The School of Odds

FC Ingolstadt 04 v FC Würzburger Kickers

2026-08-08 12:00 — 3. Liga - Germany

Head to Head

1 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

FC Ingolstadt 04 (Local)

Prediction 59.56%1.68fair odd
EV -7.69%
Edge -4.96%
Kelly -13.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.56%59.56%59.56%59.56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.551.551.551.55MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
59.56%1.679Min
59.56%1.679Max
59.56%1.679Mean
59.56%1.679Median
59.56%1.679IQM
59.56%1.679Margin-weighted

FC Würzburger Kickers (Visit)

Prediction 18.46%5.42fair odd
EV -7.69%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -1.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.46%18.46%18.46%18.46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.005.005.005.00MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
18.46%5.416Min
18.46%5.416Max
18.46%5.416Mean
18.46%5.416Median
18.46%5.416IQM
18.46%5.416Margin-weighted

Draw

Prediction 21.98%4.55fair odd
EV -7.69%
Edge -1.83%
Kelly -2.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.98%21.98%21.98%21.98%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.204.204.204.20MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
21.98%4.550Min
21.98%4.550Max
21.98%4.550Mean
21.98%4.550Median
21.98%4.550IQM
21.98%4.550Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbooks)

BookmakerFC Ingolstadt 04 (Local) ▼FC Würzburger Kickers (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)1.55I 64.52% NM 59.56%EV -7.69% E -4.96% K -13.97% G +0.000%5.00I 20.00% NM 18.46%EV -7.69% E -1.54% K -1.92% G +0.000%4.20I 23.81% NM 21.98%EV -7.69% E -1.83% K -2.40% G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-08 21:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth