L’École des cotes

Fortuna Düsseldorf v Holstein Kiel

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-10 16:32 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

55 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local)

Prévision 45.73%2.19cote équitable
EV -3.96%
Avantage -1.89%
Kelly -3.60%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
44.35%45.72%45.71%47.04%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.872.012.022.1053.48%49.79%49.50%47.62%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Holstein Kiel (Visiteur)

Prévision 28.36%3.53cote équitable
EV +1.82%
Avantage +0.508%
Kelly +0.704%
Croissance +0.013%

avec la cote maximale 3.59

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.92%28.36%28.38%29.89%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.953.213.203.5933.90%31.13%31.25%27.86%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.91%3.86cote équitable
EV -2.85%
Avantage -0.761%
Kelly -1.04%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.57%25.93%25.92%27.60%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.483.473.7532.26%28.77%28.82%26.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (55 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle2.09I 47.85%NM 46.27%EV -4.42%E -2.12%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.94%EV +1.82%E +0.508%K +0.704%G +0.013%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.79%EV -6.48%E -1.80%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-10 16:29
1xBet2.02I 49.50%NM 47.04%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.92%EV +0.122%E +0.034%K +0.048%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.04%EV -5.44%E -1.49%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-10 16:29
Suprabets2.03I 49.26%NM 46.04%EV -7.17%E -3.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.41%EV -3.28%E -0.962%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.55%EV -8.81%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-10 16:30
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -3.57%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -4.15%E -1.12%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-10 16:29
Marathon Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.19%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -3.57%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.36%EV -8.29%E -2.34%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 16:29
SportsBet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -3.57%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.74%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 16:29
Codere (IT)2.06I 48.54%NM 45.89%EV -5.79%E -2.81%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%EV -4.98%E -1.49%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%EV -5.44%E -1.49%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-10 16:30
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 45.67%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.95%EV -4.98%E -1.49%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.38%EV -8.04%E -2.26%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-10 16:30
LowVig.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 45.33%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -4.98%E -1.49%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -13.22%E -3.95%K -5.62%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-10 16:29
BetOnline.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 45.33%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -4.98%E -1.49%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -13.22%E -3.95%K -5.62%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-10 16:29
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 45.97%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -6.40%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -4.15%E -1.12%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-10 16:29
Fanatics2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.40%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.74%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-10 16:30
Unibet (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.40%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.74%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-10 16:27
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.40%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-10 16:30
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -6.40%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -14.51%E -4.40%K -6.31%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-10 16:30
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -6.40%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -14.51%E -4.40%K -6.31%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-10 16:30
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -6.40%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -14.51%E -4.40%K -6.31%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-10 16:30
Everygame2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -3.96%E -1.89%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -7.82%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -6.74%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-10 16:29
Unibet2.06I 48.54%NM 45.16%EV -5.79%E -2.81%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.82%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -8.04%E -2.26%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-10 16:29
Betr (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -7.82%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -4.15%E -1.12%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-10 16:29
PointsBet (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -7.82%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -4.15%E -1.12%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-10 16:29
PlayUp2.08I 48.08%NM 44.41%EV -4.88%E -2.35%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.42%EV -7.82%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-10 16:29
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -7.82%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -9.33%E -2.67%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-10 16:30
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -12.65%E -6.62%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -7.82%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -9.33%E -2.67%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-10 16:30
Sky Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -12.65%E -6.62%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -7.82%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -9.33%E -2.67%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-10 16:30
Tipico (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -3.96%E -1.89%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -9.24%E -2.89%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.74%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-10 16:30
theScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -9.24%E -2.89%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.74%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-10 16:30
BetRivers2.05I 48.78%NM 45.08%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.88%EV -9.24%E -2.89%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -8.04%E -2.26%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-10 16:26
Unibet (FR)1.93I 51.81%NM 46.41%EV -11.74%E -6.08%K -12.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.99%EV -9.24%E -2.89%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.59%EV -9.33%E -2.67%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-10 16:29
Betclic (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 46.06%EV -11.28%E -5.82%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 28.19%EV -10.09%E -3.18%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.75%EV -10.11%E -2.91%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-10 16:29
Casumo2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -10.66%E -3.38%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 16:30
Unibet (NL)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -10.66%E -3.38%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 16:30
Unibet (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -10.66%E -3.38%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 16:30
Svenska Spel2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -10.66%E -3.38%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 16:30
ATG (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -10.66%E -3.38%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 16:30
betPARX2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -10.66%E -3.38%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 16:30
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.32%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -10.66%E -3.38%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -9.33%E -2.67%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 16:30
NetBet (FR)1.87I 53.48%NM 46.65%EV -14.48%E -7.74%K -16.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.69%EV -10.66%E -3.38%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.66%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-10 16:29
Coolbet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.08%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.35%EV -10.94%E -3.48%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -2.85%E -0.761%K -1.04%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-10 16:30
Bet Victor2.05I 48.78%NM 44.91%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.51%EV -11.51%E -3.69%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -6.74%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-10 16:30
TABtouch2.02I 49.50%NM 44.53%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -12.07%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-10 16:30
LiveScore Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 44.35%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -12.07%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -13.22%E -3.95%K -5.62%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-10 16:30
Virgin Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 44.35%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -12.07%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -13.22%E -3.95%K -5.62%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-10 16:30
Grosvenor2.02I 49.50%NM 44.35%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -12.07%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -13.22%E -3.95%K -5.62%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-10 16:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -10.82%E -5.55%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -12.07%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-10 16:29
Coral1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -10.82%E -5.55%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -12.07%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-10 16:30
Neds1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -10.82%E -5.55%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -12.07%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-10 16:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 44.80%EV -12.65%E -6.62%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -12.07%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -19.69%E -6.35%K -9.38%G +0.000%16.9%2026-04-10 16:29
NordicBet2.02I 49.50%NM 45.13%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -13.49%E -4.42%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -5.44%E -1.49%K -2.05%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-10 16:30
Betsson2.02I 49.50%NM 45.13%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -13.49%E -4.42%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -5.44%E -1.49%K -2.05%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-10 16:30
LeoVegas2.00I 50.00%NM 44.39%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.11%EV -13.49%E -4.42%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.50%EV -13.22%E -3.95%K -5.62%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-10 16:30
Winamax (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 45.32%EV -11.28%E -5.82%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.82%EV -13.49%E -4.42%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.86%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-10 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 44.59%EV -9.91%E -5.03%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.80%EV -13.49%E -4.42%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -14.51%E -4.40%K -6.31%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-10 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 44.62%EV -10.82%E -5.55%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.01%EV -14.91%E -4.97%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.37%EV -14.51%E -4.40%K -6.31%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-10 16:30
PMU (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 44.43%EV -12.20%E -6.35%K -13.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.92%EV -16.33%E -5.54%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.66%EV -17.10%E -5.34%K -7.77%G +0.000%17.2%2026-04-10 16:30
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.12I 47.17%NM 47.07%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.34%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.59%0.2%2026-04-10 16:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.12I 47.17%NM 47.07%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.34%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.59%0.2%2026-04-10 16:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.71%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%1.0%2026-04-10 16:30
Matchbook2.12I 47.17%NM 46.56%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.80%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.64%1.3%2026-04-10 16:30
Smarkets2.08I 48.08%NM 46.69%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.75%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.56%3.0%2026-04-10 16:30
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 47.14%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.88%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.98%4.0%2026-04-10 16:30