Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC St. Pauli v VfL Wolfsburg

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 18:30 UTC

Final: FC St. Pauli 1–0 VfL Wolfsburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC St. Pauli (Local)

Prediction 37.57%2.66fair odd
EV -1.20%
Edge -0.455%
Kelly -0.735%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.20%37.61%37.58%39.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.432.452.6344.44%41.23%40.82%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfL Wolfsburg (Visit)

Prediction 36.46%2.74fair odd
EV -1.56%
Edge -0.578%
Kelly -0.918%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.55%36.48%36.41%37.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.372.562.552.7042.19%39.05%39.22%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.97%3.85fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -0.551%
Kelly -0.750%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.06%25.92%26.01%26.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.553.573.7730.30%28.20%28.01%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC St. Pauli (Local): 37.57%; VfL Wolfsburg (Visit): 36.46%; Draw: 25.97%. For FC St. Pauli (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.63, with an expected value of -1.20%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.81%EV -1.20%E -0.455%K -0.735%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.52%EV -5.94%E -2.30%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.68%EV -2.08%E -0.551%K -0.750%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-12 18:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -2.32%E -0.894%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -8.85%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 18:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.20%E -1.65%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.47%EV -5.21%E -2.00%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-12 18:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -4.20%E -1.65%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -7.03%E -2.76%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 18:15
1xBet🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.43%EV -4.58%E -1.80%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.87%EV -3.38%E -1.28%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.70%EV -7.53%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 18:29
Coolbet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -6.08%E -2.43%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.21%E -2.00%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -2.60%E -0.693%K -0.945%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 18:20
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -6.08%E -2.43%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.21%E -2.00%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 18:15
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -6.08%E -2.43%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.21%E -2.00%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 18:05
FanDuel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -6.08%E -2.43%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.03%E -2.76%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 18:20
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.08%E -2.43%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.03%E -2.76%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 18:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.40%EV -6.83%E -2.76%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.93%EV -3.38%E -1.28%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.67%EV -3.64%E -0.980%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-12 18:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.40%EV -6.83%E -2.76%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.93%EV -3.38%E -1.28%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.67%EV -3.64%E -0.980%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-12 18:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 37.92%EV -7.58%E -3.08%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.02%EV -5.57%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.06%EV -7.01%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 18:25
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -7.96%E -3.25%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -5.21%E -2.00%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -3.90%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-12 18:25
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -7.96%E -3.25%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.03%E -2.76%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 18:20
betano_uk🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -7.96%E -3.25%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.03%E -2.76%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 18:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -7.96%E -3.25%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.09%EV -8.85%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -3.90%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 18:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -7.96%E -3.25%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.09%EV -8.85%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -3.90%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 18:20
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.72%EV -7.96%E -3.25%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -7.03%E -2.76%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -7.79%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-12 18:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.72%EV -7.96%E -3.25%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.96%EV -8.85%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -5.20%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-12 18:15
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -7.96%E -3.25%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -7.03%E -2.76%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-12 18:26
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -7.96%E -3.25%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -8.85%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 18:25
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -7.96%E -3.25%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -8.85%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 18:15
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -7.96%E -3.25%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -8.85%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 18:06
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -7.96%E -3.25%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -8.85%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 18:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -7.96%E -3.25%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -8.85%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 18:06
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -7.96%E -3.25%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -8.85%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 18:05
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.14%EV -7.96%E -3.25%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.10%EV -8.12%E -3.22%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-12 18:15
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.14%EV -7.96%E -3.25%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.10%EV -8.12%E -3.22%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-12 18:14
Suprabets🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.13%EV -8.71%E -3.58%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.48%EV -7.39%E -2.91%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -5.20%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-12 18:28
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -9.84%E -4.10%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -3.38%E -1.28%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:20
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -9.84%E -4.10%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -8.85%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 18:20
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -9.84%E -4.10%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.85%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 18:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -9.84%E -4.10%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.85%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 18:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -9.84%E -4.10%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.85%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 18:05
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -9.84%E -4.10%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.85%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 18:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -9.84%E -4.10%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.85%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 18:05
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -9.84%E -4.10%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.85%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 18:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.23%EV -9.84%E -4.10%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.23%EV -12.50%E -5.21%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-12 18:15
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -9.84%E -4.10%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -10.68%E -4.36%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-12 18:20
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%EV -10.59%E -4.45%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -1.56%E -0.578%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -5.20%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%EV -10.59%E -4.45%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -1.56%E -0.578%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -5.20%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 17:55
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%EV -10.59%E -4.45%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -1.56%E -0.578%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -5.20%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 17:55
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%EV -10.59%E -4.45%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -1.56%E -0.578%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -5.20%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%EV -10.59%E -4.45%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -1.56%E -0.578%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -5.20%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 17:55
betPARX🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%EV -10.59%E -4.45%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -1.56%E -0.578%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -5.20%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 17:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%EV -10.59%E -4.45%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -1.56%E -0.578%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -5.20%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%EV -10.59%E -4.45%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -1.56%E -0.578%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -5.20%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 17:55
NetBet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.99%EV -11.72%E -4.99%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 36.67%EV -13.59%E -5.74%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.34%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000%15.1%2026-09-12 18:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 37.67%EV -12.47%E -5.35%K -9.37%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.12%EV -11.41%E -4.69%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.20%EV -12.99%E -3.88%K -5.53%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-12 18:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -13.60%E -5.91%K -10.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -8.85%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-12 18:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.55%EV -14.35%E -6.29%K -11.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.68%EV -5.21%E -2.00%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-12 17:55
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.55%EV -14.35%E -6.29%K -11.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.68%EV -5.21%E -2.00%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-12 17:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.40%EV -14.35%E -6.29%K -11.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.55%EV -5.21%E -2.00%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.04%EV -10.39%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-12 17:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.40%EV -14.35%E -6.29%K -11.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.55%EV -5.21%E -2.00%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.04%EV -10.39%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-12 17:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -15.47%E -6.88%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.68%EV -7.03%E -2.76%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.01%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-12 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.72%2.76I 36.23%NM 36.08%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.20%0.4%2026-09-12 18:25
Smarkets◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.86%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.59%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.54%0.5%2026-09-12 18:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.34%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.52%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.14%0.7%2026-09-12 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.34%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.52%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.14%0.7%2026-09-12 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.62%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.25%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.14%0.7%2026-09-12 18:25
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 37.63%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.66%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71%1.0%2026-09-12 18:25