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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Greuther Fürth v Holstein Kiel

2026-11-01 12:30 UTC — Bundesliga 2 - Germany

Resultado del partido

43 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Greuther Fürth (Local)

Predicción 40.65%2.46momio equitativo
EV +3.67%
Ventaja +1.44%
Kelly +2.37%
Crecimiento +0.087%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.47%40.33%40.67%42.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.342.302.5550.00%42.82%43.48%39.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Holstein Kiel (Visitante)

Predicción 34.37%2.91momio equitativo
EV -3.77%
Ventaja -1.35%
Kelly -2.09%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.29%34.71%34.36%38.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.322.572.602.8043.10%38.92%38.46%35.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.98%4.00momio equitativo
EV -0.087%
Ventaja -0.022%
Kelly -0.029%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.74%24.96%24.96%26.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.403.643.704.0029.41%27.47%27.03%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Greuther Fürth (Local): 40.65%; Holstein Kiel (Visitante): 34.37%; Empate: 24.98%. Para Greuther Fürth (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.46. 9 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.55, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +3.67%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (43 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.75%EV +3.67%E +1.44%K +2.37%G +0.087%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.25%EV -15.80%E -6.45%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -6.33%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 12:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.75%EV +3.67%E +1.44%K +2.37%G +0.087%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.25%EV -15.80%E -6.45%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -6.33%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 12:35
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.75%EV +3.67%E +1.44%K +2.37%G +0.087%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.25%EV -15.80%E -6.45%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -6.33%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 12:35
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.75%EV +3.67%E +1.44%K +2.37%G +0.087%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.25%EV -15.80%E -6.45%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -6.33%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 12:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.75%EV +3.67%E +1.44%K +2.37%G +0.087%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.25%EV -15.80%E -6.45%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -6.33%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 12:35
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.75%EV +3.67%E +1.44%K +2.37%G +0.087%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.25%EV -15.80%E -6.45%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -6.33%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 12:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.75%EV +3.67%E +1.44%K +2.37%G +0.087%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.25%EV -15.80%E -6.45%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -6.33%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 12:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.75%EV +3.67%E +1.44%K +2.37%G +0.087%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.25%EV -15.80%E -6.45%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -6.33%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 12:35
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.62%EV +0.821%E +0.331%K +0.554%G +0.005%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.16%EV -18.20%E -7.65%K -13.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-25 12:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -0.399%E -0.163%K -0.275%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.15%EV -19.23%E -8.18%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.25%EV -11.33%E -3.19%K -4.44%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-25 12:35
BetRivers🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -0.399%E -0.163%K -0.275%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.15%EV -19.23%E -8.18%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.25%EV -11.33%E -3.19%K -4.44%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-25 12:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -0.399%E -0.163%K -0.275%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.15%EV -19.23%E -8.18%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.25%EV -11.33%E -3.19%K -4.44%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-25 12:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.47%EV -1.21%E -0.499%K -0.848%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.20%EV -20.27%E -8.74%K -15.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.32%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-25 12:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.47%EV -1.21%E -0.499%K -0.848%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.20%EV -20.27%E -8.74%K -15.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.32%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-25 12:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -2.43%E -1.01%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.03%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-25 12:35
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.42%EV -4.46%E -1.90%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.92%E -3.37%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -0.087%E -0.022%K -0.029%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 13:15
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.17%EV -4.46%E -1.90%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.32%EV -5.49%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-25 13:50
Pinnacle🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.26%EV -6.09%E -2.64%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.04%EV -3.77%E -1.35%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.69%EV -3.58%E -0.928%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-25 14:00
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96%EV -6.50%E -2.82%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -5.49%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.08%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-25 13:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -6.50%E -2.82%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.53%EV -10.64%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -5.08%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-25 13:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -6.50%E -2.82%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.53%EV -10.64%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -5.08%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-25 13:15
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -6.50%E -2.82%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.32%EV -14.08%E -5.63%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -6.33%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-25 13:10
1xBet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.80%EV -6.90%E -3.01%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.35%EV -6.52%E -2.40%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.85%EV -6.08%E -1.62%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 13:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.96%EV -7.72%E -3.40%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.31%EV -6.86%E -2.53%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.73%EV -6.08%E -1.62%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 13:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.75%EV -7.72%E -3.40%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-25 15:57
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 13:10
picklebet_au🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 13:10
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 15:25
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.42%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.32%EV -8.92%E -3.37%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-25 13:45
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.42%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.32%EV -8.92%E -3.37%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-25 13:10
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.42%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.32%EV -8.92%E -3.37%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-25 13:10
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-25 13:45
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-25 13:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-25 13:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-25 13:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -10.64%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -15.07%E -4.43%K -6.28%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-25 13:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -10.64%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -15.07%E -4.43%K -6.28%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-25 13:45
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -10.64%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -15.07%E -4.43%K -6.28%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-25 13:45
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -8.53%E -3.79%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -10.64%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -15.07%E -4.43%K -6.28%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-25 13:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.70%EV -12.60%E -5.86%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.00%EV -14.08%E -5.63%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.30%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-25 13:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 41.17%EV -13.41%E -6.29%K -11.87%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 33.99%EV -11.33%E -4.39%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 24.84%EV -11.83%E -3.35%K -4.67%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-25 13:09
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.84%EV -14.63%E -6.97%K -13.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.00%EV -15.80%E -6.45%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.16%EV -11.33%E -3.19%K -4.44%G +0.000%16.6%2026-10-25 13:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.45%EV -18.69%E -9.35%K -18.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.29%EV -12.36%E -4.85%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.26%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%17.8%2026-10-25 13:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (1)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎2.12I 47.17%NM 40.46%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.31%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.23%16.6%2026-10-25 13:10
Arbitraje (8 combinaciones) +0.07%Unibet 2.55 (39.2%) / Pinnacle 2.80 (35.7%) / Coolbet 4.00 (25.0%)Ver las 8 combinaciones
Greuther Fürth (Local)Holstein Kiel (Visitante)EmpateMargen
Unibet🎯 2.55 (39.2%)Pinnacle🎯 2.80 (35.7%)Coolbet🎯 4.00 (25.0%)+0.070%
Unibet (SE)🎯 2.55 (39.2%)Pinnacle🎯 2.80 (35.7%)Coolbet🎯 4.00 (25.0%)+0.070%
Casumo🎯 2.55 (39.2%)Pinnacle🎯 2.80 (35.7%)Coolbet🎯 4.00 (25.0%)+0.070%
Grosvenor🎯 2.55 (39.2%)Pinnacle🎯 2.80 (35.7%)Coolbet🎯 4.00 (25.0%)+0.070%
Unibet (NL)🎯 2.55 (39.2%)Pinnacle🎯 2.80 (35.7%)Coolbet🎯 4.00 (25.0%)+0.070%
betPARX🎯 2.55 (39.2%)Pinnacle🎯 2.80 (35.7%)Coolbet🎯 4.00 (25.0%)+0.070%
ATG (SE)🎯 2.55 (39.2%)Pinnacle🎯 2.80 (35.7%)Coolbet🎯 4.00 (25.0%)+0.070%
Svenska Spel🎯 2.55 (39.2%)Pinnacle🎯 2.80 (35.7%)Coolbet🎯 4.00 (25.0%)+0.070%