Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Karlsruher SC v Arminia Bielefeld

Inicio: 2026-08-08 11:00 UTC

Final: Karlsruher SC 2–1 Arminia Bielefeld

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Karlsruher SC (Local)

Predicción 33.71%2.97momio equitativo
EV -2.24%
Ventaja -0.772%
Kelly -1.18%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.23%33.84%33.74%35.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.452.722.722.9040.82%36.82%36.76%34.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Arminia Bielefeld (Visitante)

Predicción 40.72%2.46momio equitativo
EV -2.28%
Ventaja -0.949%
Kelly -1.63%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.73%40.74%40.72%42.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.152.282.282.4046.51%43.86%43.86%41.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.57%3.91momio equitativo
EV +2.28%
Ventaja +0.571%
Kelly +0.762%
Crecimiento +0.017%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.90%25.42%25.53%26.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.593.604.0030.30%27.89%27.78%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Karlsruher SC (Local): 33.71%; Arminia Bielefeld (Visitante): 40.72%; Empate: 25.57%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.91. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.28%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -8.98%E -3.33%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.69%EV -4.31%E -1.84%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.90%EV +2.28%E +0.571%K +0.762%G +0.017%4.6%2026-08-08 10:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.89%EV -8.98%E -3.33%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -0.272%E -0.070%K -0.094%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 10:54
Pinnacle🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.53%EV -3.59%E -1.25%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.69%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.78%EV -1.04%E -0.269%K -0.362%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-08 10:40
Suprabets🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 33.78%EV -6.62%E -2.39%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.40%EV -7.98%E -3.53%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 24.82%EV -3.60%E -0.954%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 10:37
BetOnline.ag🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.14%EV -3.59%E -1.25%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.58%EV -7.16%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.28%EV -4.11%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-08 10:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.14%EV -3.59%E -1.25%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.58%EV -7.16%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.28%EV -4.11%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-08 10:35
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -3.92%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.85%EV -8.38%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -4.11%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 10:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -7.29%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -4.11%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 10:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.98%EV -10.67%E -4.02%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.30%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -4.11%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.98%EV -10.67%E -4.02%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.30%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -4.11%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:45
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.41%EV -12.35%E -4.75%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -4.11%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-08 10:45
FanDuel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -2.24%E -0.772%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -8.38%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -5.39%E -1.46%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 10:53
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -8.38%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -5.39%E -1.46%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:44
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -8.38%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -5.39%E -1.46%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:45
SportsBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -3.92%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -10.42%E -4.74%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -5.39%E -1.46%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 10:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.06%EV -7.63%E -2.79%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.36%EV -5.90%E -1.60%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 10:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.37%EV -4.72%E -2.02%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -6.67%E -1.83%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 10:45
1xBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.74%EV -2.24%E -0.772%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.10%EV -5.94%E -2.57%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.16%EV -7.18%E -1.98%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 10:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -4.31%E -1.84%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 10:40
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 10:35
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.67%E -4.02%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -2.28%E -0.949%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.67%E -4.02%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -2.28%E -0.949%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.67%E -4.02%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -2.28%E -0.949%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:25
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.67%E -4.02%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -2.28%E -0.949%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:25
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.67%E -4.02%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -2.28%E -0.949%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:25
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.67%E -4.02%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -2.28%E -0.949%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.67%E -4.02%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -2.28%E -0.949%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.67%E -4.02%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -2.28%E -0.949%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:25
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.67%E -4.02%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -2.28%E -0.949%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 10:24
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -7.29%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.94%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 10:35
theScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -7.29%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -9.22%E -2.60%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 10:40
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.03%EV -8.38%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -9.22%E -2.60%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-08 10:54
Betsson🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.91%EV -8.31%E -3.05%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -9.22%E -2.60%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 10:40
NordicBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.91%EV -8.31%E -3.05%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -9.22%E -2.60%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 10:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.47%EV -8.98%E -3.33%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.08%EV -10.42%E -4.74%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -9.22%E -2.60%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 10:43
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.31%EV -12.35%E -4.75%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.55%EV -10.42%E -4.74%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -9.22%E -2.60%K -3.62%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-08 10:40
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -8.38%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -10.50%E -3.00%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 10:53
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -7.29%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.38%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.50%E -3.00%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 10:40
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -7.29%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.38%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.50%E -3.00%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 10:55
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -7.29%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.38%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.50%E -3.00%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 10:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -7.29%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.38%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.50%E -3.00%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 10:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -7.29%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.38%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.50%E -3.00%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 10:54
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -12.46%E -5.79%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -10.50%E -3.00%K -4.20%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 10:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -12.46%E -5.79%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -10.50%E -3.00%K -4.20%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 10:55
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.23%EV -14.04%E -5.50%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.73%EV -5.53%E -2.39%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.04%EV -11.78%E -3.41%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-08 10:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.23%EV -14.04%E -5.50%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.73%EV -5.53%E -2.39%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.04%EV -11.78%E -3.41%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-08 10:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -8.98%E -3.33%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -10.42%E -4.74%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -13.06%E -3.84%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 10:35
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -8.98%E -3.33%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -10.42%E -4.74%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -13.06%E -3.84%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 10:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -8.98%E -3.33%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -10.42%E -4.74%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -13.06%E -3.84%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 10:35
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -8.98%E -3.33%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -10.42%E -4.74%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -13.06%E -3.84%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 10:35
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -7.29%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -12.46%E -5.79%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -13.06%E -3.84%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-08 10:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.86%EV -14.04%E -5.50%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.99%EV -7.16%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.15%EV -13.06%E -3.84%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 10:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.86%EV -14.04%E -5.50%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.99%EV -7.16%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.15%EV -13.06%E -3.84%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 10:25
NetBet (FR)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.45%EV -11.68%E -4.46%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.77%EV -12.46%E -5.79%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.78%EV -13.06%E -3.84%K -5.44%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-08 10:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.50%EV -12.35%E -4.75%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.51%EV -12.46%E -5.79%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.00%EV -14.34%E -4.28%K -6.10%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-08 10:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.01%EV -17.41%E -7.11%K -12.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.99%EV -10.42%E -4.74%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.99%EV -15.62%E -4.73%K -6.79%G +0.000%16.6%2026-08-08 10:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.63%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.17%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%0.5%2026-08-08 10:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.63%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.17%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%0.5%2026-08-08 10:50
Matchbook3.05I 32.79%NM 32.63%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.17%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%0.5%2026-08-08 10:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.51%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.38%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.11%0.8%2026-08-08 10:55
Smarkets2.98I 33.56%NM 32.92%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.92%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.15%1.9%2026-08-08 10:45
Kalshi2.94I 34.01%NM 33.05%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.71%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.24%2.9%2026-08-08 10:55