Language:English
Rot-Weiss Essen v MSV Duisburg
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Rot-Weiss Essen (Local)
Prediction 46.69%2.14fair odd
EV -5.22%
Edge -2.57%
Kelly -5.06%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.03
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.48%46.76%46.68%47.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.951.952.0354.64%51.24%51.28%49.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
MSV Duisburg (Visit)
Prediction 26.90%3.72fair odd
EV -0.462%
Edge -0.125%
Kelly -0.171%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.79%26.85%26.86%28.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.323.303.7034.48%30.12%30.30%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.41%3.79fair odd
EV -2.83%
Edge -0.768%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.42%26.39%26.45%28.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.443.503.6834.72%29.08%28.57%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rot-Weiss Essen (Local): 46.69%; MSV Duisburg (Visit): 26.90%; Draw: 26.41%. For MSV Duisburg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.70, with an expected value of -0.462%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.91%EV -5.22%E -2.57%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.21%EV -5.84%E -1.67%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.88%EV -2.83%E -0.768%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-04 14:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.69%EV -5.68%E -2.81%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -9.88%E -2.95%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -8.90%E -2.58%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-04 14:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.69%EV -5.68%E -2.81%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -9.88%E -2.95%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -8.90%E -2.58%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-04 14:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.69%EV -5.68%E -2.81%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -9.88%E -2.95%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -8.90%E -2.58%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-04 14:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 45.82%EV -6.15%E -3.06%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -9.88%E -2.95%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -8.90%E -2.58%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-04 14:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.71%EV -6.62%E -3.31%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%EV -0.462%E -0.125%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-04 14:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.71%EV -6.62%E -3.31%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%EV -0.462%E -0.125%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-04 14:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -6.62%E -3.31%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-04 14:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.63%EV -7.55%E -3.81%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.80%EV -12.57%E -3.87%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -10.22%E -3.01%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-04 14:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.39%EV -8.02%E -4.07%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.15%E -0.876%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-04 14:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.62%EV -8.48%E -4.33%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.28%EV -9.88%E -2.95%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.11%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-04 14:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.43%EV -8.48%E -4.33%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-04 14:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.43%EV -8.48%E -4.33%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-04 14:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.43%EV -8.48%E -4.33%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-04 14:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -8.95%E -4.59%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.84%E -1.67%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -8.95%E -4.59%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.53%E -2.51%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -8.95%E -4.59%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-04 14:18 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -8.95%E -4.59%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-04 14:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -8.95%E -4.59%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-04 14:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -8.95%E -4.59%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-04 14:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -8.95%E -4.59%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-04 14:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -8.95%E -4.59%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-04 14:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -8.95%E -4.59%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-04 14:14 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -8.95%E -4.59%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-04 14:15 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.53%EV -8.95%E -4.59%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 27.33%EV -10.68%E -3.22%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 26.15%EV -8.37%E -2.41%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-04 14:06 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -8.95%E -4.59%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -12.57%E -3.87%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -10.22%E -3.01%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -8.95%E -4.59%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -12.57%E -3.87%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -10.22%E -3.01%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -8.95%E -4.59%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -12.57%E -3.87%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -10.22%E -3.01%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -8.95%E -4.59%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -12.57%E -3.87%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -10.22%E -3.01%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.83%EV -8.95%E -4.59%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -12.86%E -3.90%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.83%EV -8.95%E -4.59%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -12.86%E -3.90%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.83%EV -8.95%E -4.59%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -12.86%E -3.90%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-04 14:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.24%EV -10.82%E -5.66%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -6.26%E -1.76%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-04 14:16 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -10.82%E -5.66%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -8.53%E -2.51%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -10.22%E -3.01%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 45.78%EV -10.82%E -5.66%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.32%EV -13.91%E -4.35%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.90%EV -14.18%E -4.36%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 45.14%EV -10.82%E -5.66%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.74%EV -19.29%E -6.43%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.13%EV -12.86%E -3.90%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-04-04 14:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.98%EV -12.69%E -6.78%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -8.53%E -2.51%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 44.48%EV -12.69%E -6.78%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 28.68%EV -21.98%E -7.58%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 26.83%EV -18.14%E -5.85%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 20.2% | 2026-04-04 14:18 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 47.01%EV -13.15%E -7.07%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.50%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.50%EV -12.86%E -3.90%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 44.93%EV -14.55%E -7.95%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 26.52%EV -16.60%E -5.36%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 28.55%EV -23.95%E -8.32%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 21.6% | 2026-04-04 14:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.17% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.77% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07% | 1.0% | 2026-04-04 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.17% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.77% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07% | 1.0% | 2026-04-04 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.17% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.77% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07% | 1.0% | 2026-04-04 14:15 |