The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Fortuna Düsseldorf v MSV Duisburg

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 12:00 UTC

Final: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2–1 MSV Duisburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

41 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local)

Prediction 36.13%2.77fair odd
EV -4.27%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -2.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.72%36.17%36.11%37.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.502.502.6542.02%40.01%40.00%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

MSV Duisburg (Visit)

Prediction 37.45%2.67fair odd
EV -4.51%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -2.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.14%37.48%37.52%38.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.452.452.5543.48%40.78%40.82%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.43%3.78fair odd
EV +0.429%
Edge +0.113%
Kelly +0.153%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.75%26.35%26.37%27.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.413.403.8031.25%29.36%29.41%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local): 36.13%; MSV Duisburg (Visit): 37.45%; Draw: 26.43%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.429%.

Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -7.88%E -3.09%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.38%EV -8.26%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV +0.429%E +0.113%K +0.153%G +0.001%6.3%2026-09-06 18:45
Pinnacle🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 36.28%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.04%EV -7.51%E -3.04%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.67%EV -3.27%E -0.894%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 16:10
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.27%EV -10.88%E -4.57%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -4.86%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 16:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-09 12:05
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -4.27%E -1.61%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 17:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.40%EV -5.35%E -2.04%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.71%EV -7.88%E -3.20%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.89%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-09 17:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.40%EV -5.35%E -2.04%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.71%EV -7.88%E -3.20%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.89%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-09 17:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -10.41%E -4.20%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 12:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -10.41%E -4.20%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 12:15
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -10.41%E -4.20%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 12:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -10.41%E -4.20%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 12:15
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -10.41%E -4.20%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 12:15
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -10.41%E -4.20%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 12:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -10.41%E -4.20%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 12:15
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -10.41%E -4.20%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 12:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -10.41%E -4.20%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 12:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -10.41%E -4.20%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 12:15
Suprabets🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 36.25%EV -11.85%E -4.86%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 37.80%EV -12.38%E -5.29%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 25.94%EV -9.88%E -2.90%K -4.10%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-09 16:06
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.64%EV -8.96%E -3.56%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.21%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 23:44
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.64%EV -8.96%E -3.56%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.21%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 23:44
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -8.26%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-09 06:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -7.88%E -3.09%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-09 06:54
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -11.49%E -4.69%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -8.26%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-09 12:05
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-09 06:54
theScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.27%EV -7.88%E -3.09%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.27%EV -12.00%E -5.11%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-09 12:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -13.30%E -5.54%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -8.26%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-08 23:44
1xBet🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 36.16%EV -10.05%E -4.04%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.20%EV -9.38%E -3.88%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.64%EV -10.67%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-09 17:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 36.92%EV -11.85%E -4.86%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 36.18%EV -6.76%E -2.71%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.89%EV -11.46%E -3.42%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-08 23:50
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.61%EV -11.49%E -4.69%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.61%EV -8.26%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.78%EV -11.46%E -3.42%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-09 16:04
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.72%EV -6.07%E -2.34%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.93%EV -10.88%E -4.57%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -12.79%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-09 17:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.79%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-09 06:14
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.79%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-09 06:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.79%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-09 06:14
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.79%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-09 06:15
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.79%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-09 16:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.79%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-09 16:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.79%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-09 16:00
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.44%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.71%EV -12.00%E -5.11%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.85%EV -12.79%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-09 06:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.83%EV -13.30%E -5.54%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.38%EV -9.01%E -3.71%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -12.79%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-07 12:15
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.28%EV -14.02%E -5.89%K -10.16%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.55%EV -13.87%E -6.03%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.17%EV -12.79%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-09 16:10
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.33%EV -11.49%E -4.69%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.63%EV -13.87%E -6.03%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.05%EV -15.43%E -4.82%K -7.01%G +0.000%15.5%2026-09-09 06:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 37.06%2.36I 42.37%NM 37.37%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.57%13.4%2026-09-09 17:01
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 37.06%2.36I 42.37%NM 37.37%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.57%13.4%2026-09-09 17:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 37.06%2.36I 42.37%NM 37.37%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.57%13.4%2026-09-09 17:05