Language:English
Alemannia Aachen v MSV Duisburg
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alemannia Aachen (Local)
Prediction 44.52%2.25fair odd
EV +1.51%
Edge +0.662%
Kelly +1.18%
Growth +0.018%
assuming max odds 2.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.01%44.54%44.47%45.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.112.082.2852.36%47.40%48.08%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
MSV Duisburg (Visit)
Prediction 29.68%3.37fair odd
EV -5.03%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -2.29%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.84%29.81%29.75%33.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.943.003.2036.36%33.99%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.80%3.88fair odd
EV +3.20%
Edge +0.800%
Kelly +1.07%
Growth +0.034%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.34%25.65%25.78%27.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.473.404.0033.33%28.83%29.41%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alemannia Aachen (Local): 44.52%; MSV Duisburg (Visit): 29.68%; Draw: 25.80%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.88. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.20%.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -8.73%E -4.26%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -10.97%E -3.66%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV +3.20%E +0.800%K +1.07%G +0.034% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 06:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.57%EV -7.39%E -3.56%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.38%EV -7.40%E -2.37%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 24.06%EV +1.65%E +0.419%K +0.562%G +0.009% | 5.5% | 2026-04-24 00:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.15%EV -7.39%E -3.56%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -6.51%E -2.07%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -3.25%E -0.867%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-23 17:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.15%EV -7.39%E -3.56%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -6.51%E -2.07%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -3.25%E -0.867%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-23 17:04 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -8.73%E -4.26%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -5.03%E -1.57%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -4.54%E -1.23%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 17:04 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.08%EV -11.85%E -5.98%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 30.46%EV -13.04%E -4.45%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.45%EV -5.83%E -1.60%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-24 03:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.47%EV -7.39%E -3.56%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.84%EV -8.00%E -2.58%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -7.12%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-24 03:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -8.73%E -4.26%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -10.97%E -3.66%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -7.12%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-23 23:52 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -10.96%E -5.48%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.97%E -3.66%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -7.12%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-24 03:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.12%EV -6.50%E -3.10%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -6.51%E -2.07%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -9.70%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 11:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -6.50%E -3.10%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.00%E -2.58%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.70%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-23 11:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -6.50%E -3.10%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.00%E -2.58%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.70%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-23 11:14 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -6.50%E -3.10%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.00%E -2.58%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.70%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-23 23:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -8.73%E -4.26%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -10.97%E -3.66%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -9.70%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-24 03:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -8.73%E -4.26%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -10.97%E -3.66%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -9.70%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-23 11:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -10.96%E -5.48%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -8.00%E -2.58%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -9.70%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-21 11:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.31%EV -13.18%E -6.76%K -13.88%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -10.97%E -3.66%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.24%EV -9.70%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-04-24 03:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 44.89%EV -14.96%E -7.83%K -16.44%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.62%EV -16.90%E -6.04%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.50%EV -9.70%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 16.6% | 2026-04-23 23:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.01%EV +1.51%E +0.662%K +1.18%G +0.018% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -18.38%E -6.69%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-19 17:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.01%EV +1.51%E +0.662%K +1.18%G +0.018% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -18.38%E -6.69%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-19 17:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.01%EV +1.51%E +0.662%K +1.18%G +0.018% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -18.38%E -6.69%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-19 17:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.01%EV +1.51%E +0.662%K +1.18%G +0.018% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -18.38%E -6.69%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-19 17:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.01%EV +1.51%E +0.662%K +1.18%G +0.018% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -18.38%E -6.69%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-19 17:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.01%EV +1.51%E +0.662%K +1.18%G +0.018% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -18.38%E -6.69%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-19 17:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.01%EV +1.51%E +0.662%K +1.18%G +0.018% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -18.38%E -6.69%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-19 17:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.01%EV +1.51%E +0.662%K +1.18%G +0.018% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -18.38%E -6.69%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-19 17:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.01%EV +1.51%E +0.662%K +1.18%G +0.018% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -18.38%E -6.69%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-19 17:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.01%EV +1.51%E +0.662%K +1.18%G +0.018% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -18.38%E -6.69%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-19 17:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.01%EV +1.51%E +0.662%K +1.18%G +0.018% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -18.38%E -6.69%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-19 17:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.01%EV +1.51%E +0.662%K +1.18%G +0.018% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -18.38%E -6.69%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-19 17:05 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.83%EV -8.29%E -4.02%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.61%EV -9.48%E -3.11%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-23 11:14 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.73%E -4.26%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.97%E -3.66%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-23 20:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.73%E -4.26%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.97%E -3.66%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-23 20:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.73%E -4.26%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.97%E -3.66%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-23 20:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.73%E -4.26%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.97%E -3.66%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -12.28%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-23 20:03 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -6.50%E -3.10%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -10.97%E -3.66%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -14.86%E -4.50%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-23 19:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -6.50%E -3.10%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -10.97%E -3.66%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -14.86%E -4.50%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-23 19:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -6.50%E -3.10%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -10.97%E -3.66%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -14.86%E -4.50%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-23 19:34 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 44.18%EV -13.18%E -6.76%K -13.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.71%EV -13.93%E -4.80%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.11%EV -14.86%E -4.50%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 16.1% | 2026-04-24 03:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 43.59%EV -14.96%E -7.83%K -16.44%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 29.73%EV -16.90%E -6.04%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 26.68%EV -19.50%E -6.25%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 20.1% | 2026-04-23 23:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 43.48%EV -14.96%E -7.83%K -16.44%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 28.84%EV -14.53%E -5.04%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 27.68%EV -22.60%E -7.53%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 20.4% | 2026-04-24 03:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.63% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.66% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.71% | 3.7% | 2026-04-24 03:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.63% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.66% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.71% | 3.7% | 2026-04-24 03:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.86% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.54% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60% | 4.2% | 2026-04-24 03:35 |