Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Greuther Fürth v 1. FC Nürnberg

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 11:00 UTC

Final: Greuther Fürth 2–4 1. FC Nürnberg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Greuther Fürth (Local)

Prediction 31.06%3.22fair odd
EV -2.18%
Edge -0.691%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.20%31.15%31.04%32.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.932.903.1536.36%34.09%34.48%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Nürnberg (Visit)

Prediction 42.57%2.35fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -2.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.94%42.52%42.64%43.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.192.202.2848.31%45.68%45.45%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.37%3.79fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.293%
Kelly -0.400%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.39%26.33%26.33%26.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.483.503.7530.30%28.71%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Greuther Fürth (Local): 31.06%; 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit): 42.57%; Draw: 26.37%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.79. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.75, with an expected value of -1.10%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.69%EV -2.18%E -0.691%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.54%EV -5.49%E -2.47%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.78%EV -1.10%E -0.293%K -0.400%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-15 10:44
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -3.73%E -1.20%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -5.06%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 09:33
Fanatics🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -3.73%E -1.20%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -5.06%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 04:10
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -3.73%E -1.20%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 10:50
LowVig.ag🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 31.10%EV -4.97%E -1.62%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.68%EV -5.07%E -2.27%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.22%EV -4.26%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 05:59
BetOnline.ag🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 31.10%EV -4.97%E -1.62%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.68%EV -5.07%E -2.27%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.22%EV -4.26%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 06:00
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.28%E -1.73%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.67%EV -2.42%E -0.654%K -0.896%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:49
Codere (IT)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -5.28%E -1.73%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.33%EV -5.49%E -2.47%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 10:09
Marathon Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -5.28%E -1.73%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.78%EV -7.19%E -3.30%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 10:54
1xBet🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 31.34%EV -5.90%E -1.95%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.83%EV -3.36%E -1.48%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.83%EV -6.64%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:54
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -6.83%E -2.28%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -4.21%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -5.06%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-12 18:19
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.83%E -2.28%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.06%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 10:29
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -6.83%E -2.28%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -8.47%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.06%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 10:05
theScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -6.83%E -2.28%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.18%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.89%EV -9.01%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 10:04
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -6.83%E -2.28%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.56%EV -7.19%E -3.30%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 10:29
NordicBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -6.83%E -2.28%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.47%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 10:03
Betsson🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -6.83%E -2.28%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.47%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 10:05
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -6.83%E -2.28%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-15 10:34
Suprabets🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.39%EV -7.46%E -2.50%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.33%EV -5.92%E -2.68%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.28%EV -6.11%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 10:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 30.52%EV -7.46%E -2.50%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.89%EV -9.75%E -4.60%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.59%EV -9.80%E -2.87%K -4.05%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 10:37
Coolbet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -8.39%E -2.84%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -4.21%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -1.10%E -0.293%K -0.400%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 09:39
Bovada🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -8.39%E -2.84%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.52%EV -8.47%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -9.01%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-15 10:46
Casumo🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -9.94%E -3.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -2.94%E -1.29%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-13 18:20
Grosvenor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -9.94%E -3.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -2.94%E -1.29%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-13 18:19
Unibet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -9.94%E -3.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -2.94%E -1.29%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-13 18:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -9.94%E -3.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -2.94%E -1.29%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-13 18:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -9.94%E -3.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -2.94%E -1.29%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-13 18:19
ATG (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -9.94%E -3.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -2.94%E -1.29%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-13 18:19
betPARX🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -9.94%E -3.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -2.94%E -1.29%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-13 18:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -9.94%E -3.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -2.94%E -1.29%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-13 18:19
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -9.94%E -3.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.06%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-12 18:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -9.94%E -3.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.06%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-12 18:10
betano_uk🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -9.94%E -3.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.06%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 10:53
Bet Victor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -9.94%E -3.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.06%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 10:53
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.90%EV -9.94%E -3.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.05%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -6.37%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-15 10:44
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.94%E -3.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 10:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.94%E -3.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 10:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.94%E -3.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 10:45
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.94%E -3.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 10:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -9.94%E -3.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 09:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -9.94%E -3.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 09:35
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -9.94%E -3.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 09:35
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -9.94%E -3.43%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 09:34
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -10.56%E -3.67%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-12 18:09
LeoVegas🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -10.56%E -3.67%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -8.47%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-15 10:54
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -10.56%E -3.67%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-15 10:28
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -10.56%E -3.67%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-15 10:45
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -10.56%E -3.67%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.27%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-15 10:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.41%EV -11.49%E -4.03%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.63%EV -10.60%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -9.01%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-15 10:04
NetBet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.98%EV -11.49%E -4.03%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.66%EV -11.88%E -5.74%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.36%EV -11.65%E -3.48%K -4.96%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-15 10:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -13.05%E -4.66%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.94%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.89%EV -11.65%E -3.48%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-13 18:20
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -13.05%E -4.66%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.94%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.89%EV -11.65%E -3.48%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-13 18:19
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -13.05%E -4.66%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.94%EV -6.34%E -2.88%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.89%EV -11.65%E -3.48%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-13 18:19
PMU (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -14.60%E -5.31%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 40.98%EV -8.05%E -3.72%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-13 18:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -14.60%E -5.31%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 40.98%EV -8.05%E -3.72%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-13 18:19
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -14.60%E -5.31%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 40.98%EV -8.05%E -3.72%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-13 18:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.05%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.46%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.49%0.7%2026-08-15 10:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.82%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.14%0.7%2026-08-15 10:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.82%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.14%0.7%2026-08-15 10:54
Matchbook3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.82%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.14%0.7%2026-08-15 10:54
Kalshi3.23I 30.96%NM 30.66%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.62%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.72%1.0%2026-08-15 10:54
Smarkets3.20I 31.25%NM 30.70%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.09%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.20%1.8%2026-08-15 10:54