La escuela de los momios

Fortuna Düsseldorf v Elversberg

Inicio: 2026-05-10 11:30 UTC

Final: Fortuna Düsseldorf 3–1 Elversberg

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local)

Predicción 29.31%3.41momio equitativo
EV -0.644%
Ventaja -0.190%
Kelly -0.269%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.39

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.77%29.32%29.39%30.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.163.203.3934.72%31.61%31.25%29.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Elversberg (Visitante)

Predicción 46.01%2.17momio equitativo
EV -3.37%
Ventaja -1.60%
Kelly -3.06%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.23%46.07%45.88%48.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.811.982.002.1055.25%50.46%50.00%47.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.68%4.05momio equitativo
EV -1.29%
Ventaja -0.324%
Kelly -0.431%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.33%24.61%24.73%26.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.763.804.0031.25%26.58%26.32%25.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle3.39I 29.50%NM 28.52%EV -0.644%E -0.190%K -0.269%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.94%EV -5.21%E -2.53%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.54%EV -2.77%E -0.704%K -0.944%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-10 01:35
Svenska Spel3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -1.82%E -0.542%K -0.773%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.58%EV -11.19%E -5.80%K -12.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -1.29%E -0.324%K -0.431%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 21:40
ATG (SE)3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -1.82%E -0.542%K -0.773%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.58%EV -11.19%E -5.80%K -12.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -1.29%E -0.324%K -0.431%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 21:39
BetOnline.ag3.30I 30.30%NM 28.69%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.40%EV -6.13%E -3.00%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.91%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-10 02:25
LowVig.ag3.30I 30.30%NM 28.69%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.40%EV -6.13%E -3.00%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.91%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-10 02:25
Tipico (DE)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -3.76%E -0.965%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-09 13:34
Unibet3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.49%EV -12.11%E -6.34%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -2.53%E -0.640%K -0.857%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 21:40
Unibet (NL)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.49%EV -12.11%E -6.34%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -2.53%E -0.640%K -0.857%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 21:39
Casumo3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.49%EV -12.11%E -6.34%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -2.53%E -0.640%K -0.857%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 21:40
TABtouch3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.49%EV -12.11%E -6.34%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -2.53%E -0.640%K -0.857%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 21:40
Unibet (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.49%EV -12.11%E -6.34%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -2.53%E -0.640%K -0.857%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 21:39
Grosvenor3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.49%EV -12.11%E -6.34%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -2.53%E -0.640%K -0.857%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 21:40
betPARX3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.49%EV -12.11%E -6.34%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -2.53%E -0.640%K -0.857%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 21:40
LeoVegas (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.75%EV -13.03%E -6.90%K -14.64%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -2.53%E -0.640%K -0.857%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-09 21:39
BetRivers3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.75%EV -13.03%E -6.90%K -14.64%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -2.53%E -0.640%K -0.857%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-09 21:40
LeoVegas3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -3.28%E -0.994%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -13.49%E -7.18%K -15.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -3.76%E -0.965%K -1.30%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-09 21:39
Suprabets3.26I 30.67%NM 28.67%EV -4.45%E -1.37%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.27%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.06%EV -7.96%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-10 01:01
1xBet3.25I 30.77%NM 28.82%EV -4.75%E -1.46%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.14%EV -6.59%E -3.25%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.04%EV -7.71%E -2.06%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-10 01:00
Marathon Bet3.25I 30.77%NM 28.69%EV -4.75%E -1.46%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 46.38%EV -7.51%E -3.74%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.93%EV -7.71%E -2.06%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-10 00:59
Everygame3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -4.75%E -1.46%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.54%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -7.46%E -1.99%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 01:00
DraftKings3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -6.21%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.02%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.50%EV -5.00%E -1.30%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 20:09
Codere (IT)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.21%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.75%EV -5.21%E -2.53%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.80%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-10 01:09
Unibet (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.21%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-10 01:09
Fanatics3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.21%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 19:55
Bovada3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.21%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 23:12
BetMGM3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.21%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 19:15
Bet Victor3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -6.21%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 01:03
Betway3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -6.21%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.33%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -7.46%E -1.99%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 21:29
PlayUp3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.21%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -8.70%E -2.35%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-10 01:00
Coolbet3.15I 31.75%NM 30.29%EV -7.68%E -2.44%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.86%EV -4.29%E -2.06%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.85%EV -1.29%E -0.324%K -0.431%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 23:15
theScore Bet3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -7.68%E -2.44%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.35%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -8.70%E -2.35%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 01:09
LiveScore Bet3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -7.68%E -2.44%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -15.79%E -8.63%K -19.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-09 21:39
Virgin Bet3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -7.68%E -2.44%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -15.79%E -8.63%K -19.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-09 21:39
PMU (FR)3.15I 31.75%NM 27.93%EV -7.68%E -2.44%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 48.61%EV -16.71%E -9.23%K -20.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.46%EV -7.46%E -1.99%K -2.71%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-09 21:40
Betclic (FR)3.13I 31.95%NM 28.98%EV -8.26%E -2.64%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -10.27%E -5.27%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.51%EV -8.70%E -2.35%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-10 01:14
FanDuel3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -9.14%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -3.37%E -1.60%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.70%E -2.35%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 23:14
SportsBet3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -9.14%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -8.70%E -2.35%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 23:10
Betsson3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -9.14%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -8.70%E -2.35%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-10 01:09
NordicBet3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -9.14%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -8.70%E -2.35%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-10 02:49
888sport3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.14%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -11.16%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-09 23:04
William Hill3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.14%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -11.16%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-09 23:04
Mr Green (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.14%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -11.16%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-09 23:04
888sport (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.14%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -11.16%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-09 23:04
Betr (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -10.61%E -3.48%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.22%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 23:15
Winamax (DE)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.05%EV -10.61%E -3.48%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.83%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-10 01:09
NetBet (FR)3.05I 32.79%NM 28.51%EV -10.61%E -3.48%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.00%EV -14.87%E -8.04%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.49%EV -12.40%E -3.49%K -4.86%G +0.000%15.0%2026-05-10 01:34
PointsBet (AU)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -12.07%E -4.02%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 23:15
betfred_uk3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -12.07%E -4.02%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -7.46%E -1.99%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 23:14
Paddy Power3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -12.07%E -4.02%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.16%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-09 23:09
Neds3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.07%E -4.02%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.16%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-09 19:15
Coral3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.07%E -4.02%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.16%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-09 19:15
Ladbrokes (AU)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.07%E -4.02%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.16%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-09 19:15
Ladbrokes (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.07%E -4.02%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.16%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-09 19:15
Unibet (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 29.28%EV -12.07%E -4.02%K -6.04%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.98%EV -12.11%E -6.34%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.74%EV -12.40%E -3.49%K -4.86%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-10 01:09
Sky Bet2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -15.00%E -5.17%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.23%EV -7.97%E -3.99%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -13.63%E -3.89%K -5.45%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-09 23:09
Winamax (FR)2.90I 34.48%NM 30.30%EV -15.00%E -5.17%K -7.90%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.29%EV -10.73%E -5.53%K -11.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.41%EV -11.16%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-10 01:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.88I 34.72%NM 29.34%EV -15.59%E -5.41%K -8.29%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 44.25%EV -12.11%E -6.34%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.41%EV -21.04%E -6.57%K -9.56%G +0.000%18.3%2026-05-09 23:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%1.5%2026-05-10 02:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%1.5%2026-05-10 02:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%1.5%2026-05-10 02:10
Matchbook3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%1.5%2026-05-10 02:10
Smarkets3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.11%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%2.1%2026-05-10 02:10
Kalshi3.33I 30.03%NM 29.13%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.63%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.25%3.1%2026-05-10 01:15