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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
+ 新建模型所有模型

Fortuna Düsseldorf v MSV Duisburg

开赛时间： 2026-09-12 12:00 UTC

最终结果： Fortuna Düsseldorf 2–1 MSV Duisburg

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

41 家博彩公司 (11 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Fortuna Düsseldorf (主队)

预测 36.13%2.77公平赔率
EV -4.27%
优势 -1.61%
Kelly -2.59%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.65

博彩公司预测分布
34.72%36.17%36.11%37.24%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.382.502.502.6542.02%40.01%40.00%37.74%最小值均值中位数最大值

MSV Duisburg (客队)

预测 37.45%2.67公平赔率
EV -4.51%
优势 -1.77%
Kelly -2.91%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.55

博彩公司预测分布
36.14%37.48%37.52%38.59%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.302.452.452.5543.48%40.78%40.82%39.22%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 26.43%3.78公平赔率
EV +0.429%
优势 +0.113%
Kelly +0.153%
增长率 +0.001%

假设最高赔率为 3.80

博彩公司预测分布
24.75%26.35%26.37%27.35%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
3.203.413.403.8031.25%29.36%29.41%26.32%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Fortuna Düsseldorf (主队)：36.13%；MSV Duisburg (客队)：37.45%；平局：26.43%。 对于“平局”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为3.78。 当时有1家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为3.80，对应+0.429%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (41 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队平局 ▼利润率更新时间
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -7.88%E -3.09%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.38%EV -8.26%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV +0.429%E +0.113%K +0.153%G +0.001%6.3%2026-09-06 18:45
Pinnacle🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 36.28%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.04%EV -7.51%E -3.04%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.67%EV -3.27%E -0.894%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 16:10
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.27%EV -10.88%E -4.57%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -4.86%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 16:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-09 12:05
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -4.27%E -1.61%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 17:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.40%EV -5.35%E -2.04%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.71%EV -7.88%E -3.20%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.89%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-09 17:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.40%EV -5.35%E -2.04%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.71%EV -7.88%E -3.20%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.89%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-09 17:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -10.41%E -4.20%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 12:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -10.41%E -4.20%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 12:15
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -10.41%E -4.20%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 12:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -10.41%E -4.20%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 12:15
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -10.41%E -4.20%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 12:15
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -10.41%E -4.20%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 12:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -10.41%E -4.20%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 12:15
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -10.41%E -4.20%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 12:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -10.41%E -4.20%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 12:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -10.41%E -4.20%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 12:15
Suprabets🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 36.25%EV -11.85%E -4.86%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 37.80%EV -12.38%E -5.29%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 25.94%EV -9.88%E -2.90%K -4.10%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-09 16:06
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.64%EV -8.96%E -3.56%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.21%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 23:44
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.64%EV -8.96%E -3.56%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.21%EV -4.51%E -1.77%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 23:44
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -8.26%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-09 06:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -7.88%E -3.09%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-09 06:54
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -11.49%E -4.69%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -8.26%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-09 12:05
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-09 06:54
theScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.27%EV -7.88%E -3.09%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.27%EV -12.00%E -5.11%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-09 12:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -13.30%E -5.54%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -8.26%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-08 23:44
1xBet🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 36.16%EV -10.05%E -4.04%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.20%EV -9.38%E -3.88%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.64%EV -10.67%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-09 17:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 36.92%EV -11.85%E -4.86%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 36.18%EV -6.76%E -2.71%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.89%EV -11.46%E -3.42%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-08 23:50
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.61%EV -11.49%E -4.69%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.61%EV -8.26%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.78%EV -11.46%E -3.42%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-09 16:04
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.72%EV -6.07%E -2.34%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.93%EV -10.88%E -4.57%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -12.79%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-09 17:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.79%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-09 06:14
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.79%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-09 06:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.79%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-09 06:14
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.79%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-09 06:15
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.79%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-09 16:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.79%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-09 16:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.13%E -4.22%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.79%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-09 16:00
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.44%EV -9.69%E -3.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.71%EV -12.00%E -5.11%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.85%EV -12.79%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-09 06:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.83%EV -13.30%E -5.54%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.38%EV -9.01%E -3.71%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -12.79%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-07 12:15
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.28%EV -14.02%E -5.89%K -10.16%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.55%EV -13.87%E -6.03%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.17%EV -12.79%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-09 16:10
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.33%EV -11.49%E -4.69%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.63%EV -13.87%E -6.03%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.05%EV -15.43%E -4.82%K -7.01%G +0.000%15.5%2026-09-09 06:54
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (3)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 37.06%2.36I 42.37%NM 37.37%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.57%13.4%2026-09-09 17:01
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 37.06%2.36I 42.37%NM 37.37%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.57%13.4%2026-09-09 17:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 37.06%2.36I 42.37%NM 37.37%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.57%13.4%2026-09-09 17:05