La escuela de los momios

TSG Hoffenheim II v Schweinfurt

Inicio: 2026-04-10 17:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

37 corredores (10 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

TSG Hoffenheim II (Local)

Predicción 64.07%1.56momio equitativo
EV -3.89%
Ventaja -2.59%
Kelly -7.78%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
60.87%64.23%64.05%66.66%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.331.441.441.5075.19%69.64%69.44%66.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Schweinfurt (Visitante)

Predicción 17.06%5.86momio equitativo
EV -1.92%
Ventaja -0.334%
Kelly -0.405%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.71%17.14%16.92%19.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.605.135.105.7521.74%19.49%19.61%17.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 18.87%5.30momio equitativo
EV +3.78%
Ventaja +0.688%
Kelly +0.841%
Crecimiento +0.032%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.97%18.64%19.03%22.19%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.754.564.505.5026.67%21.91%22.22%18.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Tipico (DE)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.66%EV -10.30%E -7.36%K -25.74%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.37%EV -2.78%E -0.487%K -0.591%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.97%EV +3.78%E +0.688%K +0.841%G +0.032%7.2%2026-04-10 16:39
Pinnacle1.48I 67.57%NM 64.25%EV -5.17%E -3.49%K -10.77%G +0.000%5.27I 18.98%NM 18.04%EV -10.11%E -1.92%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.37I 18.62%NM 17.71%EV +1.33%E +0.248%K +0.305%G +0.004%5.2%2026-04-10 16:45
Betway1.45I 68.97%NM 63.23%EV -7.09%E -4.89%K -15.76%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -18.98%E -4.00%K -5.06%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -0.933%E -0.178%K -0.219%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-10 16:55
Winamax (DE)1.46I 68.49%NM 63.58%EV -6.45%E -4.42%K -14.03%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -11.30%E -2.17%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -5.65%E -1.13%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-10 16:54
Bovada1.43I 69.93%NM 63.61%EV -8.38%E -5.86%K -19.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.19%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.19%EV -5.65%E -1.13%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 16:47
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 64.77%EV -12.86%E -9.46%K -35.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.62%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.62%EV -5.65%E -1.13%K -1.41%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-10 16:40
Unibet (UK)1.45I 68.97%NM 63.87%EV -7.09%E -4.89%K -15.76%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -6.19%E -1.12%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.29%EV -9.42%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-10 08:14
Codere (IT)1.43I 69.93%NM 63.99%EV -8.38%E -5.86%K -19.48%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.95%EV -7.89%E -1.46%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -9.42%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-10 16:30
theScore Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 65.47%EV -11.58%E -8.39%K -30.47%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.71%EV -1.92%E -0.334%K -0.405%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.82%EV -9.42%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-10 13:30
BetOnline.ag1.43I 69.93%NM 63.44%EV -8.38%E -5.86%K -19.48%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.62%EV -12.16%E -2.36%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 18.94%EV -9.61%E -2.01%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-10 16:55
LowVig.ag1.43I 69.93%NM 63.44%EV -8.38%E -5.86%K -19.48%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.62%EV -12.16%E -2.36%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 18.94%EV -9.61%E -2.01%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-10 16:55
Coolbet1.44I 69.44%NM 64.37%EV -7.73%E -5.37%K -17.58%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV -1.92%E -0.334%K -0.405%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -10.37%E -2.18%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-10 13:25
Fanatics1.44I 69.44%NM 63.90%EV -7.73%E -5.37%K -17.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -6.19%E -1.12%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -10.37%E -2.18%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-10 04:24
SportsBet1.33I 75.19%NM 64.68%EV -14.78%E -11.11%K -44.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.21%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.11%EV -10.37%E -2.18%K -2.76%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-10 16:39
PlayUp1.42I 70.42%NM 63.82%EV -9.02%E -6.35%K -21.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.48%EV -6.19%E -1.12%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.70%EV -13.20%E -2.87%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 11:14
888sport1.40I 71.43%NM 63.12%EV -10.30%E -7.36%K -25.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.67%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.21%EV -13.20%E -2.87%K -3.67%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-10 16:55
888sport (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 63.12%EV -10.30%E -7.36%K -25.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.67%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.21%EV -13.20%E -2.87%K -3.67%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-10 16:55
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 63.12%EV -10.30%E -7.36%K -25.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.67%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.21%EV -13.20%E -2.87%K -3.67%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-10 16:55
Sky Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 62.95%EV -12.86%E -9.46%K -35.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.02%EV -18.98%E -4.00%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.03%EV -15.09%E -3.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%16.8%2026-04-10 16:39
BoyleSports1.36I 73.53%NM 62.95%EV -12.86%E -9.46%K -35.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.02%EV -18.98%E -4.00%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.03%EV -15.09%E -3.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%16.8%2026-04-09 18:15
Neds1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -7.73%E -5.37%K -17.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -16.97%E -3.86%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-10 04:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -7.73%E -5.37%K -17.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -16.97%E -3.86%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-10 04:10
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -7.73%E -5.37%K -17.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -16.97%E -3.86%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-10 04:10
Ladbrokes (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -7.73%E -5.37%K -17.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -16.97%E -3.86%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-10 04:09
LeoVegas1.50I 66.67%NM 60.87%EV -3.89%E -2.59%K -7.78%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.90%EV -13.01%E -2.55%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.23%EV -18.86%E -4.39%K -5.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-10 16:30
Unibet1.49I 67.11%NM 60.87%EV -4.53%E -3.04%K -9.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -13.01%E -2.55%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -19.80%E -4.66%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 16:30
Casumo1.49I 67.11%NM 60.87%EV -4.53%E -3.04%K -9.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -13.01%E -2.55%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -19.80%E -4.66%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.49I 67.11%NM 60.87%EV -4.53%E -3.04%K -9.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -13.01%E -2.55%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -19.80%E -4.66%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 16:30
LiveScore Bet1.49I 67.11%NM 60.87%EV -4.53%E -3.04%K -9.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -13.01%E -2.55%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -19.80%E -4.66%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 16:30
Unibet (SE)1.49I 67.11%NM 60.87%EV -4.53%E -3.04%K -9.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -13.01%E -2.55%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -19.80%E -4.66%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 16:30
Virgin Bet1.49I 67.11%NM 60.87%EV -4.53%E -3.04%K -9.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -13.01%E -2.55%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -19.80%E -4.66%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 16:30
Grosvenor1.49I 67.11%NM 60.87%EV -4.53%E -3.04%K -9.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -13.01%E -2.55%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -19.80%E -4.66%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 16:30
TABtouch1.49I 67.11%NM 60.87%EV -4.53%E -3.04%K -9.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -13.01%E -2.55%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -19.80%E -4.66%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 16:30
ATG (SE)1.49I 67.11%NM 60.87%EV -4.53%E -3.04%K -9.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -13.01%E -2.55%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -19.80%E -4.66%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 16:30
Svenska Spel1.49I 67.11%NM 60.87%EV -4.53%E -3.04%K -9.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -13.01%E -2.55%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -19.80%E -4.66%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 16:30
Bet Victor1.36I 73.53%NM 61.14%EV -12.86%E -9.46%K -35.72%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.08%EV -21.54%E -4.68%K -5.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 20.79%EV -24.52%E -6.13%K -8.17%G +0.000%20.3%2026-04-10 16:33
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 61.17%EV -12.86%E -9.46%K -35.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 16.64%EV -14.72%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.19%EV -29.24%E -7.80%K -10.63%G +0.000%20.2%2026-04-10 13:24
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.49I 67.11%NM 66.03%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.40%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.57%1.6%2026-04-10 16:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.49I 67.11%NM 66.03%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.40%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.57%1.6%2026-04-10 16:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.49I 67.11%NM 66.03%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.40%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.57%1.6%2026-04-10 16:50