La escuela de los momios

1. FC Kaiserslautern v Fortuna Düsseldorf

Inicio: 2026-04-04 11:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

1. FC Kaiserslautern (Local)

Predicción 35.40%2.82momio equitativo
EV -2.30%
Ventaja -0.833%
Kelly -1.31%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.76

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.56%35.49%35.39%38.40%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.252.542.502.7644.44%39.34%40.00%36.23%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Fortuna Düsseldorf (Visitante)

Predicción 39.16%2.55momio equitativo
EV +4.17%
Ventaja +1.57%
Kelly +2.51%
Crecimiento +0.105%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.66

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.08%39.16%39.19%40.69%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.202.422.402.6645.45%41.41%41.67%37.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.44%3.93momio equitativo
EV +1.76%
Ventaja +0.441%
Kelly +0.588%
Crecimiento +0.010%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.90%25.35%25.42%27.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.603.604.0032.26%27.82%27.78%25.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -13.98%E -5.75%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.08%EV +4.17%E +1.57%K +2.51%G +0.105%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.51%EV -10.45%E -2.97%K -4.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-03 16:25
ATG (SE)2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV -12.21%E -4.92%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 10:19
Svenska Spel2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV -12.21%E -4.92%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 10:19
Unibet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:19
Unibet (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:19
Grosvenor2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:20
Casumo2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:20
Unibet (NL)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:20
TABtouch2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:19
betPARX2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV +1.82%E +0.699%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:19
LeoVegas (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.72%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -0.142%E -0.056%K -0.091%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -9.69%E -2.73%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 10:19
BetRivers2.45I 40.82%NM 37.72%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -0.142%E -0.056%K -0.091%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -9.69%E -2.73%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 10:20
LeoVegas2.43I 41.15%NM 37.92%EV -13.98%E -5.75%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.13%EV -0.142%E -0.056%K -0.091%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -9.69%E -2.73%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-04 10:20
LowVig.ag2.76I 36.23%NM 35.22%EV -2.30%E -0.833%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.20%EV -2.88%E -1.16%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.58%EV -3.33%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 10:15
BetOnline.ag2.76I 36.23%NM 35.22%EV -2.30%E -0.833%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.20%EV -2.88%E -1.16%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.58%EV -3.33%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 10:15
Virgin Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 38.04%EV -16.81%E -7.15%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.05%EV -2.88%E -1.16%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -12.23%E -3.54%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 10:19
LiveScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 38.04%EV -16.81%E -7.15%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.05%EV -2.88%E -1.16%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -12.23%E -3.54%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 10:19
Pinnacle2.71I 36.90%NM 35.72%EV -4.07%E -1.50%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.20%EV -3.27%E -1.33%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.08%EV -1.80%E -0.466%K -0.629%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-04 10:20
PMU (FR)2.33I 42.92%NM 37.93%EV -17.52%E -7.52%K -13.17%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.07%EV -4.06%E -1.66%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.99%EV -13.50%E -3.97%K -5.63%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-04 10:20
Codere (IT)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.96%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.17%EV -5.62%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -7.14%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 07:50
Tipico (DE)2.70I 37.04%NM 35.03%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV -5.87%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-04 10:14
DraftKings2.65I 37.74%NM 35.58%EV -6.19%E -2.34%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.28%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -4.60%E -1.23%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-04 10:10
Bovada2.65I 37.74%NM 35.46%EV -6.19%E -2.34%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.15%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -5.87%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 10:27
BetMGM2.65I 37.74%NM 35.46%EV -6.19%E -2.34%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.15%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -5.87%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 10:14
FanDuel2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -3.33%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 10:19
SportsBet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.01%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -4.60%E -1.23%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 10:19
Suprabets2.61I 38.31%NM 35.78%EV -7.61%E -2.91%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.91%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.31%EV -6.12%E -1.66%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 10:14
Unibet (UK)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -6.19%E -2.34%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 07:44
theScore Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -6.19%E -2.34%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 07:44
Everygame2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -7.14%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 10:14
Parions Sport (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 38.03%EV -20.35%E -9.05%K -16.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.65%EV -6.02%E -2.51%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.33%EV -17.32%E -5.33%K -7.70%G +0.000%16.9%2026-03-22 18:19
Marathon Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.20%EV -6.19%E -2.34%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.03%EV -6.41%E -2.68%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.77%EV -7.90%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 10:30
Bet Victor2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.08%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.14%EV -5.87%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 10:29
Betsson2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -7.25%E -2.77%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.92%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 07:44
NordicBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -7.25%E -2.77%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.92%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 07:44
Betway2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -7.25%E -2.77%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.92%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 10:20
888sport2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -10.96%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-04 10:15
William Hill2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -10.96%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-04 10:15
888sport (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -10.96%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-04 10:10
Mr Green (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -6.80%E -2.86%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -10.96%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-04 10:15
Coolbet2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.69%EV -7.97%E -3.39%K -5.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.90%EV +1.76%E +0.441%K +0.588%G +0.010%4.6%2026-04-04 10:09
Fanatics2.75I 36.36%NM 34.56%EV -2.65%E -0.964%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.44%EV -7.97%E -3.39%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV -3.33%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 10:08
PlayUp2.60I 38.46%NM 35.60%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.39%EV -7.97%E -3.39%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -5.87%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 10:09
Betr (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.53%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -3.33%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 10:10
PointsBet (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.53%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -3.33%E -0.875%K -1.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 10:10
Winamax (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.30%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -5.87%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-04 07:44
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -8.41%E -2.34%K -3.24%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-04 10:19
Sky Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.96%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 10:13
Ladbrokes (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -13.50%E -3.97%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-04 10:14
Neds2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -13.50%E -3.97%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-04 10:10
Ladbrokes (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -13.50%E -3.97%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-04 10:15
Coral2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -9.93%E -4.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -13.50%E -3.97%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-04 10:14
Betclic (FR)2.63I 38.02%NM 34.56%EV -6.90%E -2.62%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.04%EV -11.11%E -4.89%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.39%EV -8.92%E -2.49%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-04 07:49
Winamax (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 35.86%EV -13.27%E -5.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.04%EV -11.89%E -5.28%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.10%EV -10.96%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-04 07:45
Unibet (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 34.63%EV -9.73%E -3.82%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.14%EV -13.85%E -6.29%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -10.96%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-04 07:45
NetBet (FR)2.47I 40.49%NM 35.23%EV -12.56%E -5.09%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.55%EV -13.85%E -6.29%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.22%EV -12.23%E -3.54%K -4.99%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-04 10:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 34.90%EV -15.04%E -6.27%K -10.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.08%EV -13.85%E -6.29%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.02%EV -21.13%E -6.82%K -10.06%G +0.000%19.4%2026-04-04 10:14
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.80I 35.71%NM 35.68%2.56I 39.06%NM 39.03%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.29%0.1%2026-04-04 10:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.76I 36.23%NM 36.01%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.83%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%0.6%2026-04-04 10:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.76I 36.23%NM 36.01%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.83%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%0.6%2026-04-04 10:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.76I 36.23%NM 36.01%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.83%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%0.6%2026-04-04 10:30
Smarkets2.74I 36.50%NM 35.95%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.79%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.26%1.5%2026-04-04 10:30
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 35.95%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.83%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.21%3.0%2026-04-04 10:30