Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arminia Bielefeld v Hannover 96

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arminia Bielefeld (Local)

Prediction 34.80%2.87fair odd
EV +2.67%
Edge +0.906%
Kelly +1.37%
Growth +0.037%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.46%34.62%34.81%35.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.692.682.9541.67%37.14%37.31%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hannover 96 (Visit)

Prediction 38.54%2.60fair odd
EV -2.89%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.22%38.72%38.55%41.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.382.392.5245.45%42.10%41.84%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.66%3.75fair odd
EV -3.76%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.80%26.66%26.64%28.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.433.453.6133.33%29.12%28.99%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arminia Bielefeld (Local): 34.80%; Hannover 96 (Visit): 38.54%; Draw: 26.66%. For Arminia Bielefeld (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.87. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.67%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV +2.67%E +0.906%K +1.37%G +0.037%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -13.30%E -5.91%K -10.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 00:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -0.807%E -0.283%K -0.436%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -9.44%E -4.02%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -6.69%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-22 18:44
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -0.807%E -0.283%K -0.436%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -9.44%E -4.02%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -6.69%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-22 18:45
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -0.807%E -0.283%K -0.436%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.22%EV -10.60%E -4.57%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -8.02%E -2.33%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 18:45
Grosvenor🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -0.807%E -0.283%K -0.436%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.22%EV -10.60%E -4.57%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -8.02%E -2.33%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 18:44
TABtouch🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -0.807%E -0.283%K -0.436%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.22%EV -10.60%E -4.57%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -8.02%E -2.33%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 18:45
Casumo🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -0.807%E -0.283%K -0.436%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.22%EV -10.60%E -4.57%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -8.02%E -2.33%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 18:44
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -0.807%E -0.283%K -0.436%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.22%EV -10.60%E -4.57%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -8.02%E -2.33%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 18:44
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -0.807%E -0.283%K -0.436%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.22%EV -10.60%E -4.57%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -8.02%E -2.33%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 18:44
betPARX🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -0.807%E -0.283%K -0.436%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.22%EV -10.60%E -4.57%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -8.02%E -2.33%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 18:44
Pinnacle🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 34.45%EV -2.20%E -0.783%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.73%EV -3.66%E -1.46%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.82%EV -3.76%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-28 11:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.62%EV -2.55%E -0.910%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.46%EV -2.89%E -1.15%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.92%EV -4.02%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-28 11:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.62%EV -2.55%E -0.910%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.46%EV -2.89%E -1.15%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.92%EV -4.02%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-28 11:05
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.98%EV -2.55%E -0.910%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.83%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -6.69%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-28 11:05
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -2.55%E -0.910%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.19%EV -11.37%E -4.94%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -8.02%E -2.33%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-22 18:44
LeoVegas🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -2.55%E -0.910%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.19%EV -11.37%E -4.94%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -8.02%E -2.33%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-22 18:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -2.55%E -0.910%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.19%EV -11.37%E -4.94%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -8.02%E -2.33%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-22 18:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.29%E -1.56%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -7.51%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -4.02%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-28 11:40
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.06%EV -6.03%E -2.23%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.64%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -4.02%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 11:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.88%EV -6.03%E -2.23%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.59%EV -5.97%E -2.45%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.53%EV -5.36%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 11:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -6.03%E -2.23%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -6.69%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-28 11:40
FanDuel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -6.03%E -2.23%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -6.69%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-28 11:39
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -6.03%E -2.23%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.84%EV -7.51%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -6.69%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-28 11:36
Betr (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -6.03%E -2.23%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -7.51%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-28 11:40
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -6.03%E -2.23%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -11.37%E -4.94%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -6.69%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-25 16:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%EV -6.03%E -2.23%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.97%EV -14.07%E -6.31%K -11.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -12.02%E -3.64%K -5.23%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-22 18:44
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%EV -6.03%E -2.23%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.97%EV -14.07%E -6.31%K -11.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -12.02%E -3.64%K -5.23%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-22 18:44
NordicBet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.56%EV -6.72%E -2.51%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -7.51%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -8.02%E -2.33%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-28 11:40
Betsson🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.56%EV -6.72%E -2.51%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -7.51%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -8.02%E -2.33%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-28 11:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.95%EV -7.07%E -2.65%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -6.36%E -2.62%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -6.69%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 11:40
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.63%EV -7.77%E -2.93%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.77%EV -3.66%E -1.46%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -5.36%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 11:40
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -7.77%E -2.93%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.69%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 11:40
Everygame🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -7.77%E -2.93%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.69%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 11:40
1xBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.17%EV -7.77%E -2.93%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.78%EV -7.22%E -2.08%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-28 11:40
theScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -7.77%E -2.93%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -7.51%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -6.69%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-28 11:40
Suprabets🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.42%EV -8.12%E -3.07%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.86%EV -4.82%E -1.95%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -6.69%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-28 11:37
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.49%EV -8.81%E -3.36%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.56%EV -6.69%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-28 11:40
SportsBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -8.81%E -3.36%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-28 11:40
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -8.81%E -3.36%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-28 11:40
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -8.81%E -3.36%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-28 11:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -8.81%E -3.36%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-28 11:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -8.81%E -3.36%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-28 11:40
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -8.81%E -3.36%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -7.51%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -6.69%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-28 11:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.97%EV -9.44%E -4.02%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.80%EV -5.36%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-28 11:40
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.73%EV -7.51%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -12.02%E -3.64%K -5.23%G +0.000%10.4%2026-02-28 11:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.72%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.93%EV -8.29%E -3.48%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -12.02%E -3.64%K -5.23%G +0.000%10.8%2026-02-28 11:40
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.72%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.93%EV -8.29%E -3.48%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -12.02%E -3.64%K -5.23%G +0.000%10.8%2026-02-28 11:40
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.66%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.03%EV -8.67%E -3.66%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.31%EV -12.02%E -3.64%K -5.23%G +0.000%11.0%2026-02-28 11:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.66%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.03%EV -8.67%E -3.66%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.31%EV -12.02%E -3.64%K -5.23%G +0.000%11.0%2026-02-28 11:40
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.57%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.77%EV -8.29%E -3.48%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.66%EV -13.35%E -4.11%K -5.94%G +0.000%11.2%2026-02-28 11:40
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.37%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.72%EV -13.30%E -5.91%K -10.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -8.02%E -2.33%K -3.27%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-28 11:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 34.54%EV -10.20%E -3.96%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.09%EV -12.14%E -5.32%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.37%EV -9.89%E -2.93%K -4.16%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-28 11:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.13%EV -12.99%E -5.20%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.04%EV -13.30%E -5.91%K -10.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.83%EV -9.36%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%13.9%2026-02-28 11:40
NetBet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.68%EV -12.99%E -5.20%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 39.05%EV -14.45%E -6.51%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.27%EV -12.02%E -3.64%K -5.23%G +0.000%15.3%2026-02-28 11:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.24%EV -12.99%E -5.20%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.22%EV -11.37%E -4.94%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.54%EV -20.02%E -6.67%K -10.01%G +0.000%16.8%2026-02-28 11:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 34.90%EV -16.47%E -6.86%K -11.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.08%EV -15.22%E -6.92%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.02%EV -17.35%E -5.60%K -8.26%G +0.000%19.4%2026-02-28 11:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.82I 35.46%NM 35.13%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.77%0.9%2026-02-28 11:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.82I 35.46%NM 35.13%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.77%0.9%2026-02-28 11:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.82I 35.46%NM 35.13%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.77%0.9%2026-02-28 11:40
Matchbook2.82I 35.46%NM 35.13%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.77%0.9%2026-02-28 11:40
Smarkets2.78I 35.97%NM 35.35%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.09%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.56%1.8%2026-02-28 11:40