Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Holstein Kiel v Eintracht Braunschweig

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 11:00 UTC

Final: Holstein Kiel 2–0 Eintracht Braunschweig

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Holstein Kiel (Local)

Prediction 38.30%2.61fair odd
EV -1.94%
Edge -0.758%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.92%38.36%38.36%42.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.362.402.5647.62%42.34%41.67%39.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Eintracht Braunschweig (Visit)

Prediction 33.37%3.00fair odd
EV +1.79%
Edge +0.588%
Kelly +0.874%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.75%33.29%33.29%34.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.822.803.0539.22%35.48%35.71%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.32%3.53fair odd
EV -0.877%
Edge -0.251%
Kelly -0.351%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.05%28.35%28.35%29.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.273.303.5034.72%30.58%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Holstein Kiel (Local): 38.30%; Eintracht Braunschweig (Visit): 33.37%; Draw: 28.32%. For Eintracht Braunschweig (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.00. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.79%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.06%EV -14.58%E -6.54%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.75%EV +1.79%E +0.588%K +0.874%G +0.016%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -2.29%E -0.665%K -0.936%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 10:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.06%EV -14.58%E -6.54%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.75%EV +1.79%E +0.588%K +0.874%G +0.016%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -2.29%E -0.665%K -0.936%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 10:50
Pinnacle🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.73%EV -4.24%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28%EV +0.123%E +0.041%K +0.062%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.99%EV -5.41%E -1.62%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-02 10:45
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -14.58%E -6.54%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV +0.123%E +0.041%K +0.062%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -2.29%E -0.665%K -0.936%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 10:50
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -14.58%E -6.54%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV +0.123%E +0.041%K +0.062%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -2.29%E -0.665%K -0.936%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 10:50
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -14.58%E -6.54%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV +0.123%E +0.041%K +0.062%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -2.29%E -0.665%K -0.936%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 10:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -14.58%E -6.54%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV +0.123%E +0.041%K +0.062%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -2.29%E -0.665%K -0.936%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 10:50
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -14.58%E -6.54%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV +0.123%E +0.041%K +0.062%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -2.29%E -0.665%K -0.936%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 10:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -14.58%E -6.54%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV +0.123%E +0.041%K +0.062%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -2.29%E -0.665%K -0.936%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 10:50
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -14.58%E -6.54%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV +0.123%E +0.041%K +0.062%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -2.29%E -0.665%K -0.936%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 10:50
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -15.73%E -7.15%K -13.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV +0.123%E +0.041%K +0.062%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -3.71%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 10:50
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -15.73%E -7.15%K -13.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV +0.123%E +0.041%K +0.062%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -3.71%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 10:48
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -15.73%E -7.15%K -13.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV +0.123%E +0.041%K +0.062%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -3.71%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 10:51
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -8.07%E -3.36%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -3.21%E -1.11%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -7.96%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 10:45
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -8.07%E -3.36%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -3.21%E -1.11%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 10:44
Virgin Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.13%EV -18.79%E -8.87%K -16.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.80%EV -3.21%E -1.11%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-02 10:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.13%EV -18.79%E -8.87%K -16.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.80%EV -3.21%E -1.11%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-02 10:50
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.67%EV -8.07%E -3.36%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.33%EV -4.22%E -1.47%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 10:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -6.15%E -2.51%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.88%E -1.71%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 10:55
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -6.15%E -2.51%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.88%E -1.71%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 10:50
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -6.15%E -2.51%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.88%E -1.71%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 10:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.96%EV -19.56%E -9.31%K -17.78%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.92%EV -4.88%E -1.71%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.12%EV -7.96%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-02 10:51
Marathon Bet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.54%EV -7.30%E -3.02%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 32.84%EV -5.22%E -1.84%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.61%EV -7.67%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 10:50
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.83%EV -6.15%E -2.51%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.98%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -0.877%E -0.251%K -0.351%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 10:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.18%EV -5.39%E -2.18%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -5.13%E -1.53%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 10:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.37%EV -6.15%E -2.51%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.57%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.06%EV -5.13%E -1.53%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 10:55
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -6.15%E -2.51%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 10:55
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -6.15%E -2.51%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 10:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -6.15%E -2.51%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 10:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -6.15%E -2.51%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 10:55
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -11.90%E -5.17%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-02 10:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.92%EV -1.94%E -0.758%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.00%EV -7.22%E -2.60%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.08%EV -7.96%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 10:51
LowVig.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.92%EV -1.94%E -0.758%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.00%EV -7.22%E -2.60%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.08%EV -7.96%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 10:51
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.24%EV -7.30%E -3.02%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.29%EV -7.22%E -2.60%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -7.96%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-02 10:55
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.24%EV -7.30%E -3.02%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.29%EV -7.22%E -2.60%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -7.96%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-02 10:55
1xBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.00%EV -4.24%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.54%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.46%EV -2.01%E -0.581%K -0.817%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 10:55
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.24%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 10:55
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.15%E -2.51%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 10:54
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.15%E -2.51%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 10:55
Everygame🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -4.24%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 10:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.07%E -3.36%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 10:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.07%E -3.36%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 10:55
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -8.83%E -3.71%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:54
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -11.90%E -5.17%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -15.04%E -5.01%K -7.52%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-02 10:45
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -4.24%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 10:50
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -4.24%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 10:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.38%EV -8.07%E -3.36%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -5.13%E -1.53%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 10:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -11.90%E -5.17%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-02 10:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.53%EV -11.13%E -4.80%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 33.36%EV -10.56%E -3.94%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.11%EV -9.94%E -3.13%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-02 10:55
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.22%EV -8.07%E -3.36%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.96%EV -12.23%E -4.65%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.82%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-02 10:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.22%EV -8.07%E -3.36%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.96%EV -12.23%E -4.65%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.82%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-02 10:55
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -8.07%E -3.36%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.05%EV -12.56%E -4.79%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-02 10:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -8.07%E -3.36%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.05%EV -12.56%E -4.79%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-02 10:55
NetBet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.69%EV -13.81%E -6.14%K -11.05%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.23%EV -12.56%E -4.79%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.08%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-02 10:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.27%EV -11.90%E -5.17%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.97%EV -13.23%E -5.09%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.76%EV -18.44%E -6.40%K -9.81%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-02 10:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.16%EV -11.90%E -5.17%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.42%EV -14.90%E -5.84%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.43%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-02 10:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.63I 38.02%NM 38.39%3.03I 33.00%NM 33.32%3.57I 28.01%NM 28.28%-1.0%2026-05-02 10:55
Matchbook2.66I 37.59%NM 37.21%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.67%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.11%1.0%2026-05-02 10:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.48%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.42%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10%1.1%2026-05-02 10:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.48%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.42%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10%1.1%2026-05-02 10:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.39%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.58%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.03%1.3%2026-05-02 10:55
Smarkets2.64I 37.88%NM 37.06%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.74%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.20%2.2%2026-05-02 10:55