Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Karlsruher SC v Arminia Bielefeld

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 11:00 UTC

Final: Karlsruher SC 2–1 Arminia Bielefeld

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Karlsruher SC (Local)

Prediction 33.71%2.97fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -0.772%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.23%33.84%33.74%35.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.722.722.9040.82%36.82%36.76%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arminia Bielefeld (Visit)

Prediction 40.72%2.46fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -0.949%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.73%40.74%40.72%42.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.282.282.4046.51%43.86%43.86%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.57%3.91fair odd
EV +2.28%
Edge +0.571%
Kelly +0.762%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.90%25.42%25.53%26.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.593.604.0030.30%27.89%27.78%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Karlsruher SC (Local): 33.71%; Arminia Bielefeld (Visit): 40.72%; Draw: 25.57%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.91. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.28%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -8.98%E -3.33%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.69%EV -4.31%E -1.84%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.90%EV +2.28%E +0.571%K +0.762%G +0.017%4.6%2026-08-08 10:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.89%EV -8.98%E -3.33%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -0.272%E -0.070%K -0.094%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 10:54
Pinnacle🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.53%EV -3.59%E -1.25%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.69%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.78%EV -1.04%E -0.269%K -0.362%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-08 10:40
Suprabets🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 33.78%EV -6.62%E -2.39%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.40%EV -7.98%E -3.53%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 24.82%EV -3.60%E -0.954%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 10:37
BetOnline.ag🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.14%EV -3.59%E -1.25%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.58%EV -7.16%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.28%EV -4.11%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-08 10:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.14%EV -3.59%E -1.25%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.58%EV -7.16%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.28%EV -4.11%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-08 10:35
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -3.92%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.85%EV -8.38%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -4.11%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 10:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -7.29%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -4.11%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 10:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.98%EV -10.67%E -4.02%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.30%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -4.11%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.98%EV -10.67%E -4.02%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.30%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -4.11%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:45
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.41%EV -12.35%E -4.75%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -4.11%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-08 10:45
FanDuel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -2.24%E -0.772%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -8.38%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -5.39%E -1.46%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 10:53
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -8.38%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -5.39%E -1.46%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:44
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -8.38%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -5.39%E -1.46%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:45
SportsBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -3.92%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -10.42%E -4.74%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -5.39%E -1.46%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 10:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.06%EV -7.63%E -2.79%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.36%EV -5.90%E -1.60%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 10:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.37%EV -4.72%E -2.02%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -6.67%E -1.83%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 10:45
1xBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.74%EV -2.24%E -0.772%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.10%EV -5.94%E -2.57%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.16%EV -7.18%E -1.98%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 10:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -4.31%E -1.84%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 10:40
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 10:35
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.67%E -4.02%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -2.28%E -0.949%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.67%E -4.02%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -2.28%E -0.949%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.67%E -4.02%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -2.28%E -0.949%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:25
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.67%E -4.02%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -2.28%E -0.949%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:25
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.67%E -4.02%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -2.28%E -0.949%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:25
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.67%E -4.02%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -2.28%E -0.949%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.67%E -4.02%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -2.28%E -0.949%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.67%E -4.02%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -2.28%E -0.949%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:25
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.67%E -4.02%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -2.28%E -0.949%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:24
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -7.29%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 10:35
theScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -7.29%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -9.22%E -2.60%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 10:40
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.03%EV -8.38%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -9.22%E -2.60%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-08 10:54
Betsson🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.91%EV -8.31%E -3.05%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -9.22%E -2.60%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 10:40
NordicBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.91%EV -8.31%E -3.05%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -9.22%E -2.60%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 10:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.47%EV -8.98%E -3.33%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.08%EV -10.42%E -4.74%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -9.22%E -2.60%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 10:43
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.31%EV -12.35%E -4.75%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.55%EV -10.42%E -4.74%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -9.22%E -2.60%K -3.62%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-08 10:40
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -8.38%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -10.50%E -3.00%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 10:53
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -7.29%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.38%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.50%E -3.00%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 10:40
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -7.29%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.38%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.50%E -3.00%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 10:55
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -7.29%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.38%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.50%E -3.00%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 10:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -7.29%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.38%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.50%E -3.00%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 10:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -7.29%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.38%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.50%E -3.00%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 10:54
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -12.46%E -5.79%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -10.50%E -3.00%K -4.20%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 10:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -12.46%E -5.79%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -10.50%E -3.00%K -4.20%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 10:55
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.23%EV -14.04%E -5.50%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.73%EV -5.53%E -2.39%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.04%EV -11.78%E -3.41%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-08 10:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.23%EV -14.04%E -5.50%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.73%EV -5.53%E -2.39%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.04%EV -11.78%E -3.41%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-08 10:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -8.98%E -3.33%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -10.42%E -4.74%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -13.06%E -3.84%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 10:35
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -8.98%E -3.33%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -10.42%E -4.74%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -13.06%E -3.84%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 10:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -8.98%E -3.33%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -10.42%E -4.74%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -13.06%E -3.84%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 10:35
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -8.98%E -3.33%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -10.42%E -4.74%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -13.06%E -3.84%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 10:35
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -7.29%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -12.46%E -5.79%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -13.06%E -3.84%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-08 10:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.86%EV -14.04%E -5.50%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.99%EV -7.16%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.15%EV -13.06%E -3.84%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 10:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.86%EV -14.04%E -5.50%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.99%EV -7.16%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.15%EV -13.06%E -3.84%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 10:25
NetBet (FR)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.45%EV -11.68%E -4.46%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.77%EV -12.46%E -5.79%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.78%EV -13.06%E -3.84%K -5.44%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-08 10:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.50%EV -12.35%E -4.75%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.51%EV -12.46%E -5.79%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.00%EV -14.34%E -4.28%K -6.10%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-08 10:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.01%EV -17.41%E -7.11%K -12.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.99%EV -10.42%E -4.74%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.99%EV -15.62%E -4.73%K -6.79%G +0.000%16.6%2026-08-08 10:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.63%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.17%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%0.5%2026-08-08 10:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.63%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.17%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%0.5%2026-08-08 10:50
Matchbook3.05I 32.79%NM 32.63%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.17%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%0.5%2026-08-08 10:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.51%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.38%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.11%0.8%2026-08-08 10:55
Smarkets2.98I 33.56%NM 32.92%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.92%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.15%1.9%2026-08-08 10:45
Kalshi2.94I 34.01%NM 33.05%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.71%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.24%2.9%2026-08-08 10:55

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