Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hertha Berlin v 1. FC Heidenheim

Inicio: 2026-08-15 11:00 UTC

Final: Hertha Berlin 4–1 1. FC Heidenheim

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hertha Berlin (Local)

Predicción 36.15%2.77momio equitativo
EV -1.30%
Ventaja -0.475%
Kelly -0.750%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.73

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.82%36.48%36.11%41.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.252.532.552.7344.44%39.47%39.22%36.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

1. FC Heidenheim (Visitante)

Predicción 37.82%2.64momio equitativo
EV +13.45%
Ventaja +4.48%
Kelly +6.72%
Crecimiento +0.904%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.34%37.53%37.80%38.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.322.462.453.0043.10%40.64%40.82%33.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.03%3.84momio equitativo
EV -1.09%
Ventaja -0.287%
Kelly -0.389%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.05%25.99%26.09%26.98%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.523.503.8030.30%28.44%28.57%26.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Hertha Berlin (Local): 36.15%; 1. FC Heidenheim (Visitante): 37.82%; Empate: 26.03%. Para 1. FC Heidenheim (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.64. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +13.45%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -18.65%E -8.29%K -14.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV +13.45%E +4.48%K +6.72%G +0.904%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-13 14:34
Pinnacle🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.68%EV -4.55%E -1.72%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.83%EV -3.19%E -1.25%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.49%EV -1.09%E -0.287%K -0.389%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-15 10:44
LowVig.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.63%EV -6.00%E -2.31%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -3.57%E -1.40%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.02%EV -4.73%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 10:34
BetOnline.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.63%EV -6.00%E -2.31%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -3.57%E -1.40%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.02%EV -4.73%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 10:34
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.78%EV -9.61%E -3.85%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.57%E -1.40%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -2.39%E -0.638%K -0.869%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:34
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -9.61%E -3.85%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -3.57%E -1.40%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -3.69%E -0.998%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 10:34
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.00%E -2.31%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 10:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -9.61%E -3.85%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 10:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 10:34
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 10:34
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 10:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 10:34
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 10:34
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 10:34
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 10:34
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 10:34
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.46%E -2.18%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 10:34
1xBet🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.82%EV -1.30%E -0.475%K -0.750%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.33%EV -6.22%E -2.51%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.85%EV -7.86%E -2.22%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 10:54
Suprabets🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.48%EV -4.55%E -1.72%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.76%EV -6.22%E -2.51%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 10:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -5.27%E -2.01%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.91%EV -6.97%E -2.83%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.49%EV -8.38%E -2.38%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 10:50
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.86%EV -4.19%E -1.58%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.79%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -2.39%E -0.638%K -0.869%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 10:54
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -4.19%E -1.58%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.52%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:54
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -4.19%E -1.58%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 10:54
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -4.19%E -1.58%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 10:53
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.63%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -3.69%E -0.998%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 10:54
SportsBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -4.19%E -1.58%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 10:54
theScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 10:54
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.61%E -3.85%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-15 10:54
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.29%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-15 10:55
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.29%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-15 10:54
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.61%E -3.85%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 10:50
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.61%E -3.85%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 10:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.61%E -3.85%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 10:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.61%E -3.85%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 10:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.72%EV -13.95%E -5.86%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.64%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-15 10:34
Neds🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.72%EV -13.95%E -5.86%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.64%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-15 10:35
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.81%EV -14.31%E -6.04%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-15 10:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.81%EV -14.31%E -6.04%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -7.35%E -3.00%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-15 10:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.36%EV -10.34%E -4.17%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.11%EV -8.11%E -3.34%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-15 10:34
BetRivers🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.36%EV -10.34%E -4.17%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.11%EV -8.11%E -3.34%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-15 10:34
betano_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.89%EV -6.00%E -2.31%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -3.69%E -0.998%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 10:53
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.89%EV -6.00%E -2.31%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -3.69%E -0.998%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 10:53
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -3.69%E -0.998%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 10:54
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -6.00%E -2.31%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.47%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -7.60%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 10:49
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.21%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.83%EV -7.60%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 10:53
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -9.61%E -3.85%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-15 10:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 35.93%EV -8.53%E -3.37%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.88%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.20%EV -9.68%E -2.79%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 10:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.38%EV -12.14%E -5.00%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.83%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -14.10%E -4.27%K -6.13%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-15 10:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.38%EV -12.14%E -5.00%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.83%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -14.10%E -4.27%K -6.13%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-15 10:34
Virgin Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.38%EV -12.14%E -5.00%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.83%EV -9.24%E -3.85%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -14.10%E -4.27%K -6.13%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-15 10:34
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -6.00%E -2.31%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -10.00%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 10:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.97%EV -10.00%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 10:54
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -9.61%E -3.85%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.41%EV -10.00%E -4.20%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -14.10%E -4.27%K -6.13%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-15 10:54
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -7.81%E -3.06%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.42%EV -11.13%E -4.74%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -10.20%E -2.96%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-15 10:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -11.42%E -4.66%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.01%EV -11.13%E -4.74%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.52%EV -8.90%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 10:54
NetBet (FR)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 35.69%EV -10.70%E -4.33%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.00%EV -12.27%E -5.29%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.31%EV -12.80%E -3.82%K -5.45%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-15 10:54
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.54%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.27%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19%0.5%2026-08-15 10:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.54%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.27%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19%0.5%2026-08-15 10:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.54%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.27%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19%0.5%2026-08-15 10:54
Matchbook◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.54%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.27%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19%0.5%2026-08-15 10:50
Smarkets◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.58%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.04%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.38%1.1%2026-08-15 10:54
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.25%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%2.1%2026-08-15 10:54