The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Greuther Fürth v Holstein Kiel

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 12:30 UTC

Final: Greuther Fürth 1–0 Holstein Kiel

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Greuther Fürth (Local)

Prediction 37.27%2.68fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -0.611%
Kelly -0.983%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.08%37.27%37.18%39.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.482.502.6446.51%40.30%40.00%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Holstein Kiel (Visit)

Prediction 36.86%2.71fair odd
EV -2.33%
Edge -0.881%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.78%36.86%36.94%38.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.482.502.6543.48%40.27%40.00%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.88%3.86fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -0.790%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.62%25.87%25.87%26.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.543.603.7530.30%28.25%27.78%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Greuther Fürth (Local): 37.27%; Holstein Kiel (Visit): 36.86%; Draw: 25.88%. For Greuther Fürth (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.68. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.64, with an expected value of -1.61%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.72%EV -1.61%E -0.611%K -0.983%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.58%EV -2.33%E -0.881%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.70%EV -6.07%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.2%2026-11-01 12:20
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -3.10%E -1.19%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -7.86%E -3.14%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 12:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -3.10%E -1.19%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -7.86%E -3.14%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 12:00
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -3.10%E -1.19%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -7.86%E -3.14%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 12:00
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -3.10%E -1.19%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -7.86%E -3.14%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 12:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -3.10%E -1.19%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -7.86%E -3.14%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 12:00
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -3.10%E -1.19%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -7.86%E -3.14%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 12:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -3.10%E -1.19%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -7.86%E -3.14%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 12:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -3.10%E -1.19%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -7.86%E -3.14%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 12:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.06%EV -4.22%E -1.64%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.06%EV -5.28%E -2.06%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.88%EV -4.77%E -1.30%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-01 10:49
LowVig.ag🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.06%EV -4.22%E -1.64%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.06%EV -5.28%E -2.06%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.88%EV -4.77%E -1.30%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-01 10:49
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.97%E -1.95%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.47%EV -4.18%E -1.61%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-01 12:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.06%EV -4.97%E -1.95%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.06%EV -6.02%E -2.36%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -5.55%E -1.52%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-30 00:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -4.18%E -1.61%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 11:00
FanDuel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -4.18%E -1.61%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 12:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -6.02%E -2.36%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -4.26%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-29 09:37
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -6.02%E -2.36%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -4.26%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 12:20
Coolbet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.86%E -3.14%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -2.96%E -0.790%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-01 09:15
picklebet_au🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -7.86%E -3.14%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -4.26%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 09:34
1xBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.22%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.49%EV -6.02%E -2.36%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.29%EV -8.40%E -2.37%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 12:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.22%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.49%EV -6.02%E -2.36%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.29%EV -8.40%E -2.37%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 12:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.86%E -3.14%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-01 09:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.86%E -3.14%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-01 09:15
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.86%E -3.14%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-01 04:15
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -6.02%E -2.36%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -9.43%E -2.69%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-01 12:00
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.98%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.98%EV -7.86%E -3.14%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -8.14%E -2.29%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-01 11:45
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -11.55%E -4.81%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-27 12:22
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.15%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -11.55%E -4.81%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.20%EV -10.73%E -3.11%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-01 12:00
BetRivers🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.33%EV -7.57%E -3.05%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -11.55%E -4.81%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -10.73%E -3.11%K -4.38%G +0.000%11.0%2026-11-01 12:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.33%EV -7.57%E -3.05%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -11.55%E -4.81%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -10.73%E -3.11%K -4.38%G +0.000%11.0%2026-11-01 12:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.08%EV -7.57%E -3.05%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.60%EV -12.28%E -5.16%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -12.02%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-01 12:00
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -6.02%E -2.36%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-01 12:19
betano_uk🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -6.02%E -2.36%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-01 12:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.69%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.69%EV -9.70%E -3.96%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -2.96%E -0.790%K -1.08%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-01 11:40
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.59%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -7.86%E -3.14%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-01 12:20
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -7.86%E -3.14%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -9.43%E -2.69%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-01 12:20
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -9.70%E -3.96%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-30 12:45
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -9.70%E -3.96%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -9.43%E -2.69%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-29 09:40
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -9.70%E -3.96%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -9.43%E -2.69%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-29 09:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.73%EV -13.39%E -5.70%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.08%EV -12.02%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%12.8%2026-11-01 12:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -8.69%E -3.55%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.73%EV -13.39%E -5.70%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.08%EV -12.02%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%12.8%2026-11-01 12:00
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -7.86%E -3.14%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -12.02%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-01 11:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -7.86%E -3.14%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -12.02%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-01 12:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -9.70%E -3.96%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -12.02%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-01 12:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -9.70%E -3.96%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -12.02%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-01 12:20
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -9.70%E -3.96%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -12.02%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-01 12:20
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -9.70%E -3.96%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -12.02%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-01 12:20
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -9.70%E -3.96%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -14.61%E -4.43%K -6.35%G +0.000%12.8%2026-11-01 12:00
NetBet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.02%EV -12.42%E -5.28%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.02%EV -13.39%E -5.70%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.97%EV -13.31%E -3.97%K -5.67%G +0.000%15.0%2026-11-01 12:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.81%EV -13.54%E -5.84%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.55%EV -11.55%E -4.81%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 25.65%EV -11.50%E -3.36%K -4.75%G +0.000%14.0%2026-11-01 12:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.50%EV -14.28%E -6.21%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.50%EV -15.23%E -6.62%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.00%EV -10.73%E -3.11%K -4.38%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-30 22:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.11%EV -19.87%E -9.24%K -17.28%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 35.78%EV -13.39%E -5.70%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.10%EV -13.31%E -3.97%K -5.67%G +0.000%18.9%2026-11-01 11:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.44%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.35%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%0.4%2026-11-01 11:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.44%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.35%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%0.4%2026-11-01 11:45
Matchbook◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.14%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.54%0.5%2026-11-01 12:20
Smarkets◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.31%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.22%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47%0.8%2026-11-01 12:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.31%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.22%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47%0.8%2026-11-01 12:20
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 37.25%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%2.1%2026-11-01 12:00

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