Language:English
Erzgebirge Aue v SC Verl
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Erzgebirge Aue (Local)
Prediction 25.13%3.98fair odd
EV +0.537%
Edge +0.134%
Kelly +0.179%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.21%25.04%25.07%26.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.643.704.0031.25%27.46%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
SC Verl (Visit)
Prediction 51.71%1.93fair odd
EV -4.33%
Edge -2.34%
Kelly -5.09%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.14%51.95%51.71%54.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.751.771.8561.73%57.05%56.50%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.15%4.32fair odd
EV +0.479%
Edge +0.110%
Kelly +0.143%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 4.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.35%23.01%23.22%25.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.853.804.3430.77%25.96%26.32%23.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Erzgebirge Aue (Local): 25.13%; SC Verl (Visit): 51.71%; Draw: 23.15%. For Erzgebirge Aue (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.98. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.537%.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV +0.537%E +0.134%K +0.179%G +0.001% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.36%EV -11.05%E -6.43%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -2.76%E -0.658%K -0.863%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-12 14:01 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -1.98%E -0.507%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 53.57%EV -12.60%E -7.46%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -9.71%E -2.49%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-12 07:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -3.23%E -0.840%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.85%EV -9.50%E -5.43%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -7.39%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-12 07:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.78%EV -12.09%E -7.11%K -17.27%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -12.02%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.51%EV -6.91%E -3.84%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -9.71%E -2.49%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-12 13:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.46%EV -7.95%E -4.47%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -12.02%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-12 14:01 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -6.91%E -3.84%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -9.71%E -2.49%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -6.91%E -3.84%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -9.71%E -2.49%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.32%EV -7.43%E -4.15%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -10.87%E -2.82%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.44%EV -8.47%E -4.78%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -12.02%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 14:01 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.44%EV -8.47%E -4.78%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -12.02%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.44%EV -8.47%E -4.78%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -12.02%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.44%EV -8.47%E -4.78%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -12.02%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.44%EV -8.47%E -4.78%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -12.02%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.44%EV -8.47%E -4.78%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -12.02%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.44%EV -8.47%E -4.78%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -12.02%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 14:01 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.44%EV -8.47%E -4.78%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -12.02%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 14:01 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.44%EV -8.47%E -4.78%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -12.02%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.44%EV -8.47%E -4.78%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -12.02%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.44%EV -8.47%E -4.78%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -12.02%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.53%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.77%EV -11.05%E -6.43%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%EV -7.39%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.68%EV -10.53%E -6.09%K -14.43%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -14.34%E -3.88%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-12 07:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.68%EV -10.53%E -6.09%K -14.43%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -14.34%E -3.88%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-12 07:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.68%EV -10.53%E -6.09%K -14.43%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -14.34%E -3.88%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-12 07:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.68%EV -10.53%E -6.09%K -14.43%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -14.34%E -3.88%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-12 07:24 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -8.26%E -2.26%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.46%EV -6.91%E -3.84%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -7.39%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-12 14:01 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.49%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.54%EV -4.33%E -2.34%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 4.34I 23.04%NM 21.97%EV +0.479%E +0.110%K +0.143%G +0.001% | 4.9% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -6.91%E -3.84%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -7.39%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-12 14:01 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.30%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 52.69%EV -14.15%E -8.53%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.02%EV -12.02%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 3.57I 28.01%NM 25.55%EV -10.27%E -2.88%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.73%EV -10.53%E -6.09%K -14.43%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.72%EV -2.76%E -0.658%K -0.863%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-12 13:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.51I 28.49%NM 26.14%EV -11.78%E -3.36%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.14%EV -5.36%E -2.93%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.87I 25.84%NM 23.71%EV -10.40%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.51I 28.49%NM 26.14%EV -11.78%E -3.36%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.14%EV -5.36%E -2.93%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.87I 25.84%NM 23.71%EV -10.40%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.23%EV -8.47%E -4.78%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.35%EV +0.247%E +0.057%K +0.074%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 13:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.32%EV -9.50%E -5.43%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -9.71%E -2.49%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-12 14:01 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.32%EV -9.50%E -5.43%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -9.71%E -2.49%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.32%EV -9.50%E -5.43%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -9.71%E -2.49%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-12 14:01 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.58%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 51.52%EV -13.64%E -8.17%K -20.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.90%EV -16.65%E -4.63%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-04-12 14:01 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 23.60%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 50.99%EV -16.22%E -10.01%K -26.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 25.41%EV -24.76%E -7.62%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 21.1% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -14.54%E -4.28%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.94%EV -8.47%E -4.78%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -7.39%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.19%EV -17.06%E -5.17%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 50.37%EV -14.67%E -8.89%K -22.57%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 24.44%EV -21.28%E -6.26%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 20.3% | 2026-04-12 13:58 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.77%EV -19.57%E -6.12%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 50.39%EV -12.09%E -7.11%K -17.27%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.84%EV -13.18%E -3.51%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-04-12 14:01 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.29% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53% | 0.9% | 2026-04-12 14:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.60% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.87% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53% | 0.9% | 2026-04-12 14:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.63% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 52.97% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.39% | 1.5% | 2026-04-12 14:00 |