Language:English
AEK Athens v AEL
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
AEK Athens (Local)
Prediction 80.48%1.24fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -8.22%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.54%80.48%80.64%83.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.161.151.2294.34%86.19%86.96%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
AEL (Visit)
Prediction 5.97%16.74fair odd
EV +16.59%
Edge +0.850%
Kelly +0.896%
Growth +0.149%
assuming max odds 19.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.90%6.06%5.90%8.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0014.0513.5019.529.09%7.12%7.41%5.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 13.54%7.38fair odd
EV +8.34%
Edge +1.04%
Kelly +1.19%
Growth +0.099%
assuming max odds 8.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.87%13.46%13.46%16.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.406.406.408.0018.52%15.63%15.63%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AEK Athens (Local): 80.48%; AEL (Visit): 5.97%; Draw: 13.54%. For AEL (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 16.74. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 19.52, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.59%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.11%EV -7.44%E -6.47%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 19.52I 5.12%NM 4.90%EV +16.59%E +0.850%K +0.896%G +0.149% | 7.97I 12.55%NM 11.99%EV +7.93%E +0.995%K +1.14%G +0.090% | 4.6% | 2026-03-07 15:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.55%EV -8.25%E -7.23%K -58.91%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.17%EV +7.51%E +0.417%K +0.442%G +0.033% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.28%EV -5.20%E -0.743%K -0.867%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-07 15:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.54%EV -9.86%E -8.80%K -82.14%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV +7.51%E +0.417%K +0.442%G +0.033% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV +1.57%E +0.209%K +0.241%G +0.004% | 8.2% | 2026-03-07 15:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.55%EV -7.44%E -6.47%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV +1.54%E +0.091%K +0.096%G +0.001% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.87%EV +8.34%E +1.04%K +1.19%G +0.099% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 15:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.55%EV -7.44%E -6.47%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV +1.54%E +0.091%K +0.096%G +0.001% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.87%EV +8.34%E +1.04%K +1.19%G +0.099% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 15:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -7.44%E -6.47%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV +1.54%E +0.091%K +0.096%G +0.001% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -5.20%E -0.743%K -0.867%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 15:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -7.44%E -6.47%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV +1.54%E +0.091%K +0.096%G +0.001% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -5.20%E -0.743%K -0.867%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 15:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -7.44%E -6.47%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV +1.54%E +0.091%K +0.096%G +0.001% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -5.20%E -0.743%K -0.867%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 15:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -7.44%E -6.47%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV +1.54%E +0.091%K +0.096%G +0.001% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -5.20%E -0.743%K -0.867%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 15:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.44%EV -9.05%E -8.01%K -69.63%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.41%EV +1.54%E +0.091%K +0.096%G +0.001% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -5.20%E -0.743%K -0.867%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-07 11:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.49%EV -5.03%E -4.26%K -27.93%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -4.43%E -0.277%K -0.295%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -5.20%E -0.743%K -0.867%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 15:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.62%EV -7.44%E -6.47%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.87%EV -4.43%E -0.277%K -0.295%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.51%EV +1.57%E +0.209%K +0.241%G +0.004% | 6.5% | 2026-03-07 15:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.80%EV -5.83%E -4.99%K -34.31%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.84%EV -4.43%E -0.277%K -0.295%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -11.98%E -1.84%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 11:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.44%EV -10.66%E -9.61%K -96.93%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.65%EV -4.43%E -0.277%K -0.295%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.91%EV -5.20%E -0.743%K -0.867%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-07 15:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 81.35%EV -14.69%E -13.85%K -244.77%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.39%EV -4.43%E -0.277%K -0.295%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.27%EV -11.98%E -1.84%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-03-07 15:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.72%EV -8.25%E -7.23%K -58.91%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -10.40%E -0.694%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -5.20%E -0.743%K -0.867%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-07 15:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.13%EV -9.05%E -8.01%K -69.63%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV -10.40%E -0.694%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -18.75%E -3.12%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-03-07 15:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 81.27%EV -11.47%E -10.42%K -114.67%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV -10.40%E -0.694%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -5.20%E -0.743%K -0.867%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-07 15:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.47%EV -4.22%E -3.55%K -22.23%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.52%EV -13.39%E -0.923%K -0.992%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -8.59%E -1.27%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 14:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.28%EV -6.64%E -5.72%K -41.49%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.57%EV -16.38%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -11.98%E -1.84%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-07 15:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.84%EV -7.44%E -6.47%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.56%EV -16.38%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.60%EV -8.59%E -1.27%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-07 15:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.89%EV -7.44%E -6.47%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.48%EV -16.38%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.63%EV -16.04%E -2.59%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-07 15:14 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 79.59%EV -9.86%E -8.80%K -82.14%G +0.000% | 13.75I 7.27%NM 6.48%EV -17.87%E -1.30%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 13.93%EV -13.33%E -2.08%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-07 15:34 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 80.23%EV -13.88%E -12.97%K -198.31%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.36%EV -19.36%E -1.43%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 13.41%EV -13.33%E -2.08%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-03-07 15:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.82%EV -5.83%E -4.99%K -34.31%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -22.35%E -1.72%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -18.75%E -3.12%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-07 13:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.03%EV -7.44%E -6.47%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.99%EV -22.35%E -1.72%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV -11.98%E -1.84%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-07 15:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 77.97%EV -6.64%E -5.72%K -41.49%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV -22.35%E -1.72%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV -18.75%E -3.12%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-07 15:54 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 78.72%EV -10.66%E -9.61%K -96.93%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.72%EV -22.35%E -1.72%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.56%EV -18.75%E -3.12%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-03-07 15:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -1.81%E -1.48%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV -28.32%E -2.36%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.51%EV -24.16%E -4.31%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-07 11:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -1.81%E -1.48%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV -28.32%E -2.36%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.51%EV -24.16%E -4.31%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-07 11:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -1.81%E -1.48%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV -28.32%E -2.36%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.51%EV -24.16%E -4.31%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-07 11:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -1.81%E -1.48%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV -28.32%E -2.36%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.51%EV -24.16%E -4.31%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-07 11:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -1.81%E -1.48%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV -28.32%E -2.36%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.51%EV -24.16%E -4.31%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-07 11:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -1.81%E -1.48%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV -28.32%E -2.36%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.51%EV -24.16%E -4.31%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-07 11:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -1.81%E -1.48%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV -28.32%E -2.36%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.51%EV -24.16%E -4.31%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-07 11:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -1.81%E -1.48%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV -28.32%E -2.36%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.51%EV -24.16%E -4.31%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-07 11:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.98%EV -7.44%E -6.47%K -49.62%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.57%EV -28.32%E -2.36%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.46%EV -8.59%E -1.27%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-07 15:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.37%EV -5.83%E -4.99%K -34.31%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.54%EV -28.32%E -2.36%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.09%EV -18.75%E -3.12%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-07 14:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.37%EV -5.83%E -4.99%K -34.31%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.54%EV -28.32%E -2.36%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.09%EV -18.75%E -3.12%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-07 14:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.37%EV -5.83%E -4.99%K -34.31%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.54%EV -28.32%E -2.36%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.09%EV -18.75%E -3.12%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-07 14:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.37%EV -5.83%E -4.99%K -34.31%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.54%EV -28.32%E -2.36%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.09%EV -18.75%E -3.12%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-07 14:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 77.48%EV -10.66%E -9.61%K -96.93%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.17%EV -28.32%E -2.36%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.36%EV -24.16%E -4.31%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 16.3% | 2026-03-07 15:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.61%EV -3.42%E -2.85%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.89%EV -31.31%E -2.72%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -25.52%E -4.64%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-07 11:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.61%EV -3.42%E -2.85%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.89%EV -31.31%E -2.72%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -25.52%E -4.64%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-07 11:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.61%EV -3.42%E -2.85%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.89%EV -31.31%E -2.72%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -25.52%E -4.64%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-07 11:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 75.54%EV -4.22%E -3.55%K -22.23%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.82%EV -31.31%E -2.72%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.65%EV -26.87%E -4.98%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-07 11:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 77.91%EV -9.05%E -8.01%K -69.63%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.00%EV -34.30%E -3.12%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.09%EV -15.36%E -2.46%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-03-07 15:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.06% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 4.13% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.81% | 0.8% | 2026-03-07 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.06% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 4.13% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.81% | 0.8% | 2026-03-07 15:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.06% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 4.13% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.81% | 0.8% | 2026-03-07 15:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.02% | 22.99I 4.35%NM 4.28% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.70% | 1.7% | 2026-03-07 15:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.29% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.91% | 8.33I 12.00%NM 11.80% | 1.8% | 2026-03-07 15:20 |