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Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Bayer Leverkusen (Local)
Prediction 19.65%5.09fair odd
EV +0.191%
Edge +0.037%
Kelly +0.046%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.83%19.74%19.76%20.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.824.805.1022.22%20.74%20.83%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Bayern Munich (Visit)
Prediction 60.72%1.65fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -3.67%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.21%60.62%60.55%61.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.531.531.6167.57%65.33%65.36%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.63%5.09fair odd
EV -1.84%
Edge -0.368%
Kelly -0.460%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.60%19.64%19.69%20.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.774.805.0022.22%20.96%20.83%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bayer Leverkusen (Local): 19.65%; Bayern Munich (Visit): 60.72%; Draw: 19.63%. For Bayer Leverkusen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.09. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.191%.
Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.98%EV +0.191%E +0.037%K +0.046%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.66%EV -4.66%E -2.97%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.36%EV -1.84%E -0.368%K -0.460%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-22 18:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.98%EV +0.191%E +0.037%K +0.046%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.66%EV -4.66%E -2.97%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.36%EV -1.84%E -0.368%K -0.460%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-22 18:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.06%EV -1.77%E -0.355%K -0.443%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.49%EV -5.88%E -3.79%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.45%EV -3.81%E -0.777%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-22 18:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -1.77%E -0.355%K -0.443%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.80%EV -7.09%E -4.64%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.30%EV -3.81%E -0.777%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-22 18:18 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -1.77%E -0.355%K -0.443%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.55%EV -7.09%E -4.64%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.62%EV -5.77%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-22 18:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -1.77%E -0.355%K -0.443%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.55%EV -7.09%E -4.64%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.62%EV -5.77%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-22 18:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -1.77%E -0.355%K -0.443%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.55%EV -7.09%E -4.64%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.62%EV -5.77%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-22 18:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -1.77%E -0.355%K -0.443%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.55%EV -7.09%E -4.64%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.62%EV -5.77%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-22 18:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.91%EV -3.74%E -0.763%K -0.959%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.78%EV -8.92%E -5.94%K -17.83%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.31%EV -5.77%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-22 18:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.91%EV -3.74%E -0.763%K -0.959%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.78%EV -8.92%E -5.94%K -17.83%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.31%EV -5.77%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-22 18:24 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.31%EV -5.70%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.97%EV -7.70%E -5.07%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.72%EV -7.73%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-22 18:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.22%EV -5.70%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.29%EV -7.09%E -4.64%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -11.66%E -2.59%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-22 18:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.22%EV -5.70%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.29%EV -7.09%E -4.64%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -11.66%E -2.59%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-22 18:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.22%EV -5.70%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.29%EV -7.09%E -4.64%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -11.66%E -2.59%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-22 18:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.00%EV -5.70%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.61%EV -10.13%E -6.84%K -21.10%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -7.73%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-22 18:24 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.00%EV -5.70%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.61%EV -10.13%E -6.84%K -21.10%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -7.73%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-22 18:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.00%EV -5.70%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.61%EV -10.13%E -6.84%K -21.10%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -7.73%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-22 18:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -6.69%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.51%EV -5.88%E -3.79%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -6.75%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-22 12:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.95%EV -7.67%E -1.63%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.51%EV -5.88%E -3.79%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -5.77%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-22 12:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.72%EV -9.63%E -2.09%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.21%EV -2.24%E -1.39%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.07%EV -6.75%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-22 14:54 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -9.63%E -2.09%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.25%EV -5.88%E -3.79%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.45%EV -5.77%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-22 18:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -9.63%E -2.09%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.18%EV -7.70%E -5.07%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -1.84%E -0.368%K -0.460%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-22 18:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -9.63%E -2.09%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.27%EV -8.92%E -5.94%K -17.83%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -3.81%E -0.777%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-22 18:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.97%EV -9.63%E -2.09%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.09%E -4.64%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.97%EV -9.69%E -2.11%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-22 17:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -11.60%E -2.58%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -4.66%E -2.97%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -6.75%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 17:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.