Language:English
AEK Athens v Aris Thessaloniki
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
AEK Athens (Local)
Prediction 67.94%1.47fair odd
EV -4.21%
Edge -2.98%
Kelly -10.26%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.41
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.70%68.04%67.88%70.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.361.361.4179.37%73.77%73.53%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Aris Thessaloniki (Visit)
Prediction 12.13%8.24fair odd
EV +9.21%
Edge +1.02%
Kelly +1.15%
Growth +0.106%
assuming max odds 9.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.21%12.02%12.19%13.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.477.509.0015.38%13.39%13.33%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.93%5.02fair odd
EV -3.35%
Edge -0.691%
Kelly -0.870%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.14%19.94%19.93%21.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.484.504.8525.00%22.30%22.22%20.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AEK Athens (Local): 67.94%; Aris Thessaloniki (Visit): 12.13%; Draw: 19.93%. For Aris Thessaloniki (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.24. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.21%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.66%EV -11.68%E -8.99%K -38.94%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.21%EV +9.21%E +1.02%K +1.15%G +0.106% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.14%EV -4.35%E -0.905%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-04 09:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.83%EV -6.25%E -4.53%K -16.44%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.17%EV +3.14%E +0.370%K +0.419%G +0.013% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.00%EV -5.34%E -1.12%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 12:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.62%EV -9.64%E -7.25%K -29.22%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV +3.14%E +0.370%K +0.419%G +0.013% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -5.34%E -1.12%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-03 16:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.41%EV -6.93%E -5.06%K -18.72%G +0.000% | 8.05I 12.42%NM 11.64%EV -2.32%E -0.288%K -0.329%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.94%EV -6.34%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 08:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.97%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000% | 8.02I 12.47%NM 11.69%EV -2.68%E -0.334%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.34%EV -3.35%E -0.691%K -0.870%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-03 04:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.07%EV -6.93%E -5.06%K -18.72%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -2.92%E -0.366%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -8.33%E -1.81%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-03 13:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.61%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -2.92%E -0.366%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-31 21:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.00%EV -9.64%E -7.25%K -29.22%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -2.92%E -0.366%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -6.34%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-03 16:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.00%EV -9.64%E -7.25%K -29.22%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -2.92%E -0.366%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -6.34%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-03 16:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.38%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.45%EV -2.92%E -0.366%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.16%EV -13.71%E -3.17%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-03 19:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.41%EV -9.64%E -7.25%K -29.22%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.37%EV -2.92%E -0.366%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -10.32%E -2.29%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-03 16:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.56%EV -6.93%E -5.06%K -18.72%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.87%EV -5.35%E -0.686%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -10.32%E -2.29%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-03 13:19 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.48%EV -8.28%E -6.14%K -23.67%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.85%EV -5.35%E -0.686%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.67%EV -6.34%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-03 11:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.72%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.81%EV -5.35%E -0.686%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -10.32%E -2.29%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-03 13:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.43%EV -8.96%E -6.69%K -26.36%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.06%EV -7.78%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -6.34%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-03 12:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.43%EV -8.96%E -6.69%K -26.36%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.06%EV -7.78%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -6.34%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-03 12:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.29%EV -4.21%E -2.98%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-31 11:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.29%EV -4.21%E -2.98%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-31 11:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.29%EV -4.21%E -2.98%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-31 11:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.29%EV -4.21%E -2.98%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-31 11:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.29%EV -4.21%E -2.98%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-31 11:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.29%EV -4.21%E -2.98%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-31 11:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.29%EV -4.21%E -2.98%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-31 11:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.29%EV -4.21%E -2.98%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-31 11:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.12%EV -6.93%E -5.06%K -18.72%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -4.35%E -0.905%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-03 05:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.27%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -4.35%E -0.905%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-02 19:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.30%EV -8.28%E -6.14%K -23.67%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -5.34%E -1.12%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-03 09:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -8.33%E -1.81%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-04 08:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -8.33%E -1.81%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-04 08:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -10.32%E -2.29%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-30 19:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -10.32%E -2.29%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-30 19:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -10.32%E -2.29%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-30 19:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -10.32%E -2.29%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-30 19:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -10.32%E -2.29%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-30 19:35 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.09%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-03 03:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.09%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-03 03:24 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.15%EV -8.28%E -6.14%K -23.67%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.25%EV -10.20%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.60%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-03 13:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.61%EV -9.64%E -7.25%K -29.22%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.40%EV -12.03%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.98%EV -10.32%E -2.29%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-03 18:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 67.33%EV -12.36%E -9.58%K -42.62%G +0.000% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 12.23%EV -13.85%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.44%EV -15.31%E -3.60%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-09-03 18:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.44%EV -8.96%E -6.69%K -26.36%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.91%EV -15.06%E -2.15%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -8.33%E -1.81%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-03 13:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 66.79%EV -9.64%E -7.25%K -29.22%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.69%EV -15.06%E -2.15%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -13.71%E -3.17%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-31 21:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 65.70%EV -8.28%E -6.14%K -23.67%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -15.06%E -2.15%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.63%EV -18.30%E -4.46%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-31 11:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 65.70%EV -8.28%E -6.14%K -23.67%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -15.06%E -2.15%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.63%EV -18.30%E -4.46%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-31 11:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 65.70%EV -8.28%E -6.14%K -23.67%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -15.06%E -2.15%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.63%EV -18.30%E -4.46%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-31 11:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 67.89%EV -14.40%E -11.43%K -55.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.22%EV -15.06%E -2.15%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 19.89%EV -14.31%E -3.33%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 16.9% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.00%EV -9.64%E -7.25%K -29.22%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.20%EV -18.09%E -2.68%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -10.32%E -2.29%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-03 13:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 65.89%EV -11.68%E -8.99%K -38.94%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 12.69%EV -18.09%E -2.68%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.42%EV -20.29%E -5.07%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-08-31 11:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.03%EV -8.28%E -6.14%K -23.67%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.71%EV -21.13%E -3.25%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-01 18:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.03%EV -8.28%E -6.14%K -23.67%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.71%EV -21.13%E -3.25%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-01 18:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.03%EV -8.28%E -6.14%K -23.67%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.71%EV -21.13%E -3.25%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-01 18:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.03%EV -8.28%E -6.14%K -23.67%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.71%EV -21.13%E -3.25%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-01 18:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 65.73%EV -9.64%E -7.25%K -29.22%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.45%EV -21.13%E -3.25%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.82%EV -16.30%E -3.88%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-03 16:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.99% | 9.09I 11.00%NM 11.00% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 20.01% | -0.0% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.72% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.76% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.52% | 2.5% | 2026-09-04 10:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.72% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.76% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.52% | 2.5% | 2026-09-04 10:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.72% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.76% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.52% | 2.5% | 2026-09-04 10:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.46% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.98% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.56% | 4.4% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |