV -1.32%E -0.287%K -0.367%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.69%EV -4.70%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-14 17:45
Bet Right1.94I 51.55%NM 47.32%EV -4.95%E -2.55%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.54%EV -16.15%E -4.14%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -7.06%E -2.24%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 17:50
LiveScore Bet1.94I 51.55%NM 46.66%EV -4.95%E -2.55%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.14%EV -19.38%E -5.17%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -8.53%E -2.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-14 17:54
LeoVegas1.93I 51.81%NM 46.79%EV -5.44%E -2.82%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -19.38%E -5.17%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -8.53%E -2.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-14 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 46.79%EV -5.44%E -2.82%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -19.38%E -5.17%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -8.53%E -2.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-14 17:55
Virgin Bet1.92I 52.08%NM 46.55%EV -5.93%E -3.09%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -20.45%E -5.53%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.30%EV -10.01%E -3.28%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-14 17:54
LowVig.ag1.91I 52.36%NM 49.77%EV -6.42%E -3.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.89%EV -2.18%E -0.479%K -0.614%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.34%EV -4.40%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-14 17:55
BetOnline.ag1.91I 52.36%NM 49.77%EV -6.42%E -3.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.89%EV -2.18%E -0.479%K -0.614%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.34%EV -4.40%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-14 17:55
DraftKings1.91I 52.36%NM 49.24%EV -6.42%E -3.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.37%EV -5.40%E -1.23%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.58%E -1.74%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 17:55
FanDuel1.91I 52.36%NM 49.23%EV -6.42%E -3.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -1.10%E -0.240%K -0.307%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.33%EV -8.53%E -2.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-14 17:50
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -6.42%E -3.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -9.70%E -2.31%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -5.58%E -1.74%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 17:50
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 48.54%EV -6.42%E -3.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.56%EV -7.55%E -1.76%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -8.53%E -2.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-14 17:55
Winamax (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.12%EV -6.91%E -3.64%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -14.00%E -3.50%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.02%EV -7.06%E -2.24%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-14 17:55
Codere (IT)1.90I 52.63%NM 47.93%EV -6.91%E -3.64%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -11.85%E -2.89%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -10.01%E -3.28%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 17:55
Bovada1.88I 53.19%NM 48.93%EV -7.89%E -4.20%K -8.96%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%EV -7.55%E -1.76%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -8.53%E -2.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 17:55
BetUS1.88I 53.19%NM 48.68%EV -7.89%E -4.20%K -8.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.79%EV -9.70%E -2.31%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.53%E -2.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 17:50
Paddy Power1.87I 53.48%NM 48.66%EV -8.38%E -4.48%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -6.91%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -11.48%E -3.83%K -5.74%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-14 17:50
SportsBet1.86I 53.76%NM 48.95%EV -8.87%E -4.77%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -5.40%E -1.23%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -11.48%E -3.83%K -5.74%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 17:50
Bet Victor1.85I 54.05%NM 50.27%EV -9.36%E -5.06%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -3.25%E -0.723%K -0.930%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.58%E -1.74%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 17:55
Tipico (DE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.80%EV -9.36%E -5.06%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -3.25%E -0.723%K -0.930%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.53%E -2.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-14 17:55
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -9.36%E -5.06%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -5.40%E -1.23%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -11.48%E -3.83%K -5.74%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 17:55
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -9.36%E -5.06%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -5.40%E -1.23%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -11.48%E -3.83%K -5.74%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 17:54
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -9.36%E -5.06%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -5.40%E -1.23%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -11.48%E -3.83%K -5.74%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 17:55
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -9.36%E -5.06%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -5.40%E -1.23%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -11.48%E -3.83%K -5.74%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 17:50
Betway1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -9.36%E -5.06%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -9.70%E -2.31%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -8.53%E -2.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 17:55
Coral1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -9.36%E -5.06%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -14.00%E -3.50%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.48%E -3.83%K -5.74%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-14 17:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -9.36%E -5.06%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -14.00%E -3.50%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.48%E -3.83%K -5.74%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-14 17:50
Neds1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -9.36%E -5.06%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -14.00%E -3.50%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.48%E -3.83%K -5.74%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-14 17:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -9.36%E -5.06%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -14.00%E -3.50%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.48%E -3.83%K -5.74%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-14 17:50
Winamax (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 47.67%EV -9.85%E -5.35%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.08%EV -18.30%E -4.82%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.24%EV -11.48%E -3.83%K -5.74%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-14 17:50
BoyleSports1.83I 54.64%NM 48.37%EV -10.34%E -5.65%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.13%EV -14.00%E -3.50%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.50%EV -11.48%E -3.83%K -5.74%G +0.000%13.0%2026-03-14 17:44
Sky Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 47.78%EV -10.34%E -5.65%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.86%EV -14.00%E -3.50%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.36%EV -15.03%E -5.22%K -7.99%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-14 17:50
Unibet (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 48.35%EV -12.79%E -7.18%K -16.39%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 22.18%EV -16.58%E -4.27%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 29.47%EV -13.85%E -4.74%K -7.21%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-14 17:55
NetBet (FR)1.75I 57.14%NM 49.10%EV -14.26%E -8.15%K -19.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.48%EV -14.00%E -3.50%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 29.42%EV -13.85%E -4.74%K -7.21%G +0.000%16.4%2026-03-14 17:49
Betclic (FR)1.73I 57.80%NM 50.37%EV -15.24%E -8.81%K -20.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.25%EV -11.85%E -2.89%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 28.38%EV -9.42%E -3.07%K -4.55%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-14 17:51
PMU (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 48.92%EV -15.73%E -9.14%K -21.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.03%EV -14.00%E -3.50%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.05%EV -17.39%E -6.21%K -9.66%G +0.000%18.9%2026-03-14 17:50
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.99I 50.25%NM 50.00%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.30%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.70%0.5%2026-03-14 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.98I 50.51%NM 50.12%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.25%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%0.8%2026-03-14 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.98I 50.51%NM 50.12%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.25%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%0.8%2026-03-14 17:55
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 49.99%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.58%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.42%2.1%2026-03-14 17:50
Smarkets1.96I 51.02%NM 49.94%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.39%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.66%2.2%2026-03-14 17:55