L’École des cotes

1. FC Kaiserslautern v Fortuna Düsseldorf

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-04 11:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

1. FC Kaiserslautern (Local)

Prévision 35.40%2.82cote équitable
EV -2.30%
Avantage -0.833%
Kelly -1.31%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.76

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
34.56%35.49%35.39%38.40%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.252.542.502.7644.44%39.34%40.00%36.23%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Fortuna Düsseldorf (Visiteur)

Prévision 39.16%2.55cote équitable
EV +4.17%
Avantage +1.57%
Kelly +2.51%
Croissance +0.105%

avec la cote maximale 2.66

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.08%39.16%39.19%40.69%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.202.422.402.6645.45%41.41%41.67%37.59%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.44%3.93cote équitable
EV +1.76%
Avantage +0.441%
Kelly +0.588%
Croissance +0.010%

avec la cote maximale 4.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.90%25.35%25.42%27.02%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.603.604.0032.26%27.82%27.78%25.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -13.98%E -5.75%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.08%EV +4.17%E +1.57%K +2.51%G +0.105%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.51%EV -10.45%E -2.97%K -4.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-03 16:25
ATG (SE)2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV -12.21%E -4.92%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 10:19
Svenska Spel2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV -12.21%E -4.92%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 10:19
Unibet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:19
Unibet (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:19
Grosvenor2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:20
Casumo2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:20
Unibet (NL)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:20
TABtouch2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:19
betPARX2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:19
LeoVegas (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.72%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -0.142%E -0.056%K -0.091%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -9.69%E -2.73%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 10:19
BetRivers2.45I 40.82%NM 37.72%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -0.142%E -0.056%K -0.091%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -9.69%E -2.73%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 10:20
LeoVegas2.43I 41.15%NM 37.92%EV -13.98%E -5.75%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.13%EV -0.142%E -0.056%K -0.091%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -9.69%E -2.73%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-04 10:20
LowVig.ag2.76I 36.23%NM 35.22%EV -2.30%E -0.833%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.20%EV -2.88%E -1.16%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.58%EV -3.33%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 10:15
BetOnline.ag2.76I 36.23%NM 35.22%EV -2.30%E -0.833%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.20%EV -2.88%E -1.16%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.58%EV -3.33%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 10:15
Virgin Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 38.04%EV -16.81%E -7.15%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.05%EV -2.88%E -1.16%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -12.23%E -3.54%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 10:19
LiveScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 38.04%EV -16.81%E -7.15%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.05%EV -2.88%E -1.16%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -12.23%E -3.54%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 10:19
Pinnacle2.71I 36.90%NM 35.72%EV -4.07%E -1.50%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.20%EV -3.27%E -1.33%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.08%EV -1.80%E -0.466%K -0.629%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-04 10:20
PMU (FR)2.33I 42.92%NM 37.93%EV -17.52%E -7.52%K -13.17%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.07%EV -4.06%E -1.66%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.99%EV -13.50%E -3.97%K -5.63%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-04 10:20
Codere (IT)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.96%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.17%EV -5.62%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -7.14%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 07:50
Tipico (DE)2.70I 37.04%NM 35.03%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV -5.87%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-04 10:14
DraftKings2.65I 37.74%NM 35.58%EV -6.19%E -2.34%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.28%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -4.60%E -1.23%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-04 10:10
Bovada2.65I 37.74%NM 35.46%EV -6.19%E -2.34%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.15%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -5.87%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 10:27
BetMGM2.65I 37.74%NM 35.46%EV -6.19%E -2.34%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.15%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -5.87%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 10:14
FanDuel2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -3.33%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 10:19
SportsBet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.01%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -4.60%E -1.23%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 10:19
Suprabets2.61I 38.31%NM 35.78%EV -7.61%E -2.91%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.91%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.31%EV -6.12%E -1.66%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:14
Unibet (UK)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -6.19%E -2.34%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 07:44
theScore Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -6.19%E -2.34%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 07:44
Everygame2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -7.14%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 10:14
Parions Sport (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 38.03%EV -20.35%E -9.05%K -16.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.65%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.33%EV -17.32%E -5.33%K -7.70%G +0.000%16.9%2026-03-22 18:19
Marathon Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.20%EV -6.19%E -2.34%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.03%EV -6.41%E -2.68%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.77%EV -7.90%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 10:30
Bet Victor2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.08%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.14%EV -5.87%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 10:29
Betsson2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -7.25%E -2.77%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.92%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 07:44
NordicBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -7.25%E -2.77%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.92%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 07:44
Betway2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -7.25%E -2.77%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.92%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 10:20
888sport2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -10.96%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-04 10:15
William Hill2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -10.96%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-04 10:15
888sport (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -10.96%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-04 10:10
Mr Green (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -10.96%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-04 10:15
Coolbet2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.69%EV -7.97%E -3.39%K -5.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.90%EV +1.76%E +0.441%K +0.588%G +0.010%4.6%2026-04-04 10:09
Fanatics2.75I 36.36%NM 34.56%EV -2.65%E -0.964%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.44%EV -7.97%E -3.39%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV -3.33%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 10:08
PlayUp2.60I 38.46%NM 35.60%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.39%EV -7.97%E -3.39%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -5.87%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 10:09
Betr (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.53%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -3.33%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 10:10
PointsBet (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.53%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -3.33%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 10:10
Winamax (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.30%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -5.87%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-04 07:44
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-04 10:19
Sky Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.96%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 10:13
Ladbrokes (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -13.50%E -3.97%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-04 10:14
Neds2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -13.50%E -3.97%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-04 10:10
Ladbrokes (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -13.50%E -3.97%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-04 10:15
Coral2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -13.50%E -3.97%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-04 10:14
Betclic (FR)2.63I 38.02%NM 34.56%EV -6.90%E -2.62%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.04%EV -11.11%E -4.89%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.39%EV -8.92%E -2.49%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-04 07:49
Winamax (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 35.86%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.04%EV -11.89%E -5.28%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.10%EV -10.96%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-04 07:45
Unibet (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 34.63%EV -9.73%E -3.82%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.14%EV -13.85%E -6.29%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -10.96%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-04 07:45
NetBet (FR)2.47I 40.49%NM 35.23%EV -12.56%E -5.09%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.55%EV -13.85%E -6.29%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.22%EV -12.23%E -3.54%K -4.99%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-04 10:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 34.90%EV -15.04%E -6.27%K -10.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.08%EV -13.85%E -6.29%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.02%EV -21.13%E -6.82%K -10.06%G +0.000%19.4%2026-04-04 10:14
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook2.80I 35.71%NM 35.68%2.56I 39.06%NM 39.03%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.29%0.1%2026-04-04 10:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.76I 36.23%NM 36.01%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.83%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%0.6%2026-04-04 10:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.76I 36.23%NM 36.01%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.83%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%0.6%2026-04-04 10:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.76I 36.23%NM 36.01%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.83%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%0.6%2026-04-04 10:30
Smarkets2.74I 36.50%NM 35.95%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.79%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.26%1.5%2026-04-04 10:30
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 35.95%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.83%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.21%3.0%2026-04-04 10:30