Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

AEK Athens v Aris Thessaloniki

Início: 2026-09-05 18:00 UTC

Final: AEK Athens 5–0 Aris Thessaloniki

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

52 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

AEK Athens (Local)

Previsão 67.94%1.47odd justa
EV -4.21%
Vantagem -2.98%
Kelly -10.26%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.41

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
65.70%68.04%67.88%70.66%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.261.361.361.4179.37%73.77%73.53%70.92%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Aris Thessaloniki (Visitante)

Previsão 12.13%8.24odd justa
EV +9.21%
Vantagem +1.02%
Kelly +1.15%
Crescimento +0.106%

pressupondo odds máximas de 9.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
10.21%12.02%12.19%13.71%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
6.507.477.509.0015.38%13.39%13.33%11.11%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 19.93%5.02odd justa
EV -3.35%
Vantagem -0.691%
Kelly -0.870%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.85

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
19.14%19.94%19.93%21.63%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.004.484.504.8525.00%22.30%22.22%20.62%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: AEK Athens (Local): 67.94%; Aris Thessaloniki (Visitante): 12.13%; Empate: 19.93%. Para Aris Thessaloniki (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 8.24. 3 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 9.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +9.21%.

Odds das casas de apostas (52 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.66%EV -11.68%E -8.99%K -38.94%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.21%EV +9.21%E +1.02%K +1.15%G +0.106%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.14%EV -4.35%E -0.905%K -1.14%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-04 09:55
Coolbet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.83%EV -6.25%E -4.53%K -16.44%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.17%EV +3.14%E +0.370%K +0.419%G +0.013%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.00%EV -5.34%E -1.12%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 12:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.62%EV -9.64%E -7.25%K -29.22%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV +3.14%E +0.370%K +0.419%G +0.013%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -5.34%E -1.12%K -1.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-03 16:24
1xBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.41%EV -6.93%E -5.06%K -18.72%G +0.000%8.05I 12.42%NM 11.64%EV -2.32%E -0.288%K -0.329%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.94%EV -6.34%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 08:29
Pinnacle🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.97%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000%8.02I 12.47%NM 11.69%EV -2.68%E -0.334%K -0.382%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.34%EV -3.35%E -0.691%K -0.870%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-03 04:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.07%EV -6.93%E -5.06%K -18.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -2.92%E -0.366%K -0.418%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -8.33%E -1.81%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 13:19
Bet Right🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.61%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -2.92%E -0.366%K -0.418%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-31 21:35
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.00%EV -9.64%E -7.25%K -29.22%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -2.92%E -0.366%K -0.418%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -6.34%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 16:20
FanDuel🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.00%EV -9.64%E -7.25%K -29.22%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -2.92%E -0.366%K -0.418%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -6.34%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 16:20
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.38%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.45%EV -2.92%E -0.366%K -0.418%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.16%EV -13.71%E -3.17%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-03 19:05
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.41%EV -9.64%E -7.25%K -29.22%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.37%EV -2.92%E -0.366%K -0.418%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -10.32%E -2.29%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-03 16:20
Betsson🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.56%EV -6.93%E -5.06%K -18.72%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.87%EV -5.35%E -0.686%K -0.787%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -10.32%E -2.29%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-03 13:19
Suprabets🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.48%EV -8.28%E -6.14%K -23.67%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.85%EV -5.35%E -0.686%K -0.787%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.67%EV -6.34%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-03 11:50
NordicBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.72%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.81%EV -5.35%E -0.686%K -0.787%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -10.32%E -2.29%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 13:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.43%EV -8.96%E -6.69%K -26.36%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.06%EV -7.78%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -6.34%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-03 12:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.43%EV -8.96%E -6.69%K -26.36%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.06%EV -7.78%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -6.34%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-03 12:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.29%EV -4.21%E -2.98%K -10.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 11:05
Grosvenor🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.29%EV -4.21%E -2.98%K -10.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 11:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.29%EV -4.21%E -2.98%K -10.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 11:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.29%EV -4.21%E -2.98%K -10.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 11:10
Unibet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.29%EV -4.21%E -2.98%K -10.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 11:10
Casumo🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.29%EV -4.21%E -2.98%K -10.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 11:10
TABtouch🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.29%EV -4.21%E -2.98%K -10.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 11:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.29%EV -4.21%E -2.98%K -10.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 11:10
DraftKings🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.12%EV -6.93%E -5.06%K -18.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -4.35%E -0.905%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 05:29
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.27%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -4.35%E -0.905%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-02 19:04
Betway🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.30%EV -8.28%E -6.14%K -23.67%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -5.34%E -1.12%K -1.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-03 09:54
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -8.33%E -1.81%K -2.31%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 08:29
BetUS🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -8.33%E -1.81%K -2.31%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 08:30
Fanatics🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -10.32%E -2.29%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 19:10
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -10.32%E -2.29%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 19:35
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -10.32%E -2.29%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 19:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -10.32%E -2.29%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 19:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -10.32%E -2.29%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 19:35
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.09%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-03 03:25
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.09%EV -7.60%E -5.59%K -21.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -8.99%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-03 03:24
Codere (IT)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.15%EV -8.28%E -6.14%K -23.67%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.25%EV -10.20%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.60%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-03 13:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.61%EV -9.64%E -7.25%K -29.22%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.40%EV -12.03%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.98%EV -10.32%E -2.29%K -2.95%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-03 18:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 67.33%EV -12.36%E -9.58%K -42.62%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 12.23%EV -13.85%E -1.95%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.44%EV -15.31%E -3.60%K -4.71%G +0.000%15.1%2026-09-03 18:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.44%EV -8.96%E -6.69%K -26.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.91%EV -15.06%E -2.15%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -8.33%E -1.81%K -2.31%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 13:20
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.79%EV -9.64%E -7.25%K -29.22%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.69%EV -15.06%E -2.15%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -13.71%E -3.17%K -4.12%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-31 21:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 65.70%EV -8.28%E -6.14%K -23.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -15.06%E -2.15%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.63%EV -18.30%E -4.46%K -5.90%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-31 11:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 65.70%EV -8.28%E -6.14%K -23.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -15.06%E -2.15%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.63%EV -18.30%E -4.46%K -5.90%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-31 11:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 65.70%EV -8.28%E -6.14%K -23.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -15.06%E -2.15%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.63%EV -18.30%E -4.46%K -5.90%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-31 11:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 67.89%EV -14.40%E -11.43%K -55.38%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.22%EV -15.06%E -2.15%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.89%EV -14.31%E -3.33%K -4.34%G +0.000%16.9%2026-09-03 18:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.00%EV -9.64%E -7.25%K -29.22%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.20%EV -18.09%E -2.68%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -10.32%E -2.29%K -2.95%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-03 13:19
PMU (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 65.89%EV -11.68%E -8.99%K -38.94%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.69%EV -18.09%E -2.68%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.42%EV -20.29%E -5.07%K -6.76%G +0.000%16.7%2026-08-31 11:05
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.03%EV -8.28%E -6.14%K -23.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.71%EV -21.13%E -3.25%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-01 18:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.03%EV -8.28%E -6.14%K -23.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.71%EV -21.13%E -3.25%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-01 18:10
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.03%EV -8.28%E -6.14%K -23.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.71%EV -21.13%E -3.25%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-01 18:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.03%EV -8.28%E -6.14%K -23.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.71%EV -21.13%E -3.25%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -12.32%E -2.80%K -3.62%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-01 18:10
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 65.73%EV -9.64%E -7.25%K -29.22%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.45%EV -21.13%E -3.25%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.82%EV -16.30%E -3.88%K -5.09%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-03 16:19
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.99%9.09I 11.00%NM 11.00%5.00I 20.00%NM 20.01%-0.0%2026-09-04 13:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.38I 72.46%NM 70.72%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.76%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.52%2.5%2026-09-04 10:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.38I 72.46%NM 70.72%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.76%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.52%2.5%2026-09-04 10:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.38I 72.46%NM 70.72%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.76%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.52%2.5%2026-09-04 10:10
Smarkets◎1.36I 73.53%NM 70.46%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.98%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.56%4.4%2026-09-04 14:30