Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Kaiserslautern v Fortuna Düsseldorf

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Kaiserslautern (Local)

Prediction 35.40%2.82fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -0.833%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.56%35.49%35.39%38.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.542.502.7644.44%39.34%40.00%36.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fortuna Düsseldorf (Visit)

Prediction 39.16%2.55fair odd
EV +4.17%
Edge +1.57%
Kelly +2.51%
Growth +0.105%

assuming max odds 2.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.08%39.16%39.19%40.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.422.402.6645.45%41.41%41.67%37.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.44%3.93fair odd
EV +1.76%
Edge +0.441%
Kelly +0.588%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.90%25.35%25.42%27.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.603.604.0032.26%27.82%27.78%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (Local): 35.40%; Fortuna Düsseldorf (Visit): 39.16%; Draw: 25.44%. For Fortuna Düsseldorf (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.55. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.66, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.17%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -13.98%E -5.75%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.08%EV +4.17%E +1.57%K +2.51%G +0.105%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.51%EV -10.45%E -2.97%K -4.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-03 16:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV -12.21%E -4.92%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 10:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV -12.21%E -4.92%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 10:19
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:19
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:20
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:20
TABtouch🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:19
betPARX🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.72%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -0.142%E -0.056%K -0.091%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -9.69%E -2.73%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 10:19
BetRivers🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.72%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -0.142%E -0.056%K -0.091%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -9.69%E -2.73%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 10:20
LeoVegas🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.92%EV -13.98%E -5.75%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.13%EV -0.142%E -0.056%K -0.091%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -9.69%E -2.73%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-04 10:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 35.22%EV -2.30%E -0.833%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.20%EV -2.88%E -1.16%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.58%EV -3.33%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 10:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 35.22%EV -2.30%E -0.833%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.20%EV -2.88%E -1.16%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.58%EV -3.33%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 10:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.04%EV -16.81%E -7.15%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.05%EV -2.88%E -1.16%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -12.23%E -3.54%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 10:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.04%EV -16.81%E -7.15%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.05%EV -2.88%E -1.16%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -12.23%E -3.54%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 10:19
Pinnacle🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 35.72%EV -4.07%E -1.50%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.20%EV -3.27%E -1.33%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.08%EV -1.80%E -0.466%K -0.629%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-04 10:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 37.93%EV -17.52%E -7.52%K -13.17%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.07%EV -4.06%E -1.66%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.99%EV -13.50%E -3.97%K -5.63%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-04 10:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.96%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.17%EV -5.62%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -7.14%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 07:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.03%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV -5.87%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-04 10:14
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.58%EV -6.19%E -2.34%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.28%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -4.60%E -1.23%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-04 10:10
Bovada🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.46%EV -6.19%E -2.34%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.15%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -5.87%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 10:27
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.46%EV -6.19%E -2.34%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.15%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -5.87%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 10:14
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -3.33%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 10:19
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.01%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -4.60%E -1.23%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 10:19
Suprabets🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 35.78%EV -7.61%E -2.91%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.91%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.31%EV -6.12%E -1.66%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:14
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -6.19%E -2.34%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 07:44
theScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -6.19%E -2.34%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 07:44
Everygame🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -7.14%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 10:14
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.03%EV -20.35%E -9.05%K -16.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.65%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.33%EV -17.32%E -5.33%K -7.70%G +0.000%16.9%2026-03-22 18:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.20%EV -6.19%E -2.34%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.03%EV -6.41%E -2.68%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.77%EV -7.90%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 10:30
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.08%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.14%EV -5.87%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 10:29
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -7.25%E -2.77%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.92%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 07:44
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -7.25%E -2.77%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.92%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 07:44
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -7.25%E -2.77%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.92%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 10:20
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -10.96%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-04 10:15
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -10.96%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-04 10:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -10.96%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-04 10:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -10.96%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-04 10:15
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.69%EV -7.97%E -3.39%K -5.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.90%EV +1.76%E +0.441%K +0.588%G +0.010%4.6%2026-04-04 10:09
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.56%EV -2.65%E -0.964%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.44%EV -7.97%E -3.39%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV -3.33%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 10:08
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.60%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.39%EV -7.97%E -3.39%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -5.87%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 10:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.53%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -3.33%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 10:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.53%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -3.33%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 10:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.30%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -5.87%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-04 07:44
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-04 10:19
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.96%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 10:13
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -13.50%E -3.97%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-04 10:14
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -13.50%E -3.97%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-04 10:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -13.50%E -3.97%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-04 10:15
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -13.50%E -3.97%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-04 10:14
Betclic (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.56%EV -6.90%E -2.62%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.04%EV -11.11%E -4.89%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.39%EV -8.92%E -2.49%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-04 07:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.86%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.04%EV -11.89%E -5.28%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.10%EV -10.96%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-04 07:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.63%EV -9.73%E -3.82%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.14%EV -13.85%E -6.29%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -10.96%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-04 07:45
NetBet (FR)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 35.23%EV -12.56%E -5.09%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.55%EV -13.85%E -6.29%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.22%EV -12.23%E -3.54%K -4.99%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-04 10:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 34.90%EV -15.04%E -6.27%K -10.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.08%EV -13.85%E -6.29%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.02%EV -21.13%E -6.82%K -10.06%G +0.000%19.4%2026-04-04 10:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.80I 35.71%NM 35.68%2.56I 39.06%NM 39.03%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.29%0.1%2026-04-04 10:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.76I 36.23%NM 36.01%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.83%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%0.6%2026-04-04 10:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.76I 36.23%NM 36.01%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.83%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%0.6%2026-04-04 10:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.76I 36.23%NM 36.01%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.83%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%0.6%2026-04-04 10:30
Smarkets2.74I 36.50%NM 35.95%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.79%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.26%1.5%2026-04-04 10:30
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 35.95%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.83%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.21%3.0%2026-04-04 10:30