L’École des cotes

Karlsruher SC v Arminia Bielefeld

2026-08-08 11:00 UTC — Bundesliga 2 - Germany

Résultat du match

25 opérateurs (8 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Karlsruher SC (Local)

Prévision 40.57%2.47cote équitable
EV -4.27%
Avantage -1.81%
Kelly -3.14%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.36

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
39.52%40.63%40.44%41.49%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.052.232.252.3648.78%44.79%44.44%42.37%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Arminia Bielefeld (Visiteur)

Prévision 34.22%2.92cote équitable
EV -4.18%
Avantage -1.49%
Kelly -2.32%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
33.01%34.25%34.34%35.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.452.642.652.8040.82%37.94%37.74%35.71%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.22%3.97cote équitable
EV +0.860%
Avantage +0.215%
Kelly +0.287%
Croissance +0.002%

avec la cote maximale 4.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.85%25.12%25.22%26.12%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.253.623.604.0030.77%27.64%27.78%25.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (25 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
Coolbet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.47%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -5.90%E -2.14%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.85%EV +0.860%E +0.215%K +0.287%G +0.002%4.8%2026-07-21 23:59
BetMGM2.35I 42.55%NM 40.17%EV -4.67%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -9.32%E -3.52%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -1.66%E -0.426%K -0.573%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-17 09:30
SportsBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -8.73%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.57%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -1.66%E -0.426%K -0.573%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-22 00:00
FanDuel2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -8.73%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.57%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -1.66%E -0.426%K -0.573%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-21 23:59
Tipico (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.18%EV -4.67%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.97%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%EV -4.18%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-18 13:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.40%EV -10.76%E -4.89%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.63%EV -10.00%E -3.80%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -4.18%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-21 23:59
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 41.35%EV -10.76%E -4.89%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.72%EV -10.34%E -3.95%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -4.18%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-22 00:00
Bovada2.30I 43.48%NM 39.77%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.18%EV -11.03%E -4.24%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.06%EV -7.97%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-24 21:14
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.36%EV -10.76%E -4.89%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -7.97%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-13 05:34
Codere (IT)2.27I 44.05%NM 40.96%EV -7.92%E -3.49%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.21%EV -4.18%E -1.49%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -9.23%E -2.56%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-13 10:40
Ladbrokes (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.60%EV -8.73%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.64%EV -14.45%E -5.78%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -9.23%E -2.56%K -3.55%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-17 09:30
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 39.60%EV -8.73%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.64%EV -14.45%E -5.78%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -9.23%E -2.56%K -3.55%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-17 09:30
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.60%EV -8.73%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.64%EV -14.45%E -5.78%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -9.23%E -2.56%K -3.55%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-17 09:30
Coral2.25I 44.44%NM 39.60%EV -8.73%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.64%EV -14.45%E -5.78%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -9.23%E -2.56%K -3.55%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-17 09:29
1xBet2.36I 42.37%NM 39.52%EV -4.27%E -1.81%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.42%EV -7.26%E -2.68%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.06%EV -9.73%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-14 12:59
Marathon Bet2.36I 42.37%NM 39.52%EV -4.27%E -1.81%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.42%EV -7.26%E -2.68%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.06%EV -9.73%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-14 12:59
Betsson2.28I 43.86%NM 40.61%EV -7.51%E -3.29%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.31%EV -4.87%E -1.75%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -10.49%E -2.95%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-13 12:15
NordicBet2.28I 43.86%NM 40.61%EV -7.51%E -3.29%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.31%EV -4.87%E -1.75%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -10.49%E -2.95%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-13 12:14
LeoVegas2.20I 45.45%NM 41.08%EV -10.76%E -4.89%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.47%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -10.49%E -2.95%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-22 07:31
Unibet (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.73%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -5.90%E -2.14%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -11.75%E -3.36%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-13 12:14
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 40.42%EV -12.78%E -5.95%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.76%EV -14.45%E -5.78%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.83%EV -11.75%E -3.36%K -4.70%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-22 00:00
Betclic (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.18%EV -14.81%E -7.05%K -13.47%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.01%EV -10.34%E -3.95%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.81%EV -15.53%E -4.64%K -6.61%G +0.000%15.6%2026-07-24 11:10
NetBet (FR)2.07I 48.31%NM 40.60%EV -16.03%E -7.74%K -14.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.31%EV -16.16%E -6.60%K -11.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.09%EV -15.53%E -4.64%K -6.61%G +0.000%19.0%2026-07-22 13:43
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 40.96%EV -16.84%E -8.22%K -16.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.59%EV -14.45%E -5.78%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.45%EV -16.79%E -5.09%K -7.30%G +0.000%19.1%2026-07-13 05:34
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 41.07%EV -16.84%E -8.22%K -16.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.02%EV -12.74%E -5.00%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.91%EV -18.05%E -5.55%K -8.02%G +0.000%18.8%2026-07-13 10:40
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets2.12I 47.17%NM 40.42%2.58I 38.76%NM 33.21%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.37%16.7%2026-07-13 10:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.24I 80.65%NM 31.10%1.24I 80.65%NM 31.10%1.02I 98.04%NM 37.80%159.3%2026-07-24 13:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.24I 80.65%NM 31.10%1.24I 80.65%NM 31.10%1.02I 98.04%NM 37.80%159.3%2026-07-24 13:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.24I 80.65%NM 31.10%1.24I 80.65%NM 31.10%1.02I 98.04%NM 37.80%159.3%2026-07-24 13:25