Language:English
TSG Hoffenheim II v 1. FC Saarbrücken
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
TSG Hoffenheim II (Local)
Prediction 29.23%3.42fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -0.979%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.49%29.16%29.31%30.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.133.133.3135.71%31.91%31.95%30.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
1. FC Saarbrücken (Visit)
Prediction 47.54%2.10fair odd
EV -5.88%
Edge -2.97%
Kelly -6.00%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.98
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.93%47.64%47.53%49.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.911.911.9857.14%52.48%52.36%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.23%4.30fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -0.410%
Kelly -0.537%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.23
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.27%23.20%23.16%25.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.813.754.2331.25%26.23%26.67%23.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TSG Hoffenheim II (Local): 29.23%; 1. FC Saarbrücken (Visit): 47.54%; Draw: 23.23%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.30. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.23, with an expected value of -1.74%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.31I 30.21%NM 28.74%EV -3.24%E -0.979%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.78%EV -7.30%E -3.74%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 4.23I 23.64%NM 22.49%EV -1.74%E -0.410%K -0.537%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 17:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%EV -9.68%E -5.09%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -2.43%E -0.579%K -0.760%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-10 17:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -9.20%E -4.82%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -12.89%E -3.44%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-10 17:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.86%EV -9.68%E -5.09%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-10 17:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.86%EV -9.68%E -5.09%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-10 17:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.86%EV -9.68%E -5.09%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-10 17:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.00%EV -10.15%E -5.37%K -11.41%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-10 17:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.00%EV -10.15%E -5.37%K -11.41%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-10 17:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.00%EV -10.15%E -5.37%K -11.41%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-10 17:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.00%EV -10.15%E -5.37%K -11.41%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-10 17:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.00%EV -10.15%E -5.37%K -11.41%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-10 17:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.00%EV -10.15%E -5.37%K -11.41%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-10 17:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.00%EV -10.15%E -5.37%K -11.41%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-10 17:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -6.46%E -2.02%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -7.30%E -3.74%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -7.08%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-10 17:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -6.46%E -2.02%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -7.30%E -3.74%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -7.08%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-10 17:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -6.46%E -2.02%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.63%EV -9.20%E -4.82%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -11.72%E -3.09%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-10 17:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.47%EV -7.92%E -2.51%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -7.30%E -3.74%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.92%EV -5.92%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-10 17:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.47%EV -7.92%E -2.51%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -7.30%E -3.74%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.92%EV -5.92%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-10 17:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -7.92%E -2.51%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -7.30%E -3.74%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -7.08%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-10 17:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.77%EV -7.92%E -2.51%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.69%EV -9.68%E -5.09%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -10.56%E -2.74%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-10 17:20 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 3.13I 31.95%NM 29.01%EV -8.50%E -2.72%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.29%EV -10.63%E -5.65%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -7.08%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-10 17:18 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.93%EV -9.38%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.87%EV -5.88%E -2.97%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -7.08%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-10 17:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.81%EV -9.38%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.64%EV -7.78%E -4.01%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.54%EV -4.76%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-10 17:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.56%EV -9.38%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.24%EV -7.78%E -4.01%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -8.24%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-10 17:24 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.38%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -9.20%E -4.82%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.08%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-10 17:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -9.38%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -7.30%E -3.74%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -11.72%E -3.09%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-10 17:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -9.38%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49%EV -9.20%E -4.82%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.40%E -2.41%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-10 17:16 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%EV -9.38%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%EV -9.20%E -4.82%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -12.89%E -3.44%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-10 17:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%EV -9.38%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%EV -9.20%E -4.82%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -12.89%E -3.44%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-10 17:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%EV -9.38%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%EV -9.20%E -4.82%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -12.89%E -3.44%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-10 17:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -12.30%E -4.10%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.30%EV -9.20%E -4.82%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.59%EV -7.08%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-10 17:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -12.30%E -4.10%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -7.30%E -3.74%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-10 17:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -12.30%E -4.10%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -7.30%E -3.74%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-10 17:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -12.30%E -4.10%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -7.30%E -3.74%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-10 17:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -12.30%E -4.10%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -7.30%E -3.74%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-10 17:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.47%EV -12.30%E -4.10%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.27%EV -11.11%E -5.94%K -12.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -11.72%E -3.09%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-05-10 17:18 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.87%EV -15.23%E -5.25%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 47.33%EV -13.01%E -7.11%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.80%EV -11.72%E -3.09%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-05-10 17:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.65%EV -15.23%E -5.25%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 46.47%EV -12.06%E -6.52%K -14.18%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.88%EV -16.37%E -4.55%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 16.3% | 2026-05-10 17:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.38%EV -15.81%E -5.49%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 48.35%EV -16.81%E -9.61%K -22.41%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.27%EV -11.72%E -3.09%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 18.2% | 2026-05-10 17:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.01%EV -15.81%E -5.49%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 46.42%EV -14.43%E -8.02%K -18.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 24.57%EV -21.02%E -6.18%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 19.7% | 2026-05-10 17:22 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 29.37%EV -18.15%E -6.48%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 44.93%EV -13.01%E -7.11%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 25.70%EV -25.66%E -8.02%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 21.6% | 2026-05-10 17:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.99% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.74% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.27% | 2.1% | 2026-05-10 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.99% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.74% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.27% | 2.1% | 2026-05-10 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.99% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.74% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.27% | 2.1% | 2026-05-10 17:25 |