The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

TSG Hoffenheim II v Schweinfurt

Kickoff: 2026-04-10 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TSG Hoffenheim II (Local)

Prediction 64.07%1.56fair odd
EV -3.89%
Edge -2.59%
Kelly -7.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.87%64.23%64.05%66.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.441.441.5075.19%69.64%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Schweinfurt (Visit)

Prediction 17.06%5.86fair odd
EV -1.92%
Edge -0.334%
Kelly -0.405%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.71%17.14%16.92%19.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.135.105.7521.74%19.49%19.61%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.87%5.30fair odd
EV +3.78%
Edge +0.688%
Kelly +0.841%
Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.97%18.64%19.03%22.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.564.505.5026.67%21.91%22.22%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TSG Hoffenheim II (Local): 64.07%; Schweinfurt (Visit): 17.06%; Draw: 18.87%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.30. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.78%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.66%EV -10.30%E -7.36%K -25.74%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.37%EV -2.78%E -0.487%K -0.591%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.97%EV +3.78%E +0.688%K +0.841%G +0.032%7.2%2026-04-10 16:39
Pinnacle🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.25%EV -5.17%E -3.49%K -10.77%G +0.000%5.27I 18.98%NM 18.04%EV -10.11%E -1.92%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.37I 18.62%NM 17.71%EV +1.33%E +0.248%K +0.305%G +0.004%5.2%2026-04-10 16:45
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.23%EV -7.09%E -4.89%K -15.76%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -18.98%E -4.00%K -5.06%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -0.933%E -0.178%K -0.219%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-10 16:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.58%EV -6.45%E -4.42%K -14.03%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -11.30%E -2.17%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -5.65%E -1.13%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-10 16:54
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.61%EV -8.38%E -5.86%K -19.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.19%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.19%EV -5.65%E -1.13%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 16:47
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.77%EV -12.86%E -9.46%K -35.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.62%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.62%EV -5.65%E -1.13%K -1.41%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-10 16:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.87%EV -7.09%E -4.89%K -15.76%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -6.19%E -1.12%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.29%EV -9.42%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-10 08:14
Codere (IT)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.99%EV -8.38%E -5.86%K -19.48%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.95%EV -7.89%E -1.46%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -9.42%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-10 16:30
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.47%EV -11.58%E -8.39%K -30.47%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.71%EV -1.92%E -0.334%K -0.405%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.82%EV -9.42%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-10 13:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.44%EV -8.38%E -5.86%K -19.48%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.62%EV -12.16%E -2.36%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 18.94%EV -9.61%E -2.01%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-10 16:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.44%EV -8.38%E -5.86%K -19.48%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.62%EV -12.16%E -2.36%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 18.94%EV -9.61%E -2.01%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-10 16:55
Coolbet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.37%EV -7.73%E -5.37%K -17.58%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV -1.92%E -0.334%K -0.405%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -10.37%E -2.18%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-10 13:25
Fanatics🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.90%EV -7.73%E -5.37%K -17.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -6.19%E -1.12%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -10.37%E -2.18%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-10 04:24
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 64.68%EV -14.78%E -11.11%K -44.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.21%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.11%EV -10.37%E -2.18%K -2.76%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-10 16:39
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.82%EV -9.02%E -6.35%K -21.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.48%EV -6.19%E -1.12%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.70%EV -13.20%E -2.87%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 11:14
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.12%EV -10.30%E -7.36%K -25.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.67%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.21%EV -13.20%E -2.87%K -3.67%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-10 16:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.12%EV -10.30%E -7.36%K -25.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.67%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.21%EV -13.20%E -2.87%K -3.67%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-10 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.12%EV -10.30%E -7.36%K -25.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.67%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.21%EV -13.20%E -2.87%K -3.67%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-10 16:55
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 62.95%EV -12.86%E -9.46%K -35.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.02%EV -18.98%E -4.00%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.03%EV -15.09%E -3.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%16.8%2026-04-10 16:39
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 62.95%EV -12.86%E -9.46%K -35.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.02%EV -18.98%E -4.00%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.03%EV -15.09%E -3.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%16.8%2026-04-09 18:15
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -7.73%E -5.37%K -17.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -16.97%E -3.86%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-10 04:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -7.73%E -5.37%K -17.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -16.97%E -3.86%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-10 04:10
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -7.73%E -5.37%K -17.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -16.97%E -3.86%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-10 04:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -7.73%E -5.37%K -17.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -16.97%E -3.86%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-10 04:09
LeoVegas🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.87%EV -3.89%E -2.59%K -7.78%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.90%EV -13.01%E -2.55%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.23%EV -18.86%E -4.39%K -5.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-10 16:30
Unibet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.87%EV -4.53%E -3.04%K -9.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -13.01%E -2.55%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -19.80%E -4.66%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 16:30
Casumo🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.87%EV -4.53%E -3.04%K -9.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -13.01%E -2.55%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -19.80%E -4.66%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.87%EV -4.53%E -3.04%K -9.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -13.01%E -2.55%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -19.80%E -4.66%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 16:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.87%EV -4.53%E -3.04%K -9.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -13.01%E -2.55%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -19.80%E -4.66%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.87%EV -4.53%E -3.04%K -9.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -13.01%E -2.55%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -19.80%E -4.66%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 16:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.87%EV -4.53%E -3.04%K -9.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -13.01%E -2.55%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -19.80%E -4.66%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 16:30
Grosvenor🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.87%EV -4.53%E -3.04%K -9.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -13.01%E -2.55%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -19.80%E -4.66%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 16:30
TABtouch🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.87%EV -4.53%E -3.04%K -9.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -13.01%E -2.55%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -19.80%E -4.66%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 16:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.87%EV -4.53%E -3.04%K -9.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -13.01%E -2.55%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -19.80%E -4.66%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 16:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.87%EV -4.53%E -3.04%K -9.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -13.01%E -2.55%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -19.80%E -4.66%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 16:30
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 61.14%EV -12.86%E -9.46%K -35.72%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.08%EV -21.54%E -4.68%K -5.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 20.79%EV -24.52%E -6.13%K -8.17%G +0.000%20.3%2026-04-10 16:33
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 61.17%EV -12.86%E -9.46%K -35.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 16.64%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.19%EV -29.24%E -7.80%K -10.63%G +0.000%20.2%2026-04-10 13:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.03%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.40%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.57%1.6%2026-04-10 16:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.03%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.40%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.57%1.6%2026-04-10 16:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.03%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.40%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.57%1.6%2026-04-10 16:50