La escuela de los momios

Arminia Bielefeld v SV Darmstadt 98

Inicio: 2026-04-04 11:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Arminia Bielefeld (Local)

Predicción 41.08%2.43momio equitativo
EV -2.22%
Ventaja -0.933%
Kelly -1.61%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.44%41.03%41.07%42.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.052.272.252.3848.78%44.14%44.44%42.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

SV Darmstadt 98 (Visitante)

Predicción 32.84%3.04momio equitativo
EV -1.80%
Ventaja -0.600%
Kelly -0.902%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.99

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.94%32.88%32.84%34.68%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.552.772.802.9939.22%36.04%35.71%33.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.07%3.84momio equitativo
EV -2.49%
Ventaja -0.666%
Kelly -0.909%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.74

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.09%26.09%26.09%27.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.523.553.7432.26%28.42%28.17%26.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
LowVig.ag2.38I 42.02%NM 40.77%EV -2.22%E -0.933%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.00%EV -3.44%E -1.17%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.23%EV -3.53%E -0.955%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-04 10:09
BetOnline.ag2.38I 42.02%NM 40.77%EV -2.22%E -0.933%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.00%EV -3.44%E -1.17%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.23%EV -3.53%E -0.955%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-04 10:10
ATG (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -2.22%E -0.933%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -9.68%E -3.52%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-01 00:05
Svenska Spel2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -2.22%E -0.933%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -9.68%E -3.52%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-01 00:05
DraftKings2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -6.39%E -2.24%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 02:25
Coolbet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -6.39%E -2.24%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 10:09
Unibet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 00:05
Unibet (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 00:04
LeoVegas (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 10:14
Grosvenor2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 00:05
Casumo2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 00:05
Unibet (NL)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 00:04
TABtouch2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 00:05
BetRivers2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 10:15
betPARX2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 00:04
LeoVegas2.33I 42.92%NM 39.44%EV -4.27%E -1.83%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -12.96%E -4.89%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 10:15
Pinnacle2.32I 43.10%NM 41.73%EV -4.69%E -2.02%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 32.38%EV -1.80%E -0.600%K -0.902%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.89%EV -2.49%E -0.666%K -0.909%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-04 10:20
BetMGM2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.51%E -2.39%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.23%EV -6.39%E -2.24%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -3.53%E -0.955%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-04 10:09
Fanatics2.30I 43.48%NM 41.12%EV -5.51%E -2.39%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -4.75%E -1.64%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-04 10:08
Codere (IT)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.51%E -2.39%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -6.39%E -2.24%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 10:19
Unibet (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.51%E -2.39%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -6.39%E -2.24%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 10:14
1xBet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.74%EV -5.51%E -2.39%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.23%EV -7.38%E -2.62%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-03 15:50
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -5.51%E -2.39%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -9.68%E -3.52%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-04 10:10
PointsBet (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -5.51%E -2.39%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -9.68%E -3.52%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-04 10:10
Tipico (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -3.11%E -1.05%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-04 10:29
Everygame2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -4.75%E -1.64%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 10:09
Suprabets2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.32%EV -5.08%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.16%EV -6.92%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:08
Marathon Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.62%EV -6.07%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 10:09
Bovada2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -6.39%E -2.24%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 10:27
FanDuel2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -4.75%E -1.64%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 10:14
theScore Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.27%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -6.39%E -2.24%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 10:15
Bet Victor2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -5.41%E -1.88%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 10:15
SportsBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.21%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.30%EV -5.74%E -2.00%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 10:14
Betway2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -8.04%E -2.87%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 10:20
Betsson2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.81%EV -7.38%E -2.62%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 10:14
NordicBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.81%EV -7.38%E -2.62%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 10:15
PlayUp2.25I 44.44%NM 41.03%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -8.04%E -2.87%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 10:09
William Hill2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.04%E -2.87%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 10:15
888sport2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.04%E -2.87%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 10:09
Mr Green (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.04%E -2.87%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 10:09
888sport (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.04%E -2.87%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 10:10
Virgin Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -14.60%E -5.62%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-01 00:04
LiveScore Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -7.56%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -14.60%E -5.62%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-01 00:04
PMU (FR)2.23I 44.84%NM 39.52%EV -8.38%E -3.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.56%EV -16.25%E -6.37%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-04 10:15
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -9.68%E -3.52%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.09%EV -4.84%E -1.33%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-04 10:15
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -8.04%E -2.87%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-04 10:15
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 10:09
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 10:10
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 10:09
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -11.32%E -4.19%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 10:09
Betclic (FR)2.17I 46.08%NM 41.85%EV -10.85%E -5.00%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.43%EV -8.04%E -2.87%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.72%EV -7.97%E -2.26%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 10:14
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -11.67%E -5.43%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -9.68%E -3.52%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -13.96%E -4.23%K -6.07%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-04 10:13
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.08%EV -11.67%E -5.43%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.33%EV -12.96%E -4.89%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.60%EV -10.05%E -2.91%K -4.10%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-04 10:14
Unibet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.15%EV -13.72%E -6.54%K -12.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -9.68%E -3.52%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.66%EV -10.05%E -2.91%K -4.10%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-04 10:15
NetBet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.49%EV -13.72%E -6.54%K -12.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.88%EV -12.96%E -4.89%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.63%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-04 10:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.39%EV -13.72%E -6.54%K -12.48%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.25%EV -13.62%E -5.18%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.36%EV -19.18%E -6.19%K -9.13%G +0.000%17.9%2026-04-04 10:14
Parions Sport (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 41.76%EV -15.78%E -7.70%K -15.03%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.30%EV -12.96%E -4.89%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.94%EV -13.96%E -4.23%K -6.07%G +0.000%16.8%2026-03-26 17:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.38I 42.02%NM 41.77%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16%0.6%2026-04-04 10:30
Kalshi2.50I 40.00%NM 39.59%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.66%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%1.0%2026-04-04 10:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.55%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02%1.1%2026-04-04 10:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.55%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02%1.1%2026-04-04 10:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.55%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02%1.1%2026-04-04 10:30
Smarkets2.36I 42.37%NM 41.39%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.56%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.05%2.4%2026-04-04 10:15