Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arminia Bielefeld v SV Darmstadt 98

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arminia Bielefeld (Local)

Prediction 41.08%2.43fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -0.933%
Kelly -1.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.44%41.03%41.07%42.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.272.252.3848.78%44.14%44.44%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SV Darmstadt 98 (Visit)

Prediction 32.84%3.04fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -0.600%
Kelly -0.902%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.94%32.88%32.84%34.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.772.802.9939.22%36.04%35.71%33.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.07%3.84fair odd
EV -2.49%
Edge -0.666%
Kelly -0.909%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.09%26.09%26.09%27.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.523.553.7432.26%28.42%28.17%26.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arminia Bielefeld (Local): 41.08%; SV Darmstadt 98 (Visit): 32.84%; Draw: 26.07%. For SV Darmstadt 98 (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.04. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.99, with an expected value of -1.80%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.77%EV -2.22%E -0.933%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.00%EV -3.44%E -1.17%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.23%EV -3.53%E -0.955%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-04 10:09
BetOnline.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.77%EV -2.22%E -0.933%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.00%EV -3.44%E -1.17%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.23%EV -3.53%E -0.955%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-04 10:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -2.22%E -0.933%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -9.68%E -3.52%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-01 00:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -2.22%E -0.933%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -9.68%E -3.52%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-01 00:05
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -6.39%E -2.24%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 02:25
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -6.39%E -2.24%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 10:09
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 00:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 00:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 10:14
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 00:05
Casumo🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 00:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 00:04
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 00:05
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 10:15
betPARX🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 00:04
LeoVegas🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.44%EV -4.27%E -1.83%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -12.96%E -4.89%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 10:15
Pinnacle🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.73%EV -4.69%E -2.02%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 32.38%EV -1.80%E -0.600%K -0.902%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.89%EV -2.49%E -0.666%K -0.909%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-04 10:20
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.51%E -2.39%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.23%EV -6.39%E -2.24%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -3.53%E -0.955%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-04 10:09
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.12%EV -5.51%E -2.39%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -4.75%E -1.64%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-04 10:08
Codere (IT)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.51%E -2.39%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -6.39%E -2.24%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 10:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.51%E -2.39%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -6.39%E -2.24%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 10:14
1xBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.74%EV -5.51%E -2.39%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.23%EV -7.38%E -2.62%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-03 15:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -5.51%E -2.39%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -9.68%E -3.52%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-04 10:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -5.51%E -2.39%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -9.68%E -3.52%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-04 10:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -3.11%E -1.05%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-04 10:29
Everygame🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -4.75%E -1.64%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 10:09
Suprabets🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.32%EV -5.08%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.16%EV -6.92%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:08
Marathon Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.62%EV -6.07%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 10:09
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -6.39%E -2.24%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 10:27
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -4.75%E -1.64%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 10:14
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.27%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -6.39%E -2.24%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 10:15
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -5.41%E -1.88%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 10:15
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.21%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.30%EV -5.74%E -2.00%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 10:14
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -8.04%E -2.87%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 10:20
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.81%EV -7.38%E -2.62%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 10:14
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.81%EV -7.38%E -2.62%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 10:15
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.03%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -8.04%E -2.87%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 10:09
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.04%E -2.87%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 10:15
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.04%E -2.87%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 10:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.04%E -2.87%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 10:09
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.04%E -2.87%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 10:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -14.60%E -5.62%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-01 00:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -14.60%E -5.62%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-01 00:04
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.52%EV -8.38%E -3.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.56%EV -16.25%E -6.37%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-04 10:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -9.68%E -3.52%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.09%EV -4.84%E -1.33%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-04 10:15
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -8.04%E -2.87%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-04 10:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 10:09
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 10:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 10:09
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 10:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.85%EV -10.85%E -5.00%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.43%EV -8.04%E -2.87%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.72%EV -7.97%E -2.26%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 10:14
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -11.67%E -5.43%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -9.68%E -3.52%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -13.96%E -4.23%K -6.07%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-04 10:13
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.08%EV -11.67%E -5.43%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.33%EV -12.96%E -4.89%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.60%EV -10.05%E -2.91%K -4.10%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-04 10:14
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.15%EV -13.72%E -6.54%K -12.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -9.68%E -3.52%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.66%EV -10.05%E -2.91%K -4.10%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-04 10:15
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.49%EV -13.72%E -6.54%K -12.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.88%EV -12.96%E -4.89%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.63%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-04 10:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.39%EV -13.72%E -6.54%K -12.48%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.25%EV -13.62%E -5.18%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.36%EV -19.18%E -6.19%K -9.13%G +0.000%17.9%2026-04-04 10:14
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.76%EV -15.78%E -7.70%K -15.03%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.30%EV -12.96%E -4.89%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.94%EV -13.96%E -4.23%K -6.07%G +0.000%16.8%2026-03-26 17:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.38I 42.02%NM 41.77%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16%0.6%2026-04-04 10:30
Kalshi2.50I 40.00%NM 39.59%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.66%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%1.0%2026-04-04 10:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.55%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02%1.1%2026-04-04 10:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.55%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02%1.1%2026-04-04 10:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.55%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02%1.1%2026-04-04 10:30
Smarkets2.36I 42.37%NM 41.39%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.56%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.05%2.4%2026-04-04 10:15