Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

SV Darmstadt 98 v Holstein Kiel

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SV Darmstadt 98 (Local)

Prediction 49.43%2.02fair odd
EV -3.62%
Edge -1.86%
Kelly -3.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.30%49.51%49.49%51.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.861.871.9560.24%53.70%53.48%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Holstein Kiel (Visit)

Prediction 25.31%3.95fair odd
EV +5.31%
Edge +1.28%
Kelly +1.68%
Growth +0.089%

assuming max odds 4.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.64%25.12%25.33%26.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.663.654.1629.85%27.33%27.40%24.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.26%3.96fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -0.648%
Kelly -0.875%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.22%25.36%25.18%26.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.623.653.8631.25%27.63%27.40%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SV Darmstadt 98 (Local): 49.43%; Holstein Kiel (Visit): 25.31%; Draw: 25.26%. For Holstein Kiel (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.95. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.16, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.71%EV -7.57%E -4.05%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 23.24%EV +5.31%E +1.28%K +1.68%G +0.089%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.05%EV -2.50%E -0.648%K -0.875%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-07 11:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.52%EV -9.55%E -5.22%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV +3.79%E +0.924%K +1.22%G +0.046%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-07 11:45
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.57%EV -11.03%E -6.13%K -13.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV +3.79%E +0.924%K +1.22%G +0.046%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -9.07%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 11:45
SportsBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -9.55%E -5.22%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV +1.26%E +0.315%K +0.420%G +0.005%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -9.07%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 11:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.98%EV -6.09%E -3.20%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -1.27%E -0.326%K -0.439%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.67%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 11:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.98%EV -6.09%E -3.20%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -1.27%E -0.326%K -0.439%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.67%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 11:54
1xBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.33%EV -6.58%E -3.48%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.71%EV -2.54%E -0.659%K -0.891%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.97%EV -3.76%E -0.988%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 11:55
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -5.60%E -2.93%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -3.80%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -4.02%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 07:00
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.53%EV -5.60%E -2.93%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -3.80%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 11:55
Suprabets🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.65%EV -7.08%E -3.76%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.56%EV -3.80%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.79%EV -8.56%E -2.37%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 11:55
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -11.03%E -6.13%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -3.80%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.59%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-07 11:34
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.92%EV -11.03%E -6.13%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -3.80%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -14.12%E -4.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-07 11:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.67%EV -6.09%E -3.20%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -5.07%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -5.28%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 09:44
Everygame🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.15%EV -6.09%E -3.20%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -5.07%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -9.07%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 11:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.33%EV -6.58%E -3.48%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.06%EV -5.83%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.61%EV -8.06%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 11:54
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.53%EV -5.60%E -2.93%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -6.34%E -1.71%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -4.02%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 05:29
Codere (IT)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.37%EV -5.60%E -2.93%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -6.34%E -1.71%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.28%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 09:44
ATG (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.63%EV -6.58%E -3.48%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -6.34%E -1.71%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -5.28%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-07 11:44
Svenska Spel🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.63%EV -6.58%E -3.48%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -6.34%E -1.71%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -5.28%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-07 11:44
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.73%EV -7.57%E -4.05%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -6.34%E -1.71%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-07 11:55
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -5.60%E -2.93%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.57%EV -7.60%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.57%EV -7.81%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-07 09:44
Unibet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.56%EV -7.57%E -4.05%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.60%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 11:45
Grosvenor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.56%EV -7.57%E -4.05%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.60%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 11:45
Casumo🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.56%EV -7.57%E -4.05%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.60%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 11:44
Unibet (NL)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.56%EV -7.57%E -4.05%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.60%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 11:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.56%EV -7.57%E -4.05%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.60%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 11:45
TABtouch🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.56%EV -7.57%E -4.05%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.60%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 11:44
betPARX🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.56%EV -7.57%E -4.05%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.60%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 11:45
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.83%EV -8.56%E -4.63%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -7.60%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 11:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.83%EV -8.56%E -4.63%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -7.60%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 11:45
Coolbet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -3.62%E -1.86%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -8.87%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -2.75%E -0.715%K -0.966%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 10:54
PlayUp🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.21%EV -5.10%E -2.66%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -8.87%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -10.33%E -2.91%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 11:55
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.08%EV -7.08%E -3.76%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -8.87%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -7.81%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 09:44
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.08%EV -7.08%E -3.76%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -8.87%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -7.81%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 09:49
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -8.56%E -4.63%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -8.87%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-07 11:44
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -5.60%E -2.93%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -8.87%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -14.12%E -4.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-07 11:55
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -5.60%E -2.93%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -8.87%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -14.12%E -4.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-07 11:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -5.60%E -2.93%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -8.87%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -14.12%E -4.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-07 11:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -5.60%E -2.93%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -8.87%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -14.12%E -4.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-07 11:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.68%EV -14.49%E -8.38%K -19.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.87%EV -8.87%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.45%EV -17.91%E -5.51%K -7.96%G +0.000%16.4%2026-03-07 11:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 50.51%EV -17.95%E -10.81%K -27.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.29%EV -8.87%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.20%EV -19.17%E -5.99%K -8.71%G +0.000%19.3%2026-03-07 11:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -5.60%E -2.93%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -11.40%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 10:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.63%EV -6.09%E -3.20%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -11.40%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-07 10:24
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -3.62%E -1.86%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.40%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.59%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 11:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.48%EV -8.07%E -4.34%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.30%EV -11.40%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -4.02%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 09:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.33%EV -10.54%E -5.82%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -11.40%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.15%EV -10.33%E -2.91%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-07 11:37
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.47%EV -11.03%E -6.13%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.44%EV -11.40%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.08%EV -10.33%E -2.91%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-07 11:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.61%EV -11.53%E -6.44%K -14.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -11.40%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.02%EV -10.33%E -2.91%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-07 11:44
Virgin Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.61%EV -11.53%E -6.44%K -14.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -11.40%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.02%EV -10.33%E -2.91%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-07 11:44
NetBet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.11%EV -14.49%E -8.38%K -19.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.13%EV -12.66%E -3.67%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.77%EV -11.59%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%15.4%2026-03-07 11:49
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -8.56%E -4.63%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -13.93%E -4.10%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -11.59%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-05 13:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -8.56%E -4.63%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -13.93%E -4.10%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -11.59%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-06 00:00
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -8.56%E -4.63%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -13.93%E -4.10%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -11.59%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-06 00:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -8.56%E -4.63%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -13.93%E -4.10%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -11.59%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-05 13:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.92%EV -11.03%E -6.13%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.28%EV -15.20%E -4.54%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.80%EV -10.33%E -2.91%K -4.05%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-07 09:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.97I 50.76%NM 50.49%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.68%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.83%0.5%2026-03-07 11:55
Matchbook1.97I 50.76%NM 50.49%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.68%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.83%0.5%2026-03-07 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.98I 50.51%NM 50.07%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75%0.9%2026-03-07 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.98I 50.51%NM 50.07%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75%0.9%2026-03-07 11:55
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 50.53%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.75%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.72%1.0%2026-03-07 11:55
Smarkets1.96I 51.02%NM 50.15%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.98%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.87%1.7%2026-03-07 11:55