Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.95
assuming max odds 4.14
assuming max odds 3.70
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Schalke 04 (Local): 49.58%; Arminia Bielefeld (Visit): 24.05%; Draw: 26.37%. For Arminia Bielefeld (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.16. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.14, with an expected value of -0.450%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -3.32%E -1.70%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -3.82%E -0.954%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 16:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.20%EV -4.31%E -2.23%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 4.14I 24.15%NM 23.40%EV -0.450%E -0.109%K -0.143%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.40%EV -3.21%E -0.874%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-06 17:16 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.54%EV -4.31%E -2.23%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.90%EV -3.82%E -0.954%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.56%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-06 17:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -5.30%E -2.78%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -3.82%E -0.954%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 12:51 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -5.30%E -2.78%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -6.22%E -1.60%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 14:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -5.30%E -2.78%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -6.22%E -1.60%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 17:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.84%EV -5.30%E -2.78%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -9.83%E -2.62%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%EV -6.37%E -1.79%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-06 14:31 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.66%EV -5.30%E -2.78%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -9.83%E -2.62%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-06 17:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.66%EV -5.30%E -2.78%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -9.83%E -2.62%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-06 17:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -5.30%E -2.78%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -11.03%E -2.98%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-06 17:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -5.30%E -2.78%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -8.63%E -2.27%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-06 17:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.63%EV -5.80%E -3.05%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -6.22%E -1.60%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-06 14:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.79%EV -5.80%E -3.05%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -9.83%E -2.62%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-06 17:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.01%EV -6.79%E -3.61%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -3.82%E -0.954%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -6.37%E -1.79%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-06 17:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -6.79%E -3.61%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -8.63%E -2.27%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-06 14:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -6.79%E -3.61%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -8.63%E -2.27%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-06 14:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.98%EV -7.29%E -3.90%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%EV -1.41%E -0.344%K -0.455%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.77%EV -2.42%E -0.653%K -0.895%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 16:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.98%EV -7.29%E -3.90%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%EV -1.41%E -0.344%K -0.455%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.77%EV -2.42%E -0.653%K -0.895%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 16:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.84%EV -7.29%E -3.90%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 4.14I 24.15%NM 22.97%EV -0.450%E -0.109%K -0.143%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.19%EV -4.26%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 17:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.24%EV -7.29%E -3.90%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -1.41%E -0.344%K -0.455%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-06 17:19 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.89%EV -7.29%E -3.90%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 23.68%EV -5.26%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 26.43%EV -6.90%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-06 16:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.66%EV -7.29%E -3.90%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -6.22%E -1.60%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 17:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.16%EV -7.78%E -4.18%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -6.22%E -1.60%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-06 14:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.09%EV -7.78%E -4.18%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -3.82%E -0.954%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-06 17:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.52%EV -7.78%E -4.18%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -11.03%E -2.98%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-06 14:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.96%EV -8.28%E -4.47%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -3.82%E -0.954%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -2.42%E -0.653%K -0.895%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-06 17:15 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.93%EV -8.28%E -4.47%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -6.22%E -1.60%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-06 16:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -8.28%E -4.47%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -6.22%E -1.60%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-06 16:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -8.28%E -4.47%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -6.22%E -1.60%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-06 16:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -8.28%E -4.47%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -6.22%E -1.60%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-06 16:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.11%EV -9.27%E -5.06%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -8.63%E -2.27%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-06 17:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.80%EV -9.27%E -5.06%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -11.03%E -2.98%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-06 12:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.80%EV -9.27%E -5.06%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -11.03%E -2.98%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-06 12:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.80%EV -9.27%E -5.06%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -11.03%E -2.98%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-06 12:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.80%EV -9.27%E -5.06%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -11.03%E -2.98%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-06 12:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.80%EV -10.26%E -5.67%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -1.41%E -0.344%K -0.455%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -2.42%E -0.653%K -0.895%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-06 17:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.80%EV -10.26%E -5.67%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -1.41%E -0.344%K -0.455%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -2.42%E -0.653%K -0.895%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-06 17:10 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.61%EV -10.76%E -5.98%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.13%EV -11.03%E -2.98%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.26%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-06 17:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.54%EV -10.76%E -5.98%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 24.23%EV -11.51%E -3.13%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.23%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-06 17:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.17%EV -10.76%E -5.98%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.60%EV -9.83%E -2.62%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.23%EV -14.28%E -4.40%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-03-06 17:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.93%EV -10.76%E -5.98%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -15.84%E -4.53%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.90%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-03-06 14:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 47.62%EV -10.76%E -5.98%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.81%EV -13.43%E -3.73%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -20.88%E -6.96%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-03-06 17:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.89%EV -11.25%E -6.29%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -1.41%E -0.344%K -0.455%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -3.73%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 17:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.89%EV -11.25%E -6.29%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -1.41%E -0.344%K -0.455%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -3.73%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 17:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.89%EV -11.25%E -6.29%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -1.41%E -0.344%K -0.455%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -3.73%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 17:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.89%EV -11.25%E -6.29%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -1.41%E -0.344%K -0.455%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -3.73%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 17:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.89%EV -11.25%E -6.29%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -1.41%E -0.344%K -0.455%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -3.73%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 17:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.89%EV -11.25%E -6.29%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -1.41%E -0.344%K -0.455%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -3.73%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 17:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.89%EV -11.25%E -6.29%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -1.41%E -0.344%K -0.455%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -3.73%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 17:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.03%EV -11.75%E -6.60%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -1.41%E -0.344%K -0.455%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -3.73%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-06 17:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.03%EV -11.75%E -6.60%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -1.41%E -0.344%K -0.455%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -3.73%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-06 17:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.88%EV -12.24%E -6.92%K -15.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -3.82%E -0.954%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -3.73%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-06 17:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.88%EV -14.23%E -8.22%K -19.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.97%EV -13.43%E -3.73%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.15%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 15.9% | 2026-03-06 17:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 51.89%EV -15.22%E -8.90%K -21.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.75%EV -6.22%E -1.60%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-06 17:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 51.89%EV -15.22%E -8.90%K -21.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.75%EV -6.22%E -1.60%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-06 17:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 49.79%EV -16.71%E -9.94%K -24.57%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.23%EV -13.43%E -3.73%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 26.98%EV -18.24%E -5.88%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 19.6% | 2026-03-06 17:20 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.19% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.15% | 0.6% | 2026-03-06 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.89% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 0.7% | 2026-03-06 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.01% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.58% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.41% | 1.0% | 2026-03-06 17:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.84% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.49% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.67% | 1.3% | 2026-03-06 17:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.84% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.49% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.67% | 1.3% | 2026-03-06 17:25 |