The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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TSG Hoffenheim II v FC Ingolstadt 04

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TSG Hoffenheim II (Local)

Prediction 40.31%2.48fair odd
EV -4.87%
Edge -2.06%
Kelly -3.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.18%40.42%40.27%41.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.252.252.3647.62%44.36%44.44%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Ingolstadt 04 (Visit)

Prediction 35.35%2.83fair odd
EV -4.55%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -2.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.28%35.27%35.36%36.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.542.552.7042.02%39.33%39.22%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.34%4.11fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -0.660%
Kelly -0.879%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.95%24.30%24.38%26.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.673.704.0032.26%27.22%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TSG Hoffenheim II (Local): 40.31%; FC Ingolstadt 04 (Visit): 35.35%; Draw: 24.34%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.11. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.00, with an expected value of -2.64%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.89%EV -4.87%E -2.06%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.66%EV -6.68%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -6.29%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 14:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.95%EV -6.48%E -2.79%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -8.09%E -3.11%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -7.51%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 10:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.95%EV -6.48%E -2.79%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -8.09%E -3.11%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -7.51%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 10:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96%EV -7.29%E -3.17%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.89%EV -4.55%E -1.69%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -5.07%E -1.30%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 18:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.30%EV -7.29%E -3.17%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.98%EV -6.32%E -2.39%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -8.72%E -2.33%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-22 12:05
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.29%EV -7.29%E -3.17%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -8.09%E -3.11%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.07%EV -6.29%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-22 12:25
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -7.29%E -3.17%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.53%EV -8.09%E -3.11%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -7.51%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-18 12:45
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -7.29%E -3.17%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -9.94%E -2.69%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-20 12:15
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -7.29%E -3.17%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -9.94%E -2.69%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-20 12:15
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -7.29%E -3.17%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -9.94%E -2.69%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-20 12:15
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -7.29%E -3.17%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -9.94%E -2.69%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-20 12:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -7.29%E -3.17%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -9.94%E -2.69%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-20 12:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -7.29%E -3.17%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -9.94%E -2.69%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-20 12:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -7.29%E -3.17%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -9.94%E -2.69%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-20 12:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -7.29%E -3.17%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -9.94%E -2.69%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-20 12:14
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -7.29%E -3.17%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -9.94%E -2.69%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-20 12:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -7.29%E -3.17%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -9.94%E -2.69%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-20 12:14
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -7.29%E -3.17%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -9.94%E -2.69%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-20 12:15
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.41%EV -9.30%E -4.14%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.66%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.93%EV -7.51%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 12:07
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -9.30%E -4.14%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -11.62%E -4.65%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.00%EV -8.72%E -2.33%K -3.17%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-18 12:20
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -9.30%E -4.14%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -8.09%E -3.11%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -14.81%E -4.23%K -5.92%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-18 13:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -9.30%E -4.14%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -8.09%E -3.11%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -14.81%E -4.23%K -5.92%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-18 13:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -9.30%E -4.14%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -8.09%E -3.11%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -14.81%E -4.23%K -5.92%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-18 13:19
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.60%EV -9.30%E -4.14%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.64%EV -11.62%E -4.65%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -12.37%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-20 12:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.60%EV -9.30%E -4.14%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.64%EV -11.62%E -4.65%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -12.37%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-20 12:04
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.60%EV -9.30%E -4.14%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.64%EV -11.62%E -4.65%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -12.37%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-20 12:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.60%EV -9.30%E -4.14%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.64%EV -11.62%E -4.65%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -12.37%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-20 12:04
Codere (IT)🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 40.13%EV -9.71%E -4.33%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.25%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.63%EV -11.16%E -3.06%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-23 12:10
Suprabets🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.65%EV -10.11%E -4.53%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.65%EV -12.33%E -4.97%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.70%EV -12.86%E -3.59%K -4.99%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-24 03:19
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -11.32%E -5.15%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -8.09%E -3.11%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -2.64%E -0.660%K -0.879%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-22 06:10
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.96%EV -11.32%E -5.15%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.33%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.71%EV -7.51%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-21 11:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.83%EV -11.32%E -5.15%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.22%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -8.72%E -2.33%K -3.17%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-22 14:35
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.67%EV -11.32%E -5.15%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -11.62%E -4.65%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -7.51%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-18 12:30
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.41%EV -11.32%E -5.15%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.56%EV -11.62%E -4.65%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.03%EV -9.94%E -2.69%K -3.68%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-18 12:20
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.13%EV -13.33%E -6.20%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.22%EV -13.39%E -5.47%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.65%EV -14.81%E -4.23%K -5.92%G +0.000%15.9%2026-04-18 12:30
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.28%EV -15.35%E -7.31%K -13.95%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 35.55%EV -15.87%E -6.67%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.17%EV -14.81%E -4.23%K -5.92%G +0.000%18.2%2026-04-20 06:40
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 39.70%EV -15.35%E -7.31%K -13.95%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 35.03%EV -15.87%E -6.67%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.27%EV -19.68%E -5.96%K -8.56%G +0.000%19.9%2026-04-21 08:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 39.18%EV -15.35%E -7.31%K -13.95%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.28%EV -15.16%E -6.32%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.54%EV -24.54%E -7.92%K -11.69%G +0.000%21.5%2026-04-18 14:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 39.97%2.56I 39.06%NM 35.28%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.75%10.7%2026-04-24 01:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 39.97%2.56I 39.06%NM 35.28%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.75%10.7%2026-04-24 01:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 39.97%2.56I 39.06%NM 35.28%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.75%10.7%2026-04-24 01:55