Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hertha Berlin v 1. FC Heidenheim

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 11:00 UTC

Final: Hertha Berlin 4–1 1. FC Heidenheim

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hertha Berlin (Local)

Prediction 36.15%2.77fair odd
EV -1.30%
Edge -0.475%
Kelly -0.750%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.82%36.48%36.11%41.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.532.552.7344.44%39.47%39.22%36.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Heidenheim (Visit)

Prediction 37.82%2.64fair odd
EV +13.45%
Edge +4.48%
Kelly +6.72%
Growth +0.904%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.34%37.53%37.80%38.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.322.462.453.0043.10%40.64%40.82%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.03%3.84fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.287%
Kelly -0.389%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.05%25.99%26.09%26.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.523.503.8030.30%28.44%28.57%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hertha Berlin (Local): 36.15%; 1. FC Heidenheim (Visit): 37.82%; Draw: 26.03%. For 1. FC Heidenheim (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.64. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.45%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -18.65%E -8.29%K -14.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV +13.45%E +4.48%K +6.72%G +0.904%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-13 14:34
Pinnacle🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.68%EV -4.55%E -1.72%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.83%EV -3.19%E -1.25%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.49%EV -1.09%E -0.287%K -0.389%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-15 10:44
LowVig.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.63%EV -6.00%E -2.31%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -3.57%E -1.40%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.02%EV -4.73%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 10:34
BetOnline.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.63%EV -6.00%E -2.31%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -3.57%E -1.40%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.02%EV -4.73%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 10:34
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.78%EV -9.61%E -3.85%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.57%E -1.40%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -2.39%E -0.638%K -0.869%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:34
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -9.61%E -3.85%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -3.57%E -1.40%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -3.69%E -0.998%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 10:34
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.00%E -2.31%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 10:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -9.61%E -3.85%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 10:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 10:34
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 10:34
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 10:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 10:34
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 10:34
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 10:34
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 10:34
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 10:34
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 10:34
1xBet🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.82%EV -1.30%E -0.475%K -0.750%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.33%EV -6.22%E -2.51%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.85%EV -7.86%E -2.22%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 10:54
Suprabets🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.48%EV -4.55%E -1.72%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.76%EV -6.22%E -2.51%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 10:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -5.27%E -2.01%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.91%EV -6.97%E -2.83%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.49%EV -8.38%E -2.38%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 10:50
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.86%EV -4.19%E -1.58%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.79%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -2.39%E -0.638%K -0.869%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 10:54
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -4.19%E -1.58%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.52%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:54
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -4.19%E -1.58%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 10:54
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -4.19%E -1.58%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 10:53
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.63%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -3.69%E -0.998%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 10:54
SportsBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -4.19%E -1.58%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 10:54
theScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 10:54
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.61%E -3.85%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-15 10:54
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.29%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-15 10:55
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.29%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-15 10:54
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.61%E -3.85%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 10:50
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.61%E -3.85%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 10:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.61%E -3.85%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 10:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.61%E -3.85%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 10:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.72%EV -13.95%E -5.86%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.64%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-15 10:34
Neds🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.72%EV -13.95%E -5.86%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.64%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-15 10:35
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.81%EV -14.31%E -6.04%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-15 10:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.81%EV -14.31%E -6.04%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-15 10:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.36%EV -10.34%E -4.17%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.11%EV -8.11%E -3.34%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-15 10:34
BetRivers🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.36%EV -10.34%E -4.17%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.11%EV -8.11%E -3.34%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-15 10:34
betano_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.89%EV -6.00%E -2.31%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -3.69%E -0.998%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 10:53
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.89%EV -6.00%E -2.31%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -3.69%E -0.998%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 10:53
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -3.69%E -0.998%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 10:54
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -6.00%E -2.31%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.47%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -7.60%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 10:49
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.21%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.83%EV -7.60%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 10:53
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -9.61%E -3.85%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-15 10:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 35.93%EV -8.53%E -3.37%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.88%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.20%EV -9.68%E -2.79%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 10:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.38%EV -12.14%E -5.00%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.83%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -14.10%E -4.27%K -6.13%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-15 10:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.38%EV -12.14%E -5.00%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.83%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -14.10%E -4.27%K -6.13%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-15 10:34
Virgin Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.38%EV -12.14%E -5.00%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.83%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -14.10%E -4.27%K -6.13%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-15 10:34
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -6.00%E -2.31%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -10.00%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 10:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.97%EV -10.00%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 10:54
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -9.61%E -3.85%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.41%EV -10.00%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -14.10%E -4.27%K -6.13%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-15 10:54
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.42%EV -11.13%E -4.74%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -10.20%E -2.96%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-15 10:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -11.42%E -4.66%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.01%EV -11.13%E -4.74%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.52%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 10:54
NetBet (FR)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 35.69%EV -10.70%E -4.33%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.00%EV -12.27%E -5.29%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.31%EV -12.80%E -3.82%K -5.45%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-15 10:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.54%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.27%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19%0.5%2026-08-15 10:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.54%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.27%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19%0.5%2026-08-15 10:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.54%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.27%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19%0.5%2026-08-15 10:54
Matchbook2.80I 35.71%NM 35.54%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.27%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19%0.5%2026-08-15 10:50
Smarkets2.78I 35.97%NM 35.58%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.04%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.38%1.1%2026-08-15 10:54
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.25%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%2.1%2026-08-15 10:54