La escuela de los momios

SV Darmstadt 98 v Holstein Kiel

Inicio: 2026-03-07 12:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

SV Darmstadt 98 (Local)

Predicción 49.43%2.02momio equitativo
EV -3.62%
Ventaja -1.86%
Kelly -3.81%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.30%49.51%49.49%51.71%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.661.861.871.9560.24%53.70%53.48%51.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Holstein Kiel (Visitante)

Predicción 25.31%3.95momio equitativo
EV +5.31%
Ventaja +1.28%
Kelly +1.68%
Crecimiento +0.089%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.16

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.64%25.12%25.33%26.47%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.353.663.654.1629.85%27.33%27.40%24.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.26%3.96momio equitativo
EV -2.50%
Ventaja -0.648%
Kelly -0.875%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.86

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.22%25.36%25.18%26.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.623.653.8631.25%27.63%27.40%25.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.87I 53.48%NM 51.71%EV -7.57%E -4.05%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 23.24%EV +5.31%E +1.28%K +1.68%G +0.089%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.05%EV -2.50%E -0.648%K -0.875%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-07 11:45
Tipico (DE)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.52%EV -9.55%E -5.22%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV +3.79%E +0.924%K +1.22%G +0.046%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-07 11:45
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 51.57%EV -11.03%E -6.13%K -13.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV +3.79%E +0.924%K +1.22%G +0.046%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -9.07%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 11:45
SportsBet1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -9.55%E -5.22%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV +1.26%E +0.315%K +0.420%G +0.005%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -9.07%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 11:45
BetOnline.ag1.90I 52.63%NM 49.98%EV -6.09%E -3.20%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -1.27%E -0.326%K -0.439%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.67%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 11:55
LowVig.ag1.90I 52.63%NM 49.98%EV -6.09%E -3.20%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -1.27%E -0.326%K -0.439%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.67%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 11:54
1xBet1.89I 52.91%NM 50.33%EV -6.58%E -3.48%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.71%EV -2.54%E -0.659%K -0.891%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.97%EV -3.76%E -0.988%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 11:55
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -5.60%E -2.93%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -3.80%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -4.02%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 07:00
DraftKings1.91I 52.36%NM 49.53%EV -5.60%E -2.93%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -3.80%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 11:55
Suprabets1.88I 53.19%NM 49.65%EV -7.08%E -3.76%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.56%EV -3.80%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.79%EV -8.56%E -2.37%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 11:55
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -11.03%E -6.13%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -3.80%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.59%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-07 11:34
Sky Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 49.92%EV -11.03%E -6.13%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -3.80%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -14.12%E -4.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-07 11:44
Unibet (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.67%EV -6.09%E -3.20%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -5.07%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -5.28%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 09:44
Everygame1.90I 52.63%NM 49.15%EV -6.09%E -3.20%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -5.07%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -9.07%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 11:55
Marathon Bet1.89I 52.91%NM 49.33%EV -6.58%E -3.48%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.06%EV -5.83%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.61%EV -8.06%E -2.21%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 11:54
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 49.53%EV -5.60%E -2.93%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -6.34%E -1.71%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -4.02%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 05:29
Codere (IT)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.37%EV -5.60%E -2.93%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -6.34%E -1.71%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.28%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 09:44
ATG (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 49.63%EV -6.58%E -3.48%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -6.34%E -1.71%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -5.28%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-07 11:44
Svenska Spel1.89I 52.91%NM 49.63%EV -6.58%E -3.48%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -6.34%E -1.71%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -5.28%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-07 11:44
Bet Victor1.87I 53.48%NM 49.73%EV -7.57%E -4.05%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -6.34%E -1.71%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-07 11:55
theScore Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -5.60%E -2.93%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.57%EV -7.60%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.57%EV -7.81%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-07 09:44
Unibet1.87I 53.48%NM 49.56%EV -7.57%E -4.05%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.60%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 11:45
Grosvenor1.87I 53.48%NM 49.56%EV -7.57%E -4.05%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.60%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 11:45
Casumo1.87I 53.48%NM 49.56%EV -7.57%E -4.05%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.60%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 11:44
Unibet (NL)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.56%EV -7.57%E -4.05%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.60%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 11:45
Unibet (SE)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.56%EV -7.57%E -4.05%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.60%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 11:45
TABtouch1.87I 53.48%NM 49.56%EV -7.57%E -4.05%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.60%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 11:44
betPARX1.87I 53.48%NM 49.56%EV -7.57%E -4.05%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.60%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 11:45
BetRivers1.85I 54.05%NM 49.83%EV -8.56%E -4.63%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -7.60%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 11:44
LeoVegas (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.83%EV -8.56%E -4.63%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -7.60%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 11:45
Coolbet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -3.62%E -1.86%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -8.87%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -2.75%E -0.715%K -0.966%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 10:54
PlayUp1.92I 52.08%NM 48.21%EV -5.10%E -2.66%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -8.87%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -10.33%E -2.91%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 11:55
Betsson1.88I 53.19%NM 49.08%EV -7.08%E -3.76%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -8.87%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -7.81%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 09:44
NordicBet1.88I 53.19%NM 49.08%EV -7.08%E -3.76%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -8.87%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -7.81%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 09:49
LeoVegas1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -8.56%E -4.63%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -8.87%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-07 11:44
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -5.60%E -2.93%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -8.87%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -14.12%E -4.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-07 11:55
William Hill1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -5.60%E -2.93%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -8.87%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -14.12%E -4.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-07 11:55
888sport (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -5.60%E -2.93%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -8.87%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -14.12%E -4.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-07 11:55
Mr Green (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -5.60%E -2.93%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -8.87%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -14.12%E -4.15%K -5.88%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-07 11:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 49.68%EV -14.49%E -8.38%K -19.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.87%EV -8.87%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.45%EV -17.91%E -5.51%K -7.96%G +0.000%16.4%2026-03-07 11:45
PMU (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 50.51%EV -17.95%E -10.81%K -27.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.29%EV -8.87%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.20%EV -19.17%E -5.99%K -8.71%G +0.000%19.3%2026-03-07 11:45
PointsBet (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -5.60%E -2.93%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -11.40%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 10:24
Betr (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.63%EV -6.09%E -3.20%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -11.40%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -6.54%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-07 10:24
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -3.62%E -1.86%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.40%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.59%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 11:55
Winamax (DE)1.86I 53.76%NM 49.48%EV -8.07%E -4.34%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.30%EV -11.40%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -4.02%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 09:45
Betclic (FR)1.81I 55.25%NM 49.33%EV -10.54%E -5.82%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -11.40%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.15%EV -10.33%E -2.91%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-07 11:37
Parions Sport (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 49.47%EV -11.03%E -6.13%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.44%EV -11.40%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.08%EV -10.33%E -2.91%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-07 11:35
LiveScore Bet1.79I 55.87%NM 49.61%EV -11.53%E -6.44%K -14.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -11.40%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.02%EV -10.33%E -2.91%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-07 11:44
Virgin Bet1.79I 55.87%NM 49.61%EV -11.53%E -6.44%K -14.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -11.40%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.02%EV -10.33%E -2.91%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-07 11:44
NetBet (FR)1.73I 57.80%NM 50.11%EV -14.49%E -8.38%K -19.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.13%EV -12.66%E -3.67%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.77%EV -11.59%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%15.4%2026-03-07 11:49
Coral1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -8.56%E -4.63%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -13.93%E -4.10%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -11.59%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-05 13:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -8.56%E -4.63%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -13.93%E -4.10%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -11.59%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-06 00:00
Neds1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -8.56%E -4.63%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -13.93%E -4.10%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -11.59%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-06 00:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -8.56%E -4.63%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -13.93%E -4.10%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -11.59%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-05 13:00
Winamax (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 48.92%EV -11.03%E -6.13%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.28%EV -15.20%E -4.54%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.80%EV -10.33%E -2.91%K -4.05%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-07 09:44
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.97I 50.76%NM 50.49%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.68%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.83%0.5%2026-03-07 11:55
Matchbook1.97I 50.76%NM 50.49%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.68%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.83%0.5%2026-03-07 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.98I 50.51%NM 50.07%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75%0.9%2026-03-07 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.98I 50.51%NM 50.07%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75%0.9%2026-03-07 11:55
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 50.53%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.75%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.72%1.0%2026-03-07 11:55
Smarkets1.96I 51.02%NM 50.15%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.98%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.87%1.7%2026-03-07 11:55