La escuela de los momios

Fortuna Düsseldorf v Holstein Kiel

Inicio: 2026-04-10 16:32 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local)

Predicción 45.73%2.19momio equitativo
EV -3.96%
Ventaja -1.89%
Kelly -3.60%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.35%45.72%45.71%47.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.872.012.022.1053.48%49.79%49.50%47.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Holstein Kiel (Visitante)

Predicción 28.36%3.53momio equitativo
EV +1.82%
Ventaja +0.508%
Kelly +0.704%
Crecimiento +0.013%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.59

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.92%28.36%28.38%29.89%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.953.213.203.5933.90%31.13%31.25%27.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.91%3.86momio equitativo
EV -2.85%
Ventaja -0.761%
Kelly -1.04%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.57%25.93%25.92%27.60%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.483.473.7532.26%28.77%28.82%26.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.09I 47.85%NM 46.27%EV -4.42%E -2.12%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.94%EV +1.82%E +0.508%K +0.704%G +0.013%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.79%EV -6.48%E -1.80%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-10 16:29
1xBet2.02I 49.50%NM 47.04%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.92%EV +0.122%E +0.034%K +0.048%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.04%EV -5.44%E -1.49%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-10 16:29
Suprabets2.03I 49.26%NM 46.04%EV -7.17%E -3.53%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.41%EV -3.28%E -0.962%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.55%EV -8.81%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-10 16:30
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -3.57%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -4.15%E -1.12%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-10 16:29
Marathon Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.19%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -3.57%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.36%EV -8.29%E -2.34%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 16:29
SportsBet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -3.57%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.74%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 16:29
Codere (IT)2.06I 48.54%NM 45.89%EV -5.79%E -2.81%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%EV -4.98%E -1.49%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%EV -5.44%E -1.49%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-10 16:30
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 45.67%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.95%EV -4.98%E -1.49%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.38%EV -8.04%E -2.26%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-10 16:30
LowVig.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 45.33%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -4.98%E -1.49%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -13.22%E -3.95%K -5.62%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-10 16:29
BetOnline.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 45.33%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -4.98%E -1.49%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -13.22%E -3.95%K -5.62%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-10 16:29
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 45.97%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -6.40%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -4.15%E -1.12%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-10 16:29
Fanatics2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.40%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.74%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-10 16:30
Unibet (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.40%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.74%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-10 16:27
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.40%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-10 16:30
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -6.40%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -14.51%E -4.40%K -6.31%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-10 16:30
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -6.40%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -14.51%E -4.40%K -6.31%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-10 16:30
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -6.40%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -14.51%E -4.40%K -6.31%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-10 16:30
Everygame2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -3.96%E -1.89%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -7.82%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -6.74%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-10 16:29
Unibet2.06I 48.54%NM 45.16%EV -5.79%E -2.81%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.82%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -8.04%E -2.26%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-10 16:29
Betr (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -7.82%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -4.15%E -1.12%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-10 16:29
PointsBet (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -7.82%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -4.15%E -1.12%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-10 16:29
PlayUp2.08I 48.08%NM 44.41%EV -4.88%E -2.35%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.42%EV -7.82%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-10 16:29
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -7.82%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -9.33%E -2.67%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-10 16:30
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -12.65%E -6.62%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -7.82%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -9.33%E -2.67%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-10 16:30
Sky Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -12.65%E -6.62%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -7.82%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -9.33%E -2.67%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-10 16:30
Tipico (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -3.96%E -1.89%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -9.24%E -2.89%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.74%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-10 16:30
theScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -9.24%E -2.89%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.74%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-10 16:30
BetRivers2.05I 48.78%NM 45.08%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.88%EV -9.24%E -2.89%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -8.04%E -2.26%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-10 16:26
Unibet (FR)1.93I 51.81%NM 46.41%EV -11.74%E -6.08%K -12.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.99%EV -9.24%E -2.89%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.59%EV -9.33%E -2.67%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-10 16:29
Betclic (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 46.06%EV -11.28%E -5.82%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 28.19%EV -10.09%E -3.18%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.75%EV -10.11%E -2.91%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-10 16:29
Casumo2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -10.66%E -3.38%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 16:30
Unibet (NL)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -10.66%E -3.38%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 16:30
Unibet (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -10.66%E -3.38%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 16:30
Svenska Spel2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -10.66%E -3.38%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 16:30
ATG (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -10.66%E -3.38%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 16:30
betPARX2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -10.66%E -3.38%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 16:30
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.32%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -10.66%E -3.38%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -9.33%E -2.67%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 16:30
NetBet (FR)1.87I 53.48%NM 46.65%EV -14.48%E -7.74%K -16.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.69%EV -10.66%E -3.38%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.66%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-10 16:29
Coolbet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.08%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.35%EV -10.94%E -3.48%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -2.85%E -0.761%K -1.04%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-10 16:30
Bet Victor2.05I 48.78%NM 44.91%EV -6.25%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.51%EV -11.51%E -3.69%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -6.74%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-10 16:30
TABtouch2.02I 49.50%NM 44.53%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -12.07%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-10 16:30
LiveScore Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 44.35%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -12.07%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -13.22%E -3.95%K -5.62%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-10 16:30
Virgin Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 44.35%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -12.07%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -13.22%E -3.95%K -5.62%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-10 16:30
Grosvenor2.02I 49.50%NM 44.35%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -12.07%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -13.22%E -3.95%K -5.62%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-10 16:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -10.82%E -5.55%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -12.07%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-10 16:29
Coral1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -10.82%E -5.55%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -12.07%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-10 16:30
Neds1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -10.82%E -5.55%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -12.07%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-10 16:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 44.80%EV -12.65%E -6.62%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -12.07%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -19.69%E -6.35%K -9.38%G +0.000%16.9%2026-04-10 16:29
NordicBet2.02I 49.50%NM 45.13%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -13.49%E -4.42%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -5.44%E -1.49%K -2.05%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-10 16:30
Betsson2.02I 49.50%NM 45.13%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -13.49%E -4.42%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -5.44%E -1.49%K -2.05%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-10 16:30
LeoVegas2.00I 50.00%NM 44.39%EV -8.54%E -4.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.11%EV -13.49%E -4.42%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.50%EV -13.22%E -3.95%K -5.62%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-10 16:30
Winamax (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 45.32%EV -11.28%E -5.82%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.82%EV -13.49%E -4.42%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.86%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-10 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 44.59%EV -9.91%E -5.03%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.80%EV -13.49%E -4.42%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -14.51%E -4.40%K -6.31%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-10 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 44.62%EV -10.82%E -5.55%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.01%EV -14.91%E -4.97%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.37%EV -14.51%E -4.40%K -6.31%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-10 16:30
PMU (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 44.43%EV -12.20%E -6.35%K -13.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.92%EV -16.33%E -5.54%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.66%EV -17.10%E -5.34%K -7.77%G +0.000%17.2%2026-04-10 16:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.12I 47.17%NM 47.07%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.34%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.59%0.2%2026-04-10 16:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.12I 47.17%NM 47.07%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.34%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.59%0.2%2026-04-10 16:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.71%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%1.0%2026-04-10 16:30
Matchbook2.12I 47.17%NM 46.56%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.80%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.64%1.3%2026-04-10 16:30
Smarkets2.08I 48.08%NM 46.69%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.75%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.56%3.0%2026-04-10 16:30
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 47.14%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.88%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.98%4.0%2026-04-10 16:30