Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hertha Berlin v 1. FC Nürnberg

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 12:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hertha Berlin (Local)

Prediction 43.67%2.29fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -0.771%
Kelly -1.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.00%43.85%43.67%46.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.082.102.2552.08%48.11%47.62%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Nürnberg (Visit)

Prediction 29.65%3.37fair odd
EV -0.682%
Edge -0.204%
Kelly -0.290%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.06%29.57%29.64%30.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.153.153.3535.71%31.77%31.75%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.68%3.75fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.347%
Kelly -0.476%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.41%26.58%26.69%28.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.483.503.7033.33%28.70%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hertha Berlin (Local): 43.67%; 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit): 29.65%; Draw: 26.68%. For 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.37. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.35, with an expected value of -0.682%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.11%EV -1.74%E -0.771%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.94%EV -3.94%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.95%EV -3.95%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-01 12:09
BetOnline.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.11%EV -1.74%E -0.771%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.94%EV -3.94%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.95%EV -3.95%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-01 12:09
Pinnacle🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.61%EV -3.05%E -1.37%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.79%EV -3.65%E -1.12%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.60%EV -2.89%E -0.793%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-01 12:15
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.97%EV -3.92%E -1.78%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -6.61%E -2.10%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.01%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-01 12:14
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.04%EV -5.23%E -2.41%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.41%EV -3.65%E -1.12%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.55%EV -3.95%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-01 11:33
Codere (IT)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.68%EV -5.23%E -2.41%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.62%EV -5.13%E -1.60%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.70%EV -5.29%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-01 12:09
Marathon Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.15%EV -5.67%E -2.62%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.07%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.78%EV -7.15%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-01 12:24
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.10%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.13%E -1.60%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-01 12:24
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.10%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.13%E -1.60%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-01 12:14
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.54%EV -6.10%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -6.61%E -2.10%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-01 12:09
Suprabets🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.49%EV -6.10%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 29.87%EV -7.20%E -2.30%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 26.64%EV -6.35%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 12:09
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -6.10%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -6.61%E -2.10%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -7.96%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-01 12:09
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.10%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-01 12:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -6.10%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -6.61%E -2.10%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 11:34
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.10%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-01 12:09
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.10%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-01 11:19
1xBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.44%EV -6.54%E -3.06%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.39%EV -0.682%E -0.204%K -0.290%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.17%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-01 12:24
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.51%EV -7.41%E -3.50%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -7.96%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-01 12:09
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.51%EV -7.41%E -3.50%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -7.96%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-01 12:09
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -2.16%E -0.656%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -3.95%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-01 11:59
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -5.13%E -1.60%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -1.29%E -0.347%K -0.476%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-01 11:19
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -5.13%E -1.60%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-01 12:13
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -3.95%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 12:23
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-01 11:34
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -9.58%E -3.14%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -5.29%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-01 12:09
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.96%E -3.62%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-01 11:24
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.96%E -3.62%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-01 11:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.96%E -3.62%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-01 11:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.96%E -3.62%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-01 11:24
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -11.06%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.96%E -3.62%K -5.20%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-01 12:08
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -11.06%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -13.29%E -4.09%K -5.91%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-01 12:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.47%E -5.11%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.06%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-01 11:19
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.47%E -5.11%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.06%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-01 11:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.47%E -5.11%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.06%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-01 11:19
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.47%E -5.11%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.06%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-01 11:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 43.90%EV -11.34%E -5.59%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 29.51%EV -10.47%E -3.47%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.60%EV -10.62%E -3.17%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-01 12:08
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.53%EV -11.78%E -5.83%K -11.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.06%EV -0.682%E -0.204%K -0.290%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -1.29%E -0.347%K -0.476%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 12:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.53%EV -11.78%E -5.83%K -11.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.06%EV -0.682%E -0.204%K -0.290%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -1.29%E -0.347%K -0.476%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 12:14
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.43%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -2.16%E -0.656%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -2.62%E -0.718%K -0.988%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 12:14
TABtouch🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.43%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -2.16%E -0.656%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -2.62%E -0.718%K -0.988%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 12:14
Unibet (NL)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.43%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -2.16%E -0.656%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -2.62%E -0.718%K -0.988%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 12:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.43%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -2.16%E -0.656%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -2.62%E -0.718%K -0.988%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 12:14
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.43%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -2.16%E -0.656%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -2.62%E -0.718%K -0.988%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 12:14
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.43%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -2.16%E -0.656%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -2.62%E -0.718%K -0.988%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 12:14
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.43%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -2.16%E -0.656%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -2.62%E -0.718%K -0.988%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 12:14
Casumo🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.43%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -2.16%E -0.656%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -2.62%E -0.718%K -0.988%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 12:14
betPARX🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.43%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -2.16%E -0.656%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -2.62%E -0.718%K -0.988%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 12:14
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.56%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%EV -9.58%E -3.14%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-01 12:09
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.73%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -14.02%E -4.84%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.11%EV -10.62%E -3.17%K -4.52%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-01 12:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.00%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.00%EV -16.99%E -6.07%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.00%EV -19.96%E -6.65%K -9.98%G +0.000%19.0%2026-03-01 12:24
LeoVegas🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.44%EV -13.96%E -7.09%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.15%EV -3.65%E -1.12%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -3.95%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-01 12:14
NetBet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.32%EV -14.84%E -7.61%K -15.62%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.10%EV -11.95%E -4.02%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.59%EV -13.29%E -4.09%K -5.91%G +0.000%15.7%2026-03-01 12:08
PMU (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 43.00%EV -14.84%E -7.61%K -15.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.95%EV -16.99%E -6.07%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.05%EV -17.29%E -5.58%K -8.23%G +0.000%19.3%2026-03-01 12:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.34%EV -16.15%E -8.41%K -17.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.24%EV -6.61%E -2.10%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-01 12:14
Virgin Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.34%EV -16.15%E -8.41%K -17.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.24%EV -6.61%E -2.10%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-01 12:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.32%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93%0.4%2026-03-01 12:24
Matchbook2.28I 43.86%NM 43.57%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.7%2026-03-01 12:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.38%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.10%1.1%2026-03-01 12:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.38%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.10%1.1%2026-03-01 12:24
Smarkets2.26I 44.25%NM 43.40%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.87%1.9%2026-03-01 12:09