L’École des cotes

Fortuna Düsseldorf v Elversberg

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-10 11:30 UTC

Score final : Fortuna Düsseldorf 3–1 Elversberg

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local)

Prévision 29.31%3.41cote équitable
EV -0.644%
Avantage -0.190%
Kelly -0.269%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.39

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.77%29.32%29.39%30.74%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.883.163.203.3934.72%31.61%31.25%29.50%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Elversberg (Visiteur)

Prévision 46.01%2.17cote équitable
EV -3.37%
Avantage -1.60%
Kelly -3.06%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
44.23%46.07%45.88%48.75%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.811.982.002.1055.25%50.46%50.00%47.62%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 24.68%4.05cote équitable
EV -1.29%
Avantage -0.324%
Kelly -0.431%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.33%24.61%24.73%26.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.203.763.804.0031.25%26.58%26.32%25.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle3.39I 29.50%NM 28.52%EV -0.644%E -0.190%K -0.269%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.94%EV -5.21%E -2.53%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.54%EV -2.77%E -0.704%K -0.944%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-10 01:35
Svenska Spel3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -1.82%E -0.542%K -0.773%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.58%EV -11.19%E -5.80%K -12.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -1.29%E -0.324%K -0.431%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 21:40
ATG (SE)3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -1.82%E -0.542%K -0.773%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.58%EV -11.19%E -5.80%K -12.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -1.29%E -0.324%K -0.431%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 21:39
BetOnline.ag3.30I 30.30%NM 28.69%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.40%EV -6.13%E -3.00%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.91%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-10 02:25
LowVig.ag3.30I 30.30%NM 28.69%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.40%EV -6.13%E -3.00%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.91%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-10 02:25
Tipico (DE)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -3.76%E -0.965%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-09 13:34
Unibet3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.49%EV -12.11%E -6.34%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -2.53%E -0.640%K -0.857%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 21:40
Unibet (NL)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.49%EV -12.11%E -6.34%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -2.53%E -0.640%K -0.857%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 21:39
Casumo3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.49%EV -12.11%E -6.34%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -2.53%E -0.640%K -0.857%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 21:40
TABtouch3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.49%EV -12.11%E -6.34%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -2.53%E -0.640%K -0.857%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 21:40
Unibet (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.49%EV -12.11%E -6.34%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -2.53%E -0.640%K -0.857%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 21:39
Grosvenor3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.49%EV -12.11%E -6.34%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -2.53%E -0.640%K -0.857%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 21:40
betPARX3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.49%EV -12.11%E -6.34%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -2.53%E -0.640%K -0.857%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 21:40
LeoVegas (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.75%EV -13.03%E -6.90%K -14.64%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -2.53%E -0.640%K -0.857%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-09 21:39
BetRivers3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.75%EV -13.03%E -6.90%K -14.64%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -2.53%E -0.640%K -0.857%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-09 21:40
LeoVegas3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -13.49%E -7.18%K -15.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -3.76%E -0.965%K -1.30%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-09 21:39
Suprabets3.26I 30.67%NM 28.67%EV -4.45%E -1.37%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.27%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.06%EV -7.96%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-10 01:01
1xBet3.25I 30.77%NM 28.82%EV -4.75%E -1.46%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.14%EV -6.59%E -3.25%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.04%EV -7.71%E -2.06%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-10 01:00
Marathon Bet3.25I 30.77%NM 28.69%EV -4.75%E -1.46%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 46.38%EV -7.51%E -3.74%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.93%EV -7.71%E -2.06%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-10 00:59
Everygame3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -4.75%E -1.46%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.54%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -7.46%E -1.99%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 01:00
DraftKings3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -6.21%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.02%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.50%EV -5.00%E -1.30%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 20:09
Codere (IT)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.21%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.75%EV -5.21%E -2.53%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.80%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-10 01:09
Unibet (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.21%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-10 01:09
Fanatics3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.21%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 19:55
Bovada3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.21%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 23:12
BetMGM3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.21%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 19:15
Bet Victor3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -6.21%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 01:03
Betway3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -6.21%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.33%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -7.46%E -1.99%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 21:29
PlayUp3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.21%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -8.70%E -2.35%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-10 01:00
Coolbet3.15I 31.75%NM 30.29%EV -7.68%E -2.44%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.86%EV -4.29%E -2.06%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.85%EV -1.29%E -0.324%K -0.431%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 23:15
theScore Bet3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -7.68%E -2.44%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.35%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -8.70%E -2.35%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 01:09
LiveScore Bet3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -7.68%E -2.44%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -15.79%E -8.63%K -19.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-09 21:39
Virgin Bet3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -7.68%E -2.44%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -15.79%E -8.63%K -19.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-09 21:39
PMU (FR)3.15I 31.75%NM 27.93%EV -7.68%E -2.44%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 48.61%EV -16.71%E -9.23%K -20.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.46%EV -7.46%E -1.99%K -2.71%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-09 21:40
Betclic (FR)3.13I 31.95%NM 28.98%EV -8.26%E -2.64%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -10.27%E -5.27%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.51%EV -8.70%E -2.35%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-10 01:14
FanDuel3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -9.14%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -3.37%E -1.60%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.70%E -2.35%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 23:14
SportsBet3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -9.14%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -8.70%E -2.35%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 23:10
Betsson3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -9.14%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -8.70%E -2.35%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-10 01:09
NordicBet3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -9.14%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -8.70%E -2.35%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-10 02:49
888sport3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.14%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -11.16%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-09 23:04
William Hill3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.14%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -11.16%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-09 23:04
Mr Green (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.14%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -11.16%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-09 23:04
888sport (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.14%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -11.16%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-09 23:04
Betr (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -10.61%E -3.48%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.22%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 23:15
Winamax (DE)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.05%EV -10.61%E -3.48%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.83%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-10 01:09
NetBet (FR)3.05I 32.79%NM 28.51%EV -10.61%E -3.48%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.00%EV -14.87%E -8.04%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.49%EV -12.40%E -3.49%K -4.86%G +0.000%15.0%2026-05-10 01:34
PointsBet (AU)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -12.07%E -4.02%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 23:15
betfred_uk3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -12.07%E -4.02%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -7.46%E -1.99%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 23:14
Paddy Power3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -12.07%E -4.02%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.16%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-09 23:09
Neds3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.07%E -4.02%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.16%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-09 19:15
Coral3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.07%E -4.02%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.16%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-09 19:15
Ladbrokes (AU)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.07%E -4.02%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.16%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-09 19:15
Ladbrokes (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.07%E -4.02%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.16%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-09 19:15
Unibet (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 29.28%EV -12.07%E -4.02%K -6.04%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.98%EV -12.11%E -6.34%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.74%EV -12.40%E -3.49%K -4.86%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-10 01:09
Sky Bet2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -15.00%E -5.17%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.23%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -13.63%E -3.89%K -5.45%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-09 23:09
Winamax (FR)2.90I 34.48%NM 30.30%EV -15.00%E -5.17%K -7.90%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.29%EV -10.73%E -5.53%K -11.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.41%EV -11.16%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-10 01:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.88I 34.72%NM 29.34%EV -15.59%E -5.41%K -8.29%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 44.25%EV -12.11%E -6.34%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.41%EV -21.04%E -6.57%K -9.56%G +0.000%18.3%2026-05-09 23:09
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%1.5%2026-05-10 02:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%1.5%2026-05-10 02:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%1.5%2026-05-10 02:10
Matchbook3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%1.5%2026-05-10 02:10
Smarkets3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.11%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%2.1%2026-05-10 02:10
Kalshi3.33I 30.03%NM 29.13%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.63%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.25%3.1%2026-05-10 01:15