The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

FC Ingolstadt 04 v MSV Duisburg

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

41 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Ingolstadt 04 (Local)

Prediction 37.66%2.66fair odd
EV -3.60%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -2.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.73%37.62%37.71%38.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.422.452.5644.44%41.25%40.82%39.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

MSV Duisburg (Visit)

Prediction 35.24%2.84fair odd
EV +0.439%
Edge +0.154%
Kelly +0.237%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.88%35.16%35.29%36.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.552.502.8543.48%39.26%40.00%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.10%3.69fair odd
EV -3.79%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.89%27.21%27.00%28.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.363.403.5534.72%29.80%29.41%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Ingolstadt 04 (Local): 37.66%; MSV Duisburg (Visit): 35.24%; Draw: 27.10%. For MSV Duisburg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.84. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.439%.

Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.72%EV -3.60%E -1.40%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.88%EV +0.439%E +0.154%K +0.237%G +0.001%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-04 17:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.72%EV -3.60%E -1.40%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.88%EV +0.439%E +0.154%K +0.237%G +0.001%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-04 17:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.86%E -2.34%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -3.08%E -1.12%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -10.57%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-04 17:39
Pinnacle🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.43%EV -3.97%E -1.56%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.83%EV -3.44%E -1.25%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.74%EV -6.77%E -1.97%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-04 17:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.96%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -6.61%E -2.49%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -6.50%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-04 17:35
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.80%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -7.67%E -2.93%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -6.50%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-04 17:35
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.80%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -7.67%E -2.93%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -6.50%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-04 17:35
Suprabets🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 37.27%EV -8.12%E -3.33%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 34.84%EV -8.02%E -3.07%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 27.89%EV -11.65%E -3.57%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-04 17:36
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -8.37%E -3.22%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-04 17:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.47%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -8.37%E -3.22%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -3.79%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-04 17:35
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -8.37%E -3.22%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 17:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.75%EV -8.49%E -3.49%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.28%EV -8.37%E -3.22%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-04 17:40
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -8.37%E -3.22%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -13.28%E -4.15%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-04 17:35
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.44%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.97%EV -10.13%E -3.97%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -6.50%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-04 17:24
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -10.13%E -3.97%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -9.21%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-04 17:40
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.57%EV -11.50%E -4.90%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.54%EV -10.13%E -3.97%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -5.15%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-04 17:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -11.90%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-04 17:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -11.90%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-04 17:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -11.90%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-04 17:25
TABtouch🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -11.90%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-04 17:25
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -11.90%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-04 17:24
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -11.90%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-04 17:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -11.90%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-04 17:25
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -11.90%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-04 17:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -11.90%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-04 17:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -11.90%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-04 17:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -11.90%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-04 17:25
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -5.86%E -2.34%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -11.90%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -10.57%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-04 17:35
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -11.90%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-04 17:35
Neds🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -10.37%E -4.36%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -11.90%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-04 17:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -10.37%E -4.36%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -11.90%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-04 17:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.81%EV -10.75%E -4.54%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.84%EV -11.90%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-04 17:35
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.81%EV -10.75%E -4.54%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.84%EV -11.90%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -7.86%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-04 17:35
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.06%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.58%EV -11.90%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -11.92%E -3.67%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-04 17:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.06%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.58%EV -11.90%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -11.92%E -3.67%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-04 17:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.06%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.58%EV -11.90%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -11.92%E -3.67%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-04 17:35
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.06%EV -13.39%E -5.82%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.01%EV -11.90%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.93%EV -11.92%E -3.67%K -5.30%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-04 17:35
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.94%EV -13.39%E -5.82%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.62%EV -13.66%E -5.57%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.44%EV -10.57%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%14.6%2026-03-04 17:35
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.63%EV -13.39%E -5.82%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.33%EV -13.66%E -5.57%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.05%EV -13.28%E -4.15%K -6.04%G +0.000%15.5%2026-03-04 17:35
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 37.10%EV -15.27%E -6.79%K -12.22%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 35.07%EV -16.12%E -6.77%K -11.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.83%EV -18.70%E -6.23%K -9.35%G +0.000%19.8%2026-03-04 17:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 35.73%EV -13.39%E -5.82%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 35.73%EV -18.94%E -8.24%K -14.57%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 28.54%EV -21.95%E -7.62%K -11.68%G +0.000%21.7%2026-03-04 17:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 36.76%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.69%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.55%1.5%2026-03-04 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.02%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.43%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.54%1.5%2026-03-04 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.02%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.43%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.54%1.5%2026-03-04 17:40