L’École des cotes

TSG Hoffenheim II v 1. FC Saarbrücken

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-10 17:30 UTC

Score final : TSG Hoffenheim II 3–2 1. FC Saarbrücken

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

41 opérateurs (11 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

TSG Hoffenheim II (Local)

Prévision 29.23%3.42cote équitable
EV -3.24%
Avantage -0.979%
Kelly -1.40%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.31

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.49%29.16%29.31%30.11%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.803.133.133.3135.71%31.91%31.95%30.21%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

1. FC Saarbrücken (Visiteur)

Prévision 47.54%2.10cote équitable
EV -5.88%
Avantage -2.97%
Kelly -6.00%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.98

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
44.93%47.64%47.53%49.31%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.751.911.911.9857.14%52.48%52.36%50.51%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 23.23%4.30cote équitable
EV -1.74%
Avantage -0.410%
Kelly -0.537%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.23

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
22.27%23.20%23.16%25.70%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.203.813.754.2331.25%26.23%26.67%23.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (41 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle3.31I 30.21%NM 28.74%EV -3.24%E -0.979%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.78%EV -7.30%E -3.74%K -7.69%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.49%EV -1.74%E -0.410%K -0.537%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 17:25
Tipico (DE)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%EV -9.68%E -5.09%K -10.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -2.43%E -0.579%K -0.760%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-10 17:24
LeoVegas3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -9.20%E -4.82%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -12.89%E -3.44%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-10 17:20
Unibet3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.86%EV -9.68%E -5.09%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-10 17:19
LiveScore Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.86%EV -9.68%E -5.09%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-10 17:20
Virgin Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.86%EV -9.68%E -5.09%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-10 17:20
Grosvenor3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.00%EV -10.15%E -5.37%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-10 17:19
TABtouch3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.00%EV -10.15%E -5.37%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-10 17:19
Unibet (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.00%EV -10.15%E -5.37%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-10 17:20
LeoVegas (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.00%EV -10.15%E -5.37%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-10 17:20
Casumo3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.00%EV -10.15%E -5.37%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-10 17:19
ATG (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.00%EV -10.15%E -5.37%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-10 17:20
Svenska Spel3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -3.53%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.00%EV -10.15%E -5.37%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-10 17:19
BetOnline.ag3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -6.46%E -2.02%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -7.30%E -3.74%K -7.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -7.08%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-10 17:20
LowVig.ag3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -6.46%E -2.02%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -7.30%E -3.74%K -7.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -7.08%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-10 17:20
Betway3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -6.46%E -2.02%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.63%EV -9.20%E -4.82%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -11.72%E -3.09%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-10 17:24
NordicBet3.15I 31.75%NM 29.47%EV -7.92%E -2.51%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -7.30%E -3.74%K -7.69%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.92%EV -5.92%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-10 17:24
Betsson3.15I 31.75%NM 29.47%EV -7.92%E -2.51%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -7.30%E -3.74%K -7.69%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.92%EV -5.92%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-10 17:24
Unibet (UK)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -7.92%E -2.51%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -7.30%E -3.74%K -7.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -7.08%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-10 17:24
PlayUp3.15I 31.75%NM 28.77%EV -7.92%E -2.51%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.69%EV -9.68%E -5.09%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -10.56%E -2.74%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-10 17:20
Suprabets3.13I 31.95%NM 29.01%EV -8.50%E -2.72%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.29%EV -10.63%E -5.65%K -12.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -7.08%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-10 17:18
Coolbet3.10I 32.26%NM 29.93%EV -9.38%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.87%EV -5.88%E -2.97%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -7.08%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-10 17:19
Winamax (DE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.81%EV -9.38%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.64%EV -7.78%E -4.01%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.54%EV -4.76%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-10 17:25
Codere (IT)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.56%EV -9.38%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.24%EV -7.78%E -4.01%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -8.24%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-10 17:24
theScore Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.38%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -9.20%E -4.82%K -10.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.08%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-10 17:20
Fanatics3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -9.38%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -7.30%E -3.74%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -11.72%E -3.09%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-10 17:19
Bovada3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -9.38%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49%EV -9.20%E -4.82%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.40%E -2.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-10 17:16
888sport3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%EV -9.38%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%EV -9.20%E -4.82%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -12.89%E -3.44%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-10 17:19
Mr Green (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%EV -9.38%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%EV -9.20%E -4.82%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -12.89%E -3.44%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-10 17:19
888sport (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%EV -9.38%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%EV -9.20%E -4.82%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -12.89%E -3.44%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-10 17:19
betfred_uk3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -12.30%E -4.10%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.30%EV -9.20%E -4.82%K -10.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.59%EV -7.08%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-10 17:19
Ladbrokes (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -12.30%E -4.10%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -7.30%E -3.74%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-10 17:20
Neds3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -12.30%E -4.10%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -7.30%E -3.74%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-10 17:20
Ladbrokes (AU)3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -12.30%E -4.10%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -7.30%E -3.74%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-10 17:20
Coral3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -12.30%E -4.10%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -7.30%E -3.74%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.05%E -3.80%K -5.20%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-10 17:19
Paddy Power3.00I 33.33%NM 29.47%EV -12.30%E -4.10%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 47.27%EV -11.11%E -5.94%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -11.72%E -3.09%K -4.19%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-10 17:18
SportsBet2.90I 34.48%NM 29.87%EV -15.23%E -5.25%K -8.01%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 47.33%EV -13.01%E -7.11%K -15.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.80%EV -11.72%E -3.09%K -4.19%G +0.000%15.4%2026-05-10 17:20
Sky Bet2.90I 34.48%NM 29.65%EV -15.23%E -5.25%K -8.01%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 46.47%EV -12.06%E -6.52%K -14.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.88%EV -16.37%E -4.55%K -6.30%G +0.000%16.3%2026-05-10 17:19
BoyleSports2.88I 34.72%NM 29.38%EV -15.81%E -5.49%K -8.41%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 48.35%EV -16.81%E -9.61%K -22.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.27%EV -11.72%E -3.09%K -4.19%G +0.000%18.2%2026-05-10 17:19
Bet Victor2.88I 34.72%NM 29.01%EV -15.81%E -5.49%K -8.41%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 46.42%EV -14.43%E -8.02%K -18.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.57%EV -21.02%E -6.18%K -8.76%G +0.000%19.7%2026-05-10 17:22
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 29.37%EV -18.15%E -6.48%K -10.08%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 44.93%EV -13.01%E -7.11%K -15.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 25.70%EV -25.66%E -8.02%K -11.66%G +0.000%21.6%2026-05-10 17:19
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (3)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.50I 28.57%NM 27.99%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.74%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.27%2.1%2026-05-10 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.50I 28.57%NM 27.99%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.74%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.27%2.1%2026-05-10 17:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.50I 28.57%NM 27.99%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.74%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.27%2.1%2026-05-10 17:25