La escuela de los momios

Hertha Berlin v 1. FC Nürnberg

Inicio: 2026-03-01 12:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Hertha Berlin (Local)

Predicción 43.67%2.29momio equitativo
EV -1.74%
Ventaja -0.771%
Kelly -1.39%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.00%43.85%43.67%46.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.922.082.102.2552.08%48.11%47.62%44.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

1. FC Nürnberg (Visitante)

Predicción 29.65%3.37momio equitativo
EV -0.682%
Ventaja -0.204%
Kelly -0.290%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.06%29.57%29.64%30.20%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.153.153.3535.71%31.77%31.75%29.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.68%3.75momio equitativo
EV -1.29%
Ventaja -0.347%
Kelly -0.476%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.41%26.58%26.69%28.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.483.503.7033.33%28.70%28.57%27.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
LowVig.ag2.25I 44.44%NM 43.11%EV -1.74%E -0.771%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.94%EV -3.94%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.95%EV -3.95%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-01 12:09
BetOnline.ag2.25I 44.44%NM 43.11%EV -1.74%E -0.771%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.94%EV -3.94%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.95%EV -3.95%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-01 12:09
Pinnacle2.22I 45.05%NM 43.61%EV -3.05%E -1.37%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.79%EV -3.65%E -1.12%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.60%EV -2.89%E -0.793%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-01 12:15
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 42.97%EV -3.92%E -1.78%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -6.61%E -2.10%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.01%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-01 12:14
Coolbet2.17I 46.08%NM 44.04%EV -5.23%E -2.41%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.41%EV -3.65%E -1.12%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.55%EV -3.95%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-01 11:33
Codere (IT)2.17I 46.08%NM 43.68%EV -5.23%E -2.41%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.62%EV -5.13%E -1.60%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.70%EV -5.29%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-01 12:09
Marathon Bet2.16I 46.30%NM 43.15%EV -5.67%E -2.62%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.07%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.78%EV -7.15%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-01 12:24
FanDuel2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.10%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.13%E -1.60%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-01 12:24
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.10%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.13%E -1.60%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-01 12:14
Unibet (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.54%EV -6.10%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -6.61%E -2.10%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-01 12:09
Suprabets2.15I 46.51%NM 43.49%EV -6.10%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 29.87%EV -7.20%E -2.30%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 26.64%EV -6.35%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 12:09
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -6.10%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -6.61%E -2.10%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -7.96%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-01 12:09
Everygame2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.10%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-01 12:24
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -6.10%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -6.61%E -2.10%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 11:34
SportsBet2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.10%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-01 12:09
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.10%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-01 11:19
1xBet2.14I 46.73%NM 44.44%EV -6.54%E -3.06%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.39%EV -0.682%E -0.204%K -0.290%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.17%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-01 12:24
Betsson2.12I 47.17%NM 43.51%EV -7.41%E -3.50%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -7.96%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-01 12:09
NordicBet2.12I 47.17%NM 43.51%EV -7.41%E -3.50%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -7.96%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-01 12:09
Tipico (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -2.16%E -0.656%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -3.95%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-01 11:59
BetMGM2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -5.13%E -1.60%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -1.29%E -0.347%K -0.476%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-01 11:19
Bovada2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -5.13%E -1.60%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-01 12:13
Bet Victor2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -3.95%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 12:23
PointsBet (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-01 11:34
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -9.58%E -3.14%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -5.29%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-01 12:09
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.96%E -3.62%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-01 11:24
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.96%E -3.62%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-01 11:29
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.96%E -3.62%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-01 11:24
888sport (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.09%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.96%E -3.62%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-01 11:24
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -11.06%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.96%E -3.62%K -5.20%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-01 12:08
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -11.06%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -13.29%E -4.09%K -5.91%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-01 12:09
Ladbrokes (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.47%E -5.11%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.06%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-01 11:19
Coral2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.47%E -5.11%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.06%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-01 11:19
Ladbrokes (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.47%E -5.11%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.06%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-01 11:19
Neds2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.47%E -5.11%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.06%E -3.69%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-01 11:19
Betclic (FR)2.03I 49.26%NM 43.90%EV -11.34%E -5.59%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 29.51%EV -10.47%E -3.47%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.60%EV -10.62%E -3.17%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-01 12:08
Svenska Spel2.02I 49.50%NM 46.53%EV -11.78%E -5.83%K -11.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.06%EV -0.682%E -0.204%K -0.290%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -1.29%E -0.347%K -0.476%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 12:14
ATG (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.53%EV -11.78%E -5.83%K -11.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.06%EV -0.682%E -0.204%K -0.290%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -1.29%E -0.347%K -0.476%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 12:14
Unibet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.43%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -2.16%E -0.656%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -2.62%E -0.718%K -0.988%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 12:14
TABtouch2.00I 50.00%NM 46.43%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -2.16%E -0.656%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -2.62%E -0.718%K -0.988%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 12:14
Unibet (NL)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.43%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -2.16%E -0.656%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -2.62%E -0.718%K -0.988%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 12:14
LeoVegas (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.43%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -2.16%E -0.656%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -2.62%E -0.718%K -0.988%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 12:14
BetRivers2.00I 50.00%NM 46.43%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -2.16%E -0.656%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -2.62%E -0.718%K -0.988%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 12:14
Grosvenor2.00I 50.00%NM 46.43%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -2.16%E -0.656%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -2.62%E -0.718%K -0.988%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 12:14
Unibet (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.43%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -2.16%E -0.656%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -2.62%E -0.718%K -0.988%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 12:14
Casumo2.00I 50.00%NM 46.43%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -2.16%E -0.656%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -2.62%E -0.718%K -0.988%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 12:14
betPARX2.00I 50.00%NM 46.43%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -2.16%E -0.656%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -2.62%E -0.718%K -0.988%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 12:14
Parions Sport (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 44.56%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%EV -9.58%E -3.14%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-01 12:09
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.73%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -14.02%E -4.84%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.11%EV -10.62%E -3.17%K -4.52%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-01 12:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 42.00%EV -12.65%E -6.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.00%EV -16.99%E -6.07%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.00%EV -19.96%E -6.65%K -9.98%G +0.000%19.0%2026-03-01 12:24
LeoVegas1.97I 50.76%NM 46.44%EV -13.96%E -7.09%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.15%EV -3.65%E -1.12%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -3.95%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-01 12:14
NetBet (FR)1.95I 51.28%NM 44.32%EV -14.84%E -7.61%K -15.62%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.10%EV -11.95%E -4.02%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.59%EV -13.29%E -4.09%K -5.91%G +0.000%15.7%2026-03-01 12:08
PMU (FR)1.95I 51.28%NM 43.00%EV -14.84%E -7.61%K -15.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.95%EV -16.99%E -6.07%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.05%EV -17.29%E -5.58%K -8.23%G +0.000%19.3%2026-03-01 12:24
LiveScore Bet1.92I 52.08%NM 46.34%EV -16.15%E -8.41%K -17.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.24%EV -6.61%E -2.10%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-01 12:14
Virgin Bet1.92I 52.08%NM 46.34%EV -16.15%E -8.41%K -17.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.24%EV -6.61%E -2.10%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-01 12:14
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.32%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93%0.4%2026-03-01 12:24
Matchbook2.28I 43.86%NM 43.57%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.7%2026-03-01 12:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.38%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.10%1.1%2026-03-01 12:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.38%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.10%1.1%2026-03-01 12:24
Smarkets2.26I 44.25%NM 43.40%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.87%1.9%2026-03-01 12:09