La escuela de los momios

Holstein Kiel v Eintracht Braunschweig

Inicio: 2026-05-02 11:00 UTC

Final: Holstein Kiel 2–0 Eintracht Braunschweig

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Holstein Kiel (Local)

Predicción 38.30%2.61momio equitativo
EV -1.94%
Ventaja -0.758%
Kelly -1.24%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.56

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.92%38.36%38.36%42.13%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.102.362.402.5647.62%42.34%41.67%39.06%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Eintracht Braunschweig (Visitante)

Predicción 33.37%3.00momio equitativo
EV +1.79%
Ventaja +0.588%
Kelly +0.874%
Crecimiento +0.016%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.75%33.29%33.29%34.54%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.552.822.803.0539.22%35.48%35.71%32.79%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.32%3.53momio equitativo
EV -0.877%
Ventaja -0.251%
Kelly -0.351%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.05%28.35%28.35%29.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.273.303.5034.72%30.58%30.30%28.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 42.06%EV -14.58%E -6.54%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.75%EV +1.79%E +0.588%K +0.874%G +0.016%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -2.29%E -0.665%K -0.936%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 10:50
Svenska Spel2.23I 44.84%NM 42.06%EV -14.58%E -6.54%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.75%EV +1.79%E +0.588%K +0.874%G +0.016%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -2.29%E -0.665%K -0.936%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 10:50
Pinnacle2.50I 40.00%NM 38.73%EV -4.24%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28%EV +0.123%E +0.041%K +0.062%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.99%EV -5.41%E -1.62%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-02 10:45
Unibet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -14.58%E -6.54%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV +0.123%E +0.041%K +0.062%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -2.29%E -0.665%K -0.936%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 10:50
Casumo2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -14.58%E -6.54%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV +0.123%E +0.041%K +0.062%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -2.29%E -0.665%K -0.936%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 10:50
TABtouch2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -14.58%E -6.54%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV +0.123%E +0.041%K +0.062%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -2.29%E -0.665%K -0.936%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 10:50
Unibet (NL)2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -14.58%E -6.54%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV +0.123%E +0.041%K +0.062%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -2.29%E -0.665%K -0.936%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 10:50
Grosvenor2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -14.58%E -6.54%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV +0.123%E +0.041%K +0.062%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -2.29%E -0.665%K -0.936%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 10:50
Unibet (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -14.58%E -6.54%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV +0.123%E +0.041%K +0.062%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -2.29%E -0.665%K -0.936%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 10:50
betPARX2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -14.58%E -6.54%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV +0.123%E +0.041%K +0.062%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -2.29%E -0.665%K -0.936%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 10:50
BetRivers2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -15.73%E -7.15%K -13.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV +0.123%E +0.041%K +0.062%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -3.71%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 10:50
LeoVegas2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -15.73%E -7.15%K -13.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV +0.123%E +0.041%K +0.062%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -3.71%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 10:48
LeoVegas (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -15.73%E -7.15%K -13.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV +0.123%E +0.041%K +0.062%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -3.71%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 10:51
Bovada2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -8.07%E -3.36%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -3.21%E -1.11%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -7.96%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 10:45
FanDuel2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -8.07%E -3.36%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -3.21%E -1.11%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 10:44
Virgin Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 42.13%EV -18.79%E -8.87%K -16.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.80%EV -3.21%E -1.11%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-02 10:50
LiveScore Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 42.13%EV -18.79%E -8.87%K -16.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.80%EV -3.21%E -1.11%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-02 10:50
SportsBet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.67%EV -8.07%E -3.36%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.33%EV -4.22%E -1.47%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 10:45
Tipico (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -6.15%E -2.51%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.88%E -1.71%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 10:55
Fanatics2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -6.15%E -2.51%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.88%E -1.71%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 10:50
DraftKings2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -6.15%E -2.51%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.88%E -1.71%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 10:50
PMU (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.96%EV -19.56%E -9.31%K -17.78%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.92%EV -4.88%E -1.71%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.12%EV -7.96%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-02 10:51
Marathon Bet2.42I 41.32%NM 38.54%EV -7.30%E -3.02%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 32.84%EV -5.22%E -1.84%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.61%EV -7.67%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 10:50
Coolbet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.83%EV -6.15%E -2.51%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.98%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -0.877%E -0.251%K -0.351%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 10:55
Codere (IT)2.47I 40.49%NM 38.18%EV -5.39%E -2.18%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -5.13%E -1.53%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 10:55
Unibet (UK)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.37%EV -6.15%E -2.51%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.57%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.06%EV -5.13%E -1.53%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 10:55
888sport2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -6.15%E -2.51%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 10:55
William Hill2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -6.15%E -2.51%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 10:55
Mr Green (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -6.15%E -2.51%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 10:55
888sport (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -6.15%E -2.51%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 10:55
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -11.90%E -5.17%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-02 10:45
BetOnline.ag2.56I 39.06%NM 36.92%EV -1.94%E -0.758%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.00%EV -7.22%E -2.60%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.08%EV -7.96%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 10:51
LowVig.ag2.56I 39.06%NM 36.92%EV -1.94%E -0.758%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.00%EV -7.22%E -2.60%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.08%EV -7.96%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 10:51
NordicBet2.42I 41.32%NM 38.24%EV -7.30%E -3.02%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.29%EV -7.22%E -2.60%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -7.96%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-02 10:55
Betsson2.42I 41.32%NM 38.24%EV -7.30%E -3.02%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.29%EV -7.22%E -2.60%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -7.96%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-02 10:55
1xBet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.00%EV -4.24%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.54%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.46%EV -2.01%E -0.581%K -0.817%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 10:55
BetMGM2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.24%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 10:55
Bet Victor2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.15%E -2.51%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 10:54
theScore Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.15%E -2.51%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 10:55
Everygame2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -4.24%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 10:50
PointsBet (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.07%E -3.36%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 10:55
Betr (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.07%E -3.36%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 10:55
betfred_uk2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -8.83%E -3.71%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:54
Sky Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -11.90%E -5.17%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -8.22%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -15.04%E -5.01%K -7.52%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-02 10:45
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -4.24%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 10:50
PlayUp2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -4.24%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 10:50
Winamax (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.38%EV -8.07%E -3.36%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -5.13%E -1.53%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 10:55
Unibet (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -11.90%E -5.17%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -9.89%E -3.66%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-02 10:55
Betclic (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 38.53%EV -11.13%E -4.80%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 33.36%EV -10.56%E -3.94%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.11%EV -9.94%E -3.13%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-02 10:55
Neds2.40I 41.67%NM 37.22%EV -8.07%E -3.36%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.96%EV -12.23%E -4.65%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.82%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-02 10:55
Ladbrokes (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.22%EV -8.07%E -3.36%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.96%EV -12.23%E -4.65%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.82%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-02 10:55
Coral2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -8.07%E -3.36%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.05%EV -12.56%E -4.79%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-02 10:55
Ladbrokes (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -8.07%E -3.36%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.05%EV -12.56%E -4.79%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-02 10:55
NetBet (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 38.69%EV -13.81%E -6.14%K -11.05%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.23%EV -12.56%E -4.79%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.08%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-02 10:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 37.27%EV -11.90%E -5.17%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.97%EV -13.23%E -5.09%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.76%EV -18.44%E -6.40%K -9.81%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-02 10:45
Winamax (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.16%EV -11.90%E -5.17%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.42%EV -14.90%E -5.84%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.43%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-02 10:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi2.63I 38.02%NM 38.39%3.03I 33.00%NM 33.32%3.57I 28.01%NM 28.28%-1.0%2026-05-02 10:55
Matchbook2.66I 37.59%NM 37.21%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.67%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.11%1.0%2026-05-02 10:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.48%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.42%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10%1.1%2026-05-02 10:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.48%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.42%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10%1.1%2026-05-02 10:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.39%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.58%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.03%1.3%2026-05-02 10:55
Smarkets2.64I 37.88%NM 37.06%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.74%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.20%2.2%2026-05-02 10:55