Language:English
VfL Wolfsburg v SC Paderborn
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
VfL Wolfsburg (Local)
Prediction 57.76%1.73fair odd
EV +1.07%
Edge +0.614%
Kelly +1.43%
Growth +0.015%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.08%57.67%57.69%59.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.631.641.7563.69%61.20%60.98%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
SC Paderborn (Visit)
Prediction 18.55%5.39fair odd
EV +3.86%
Edge +0.689%
Kelly +0.839%
Growth +0.032%
assuming max odds 5.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.88%18.68%18.69%20.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.065.005.6021.74%19.74%20.00%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.70%4.22fair odd
EV +0.710%
Edge +0.167%
Kelly +0.219%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 4.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.22%23.65%23.62%25.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.963.984.2527.03%25.25%25.13%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfL Wolfsburg (Local): 57.76%; SC Paderborn (Visit): 18.55%; Draw: 23.70%. For SC Paderborn (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.39. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.86%.
Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.32%EV -7.59%E -4.74%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.95%EV +3.86%E +0.689%K +0.839%G +0.032% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -5.21%E -1.30%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-21 18:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.40%EV -4.70%E -2.85%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 5.52I 18.12%NM 17.46%EV +2.38%E +0.431%K +0.526%G +0.013% | 3.99I 25.06%NM 24.15%EV -5.45%E -1.37%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.03%EV -7.59%E -4.74%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV +2.01%E +0.365%K +0.446%G +0.009% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -12.32%E -3.33%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.23%EV -4.12%E -2.48%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.90%EV +0.152%E +0.028%K +0.035%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.87%EV -4.03%E -0.995%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.23%EV -4.12%E -2.48%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.90%EV +0.152%E +0.028%K +0.035%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.87%EV -4.03%E -0.995%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.00%EV -5.28%E -3.22%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.61%EV +0.152%E +0.028%K +0.035%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.39%EV -7.58%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-21 18:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.13%EV -4.70%E -2.85%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 5.36I 18.66%NM 17.89%EV -0.590%E -0.110%K -0.135%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.98%EV -5.21%E -1.30%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.16%EV -3.55%E -2.12%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 18.15%EV -0.776%E -0.145%K -0.178%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%EV -2.84%E -0.694%K -0.917%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-21 18:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.02%EV -6.43%E -3.97%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.21%EV -2.63%E -0.501%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.77%EV -0.474%E -0.113%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.19%EV -4.70%E -2.85%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -2.63%E -0.501%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -9.95%E -2.62%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-21 18:18 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.01%EV -6.43%E -3.97%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.90%EV -2.63%E -0.501%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -7.58%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-21 18:19 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.85%EV -5.28%E -3.22%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.25%EV -3.56%E -0.684%K -0.847%G +0.000% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 23.90%EV -5.92%E -1.49%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-21 18:07 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.63%EV -0.658%E -0.383%K -0.914%G +0.000% | 5.09I 19.65%NM 19.14%EV -5.60%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.02I 24.88%NM 24.23%EV -4.74%E -1.18%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.20%EV -4.70%E -2.85%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV -7.27%E -1.45%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.60%EV +0.710%E +0.167%K +0.219%G +0.002% | 4.1% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -4.70%E -2.85%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -7.27%E -1.45%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -5.21%E -1.30%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -4.70%E -2.85%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -7.27%E -1.45%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -5.21%E -1.30%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -4.70%E -2.85%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -7.27%E -1.45%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -5.21%E -1.30%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.32%EV -7.01%E -4.35%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.78%EV -7.27%E -1.45%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -2.84%E -0.694%K -0.917%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-21 17:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -6.43%E -3.97%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -7.27%E -1.45%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.21%E -1.30%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.08%EV -9.32%E -5.94%K -16.35%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.24%EV -7.27%E -1.45%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.68%EV -8.77%E -2.28%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.67%EV -2.97%E -1.77%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.23%EV -8.19%E -1.66%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.10%EV -6.40%E -1.62%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-21 17:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.86%EV -9.32%E -5.94%K -16.35%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.54%EV -9.12%E -1.86%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -8.77%E -2.28%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.33%EV -7.59%E -4.74%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -10.98%E -2.29%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -0.474%E -0.113%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-21 18:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.75%EV -5.28%E -3.22%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -10.98%E -2.29%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -7.58%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.75%EV -5.28%E -3.22%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -10.98%E -2.29%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -7.58%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.24%EV -4.70%E -2.85%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -10.98%E -2.29%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -9.95%E -2.62%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-21 18:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -7.01%E -4.35%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -10.98%E -2.29%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -9.95%E -2.62%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -7.01%E -4.35%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -10.98%E -2.29%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -9.95%E -2.62%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -7.01%E -4.35%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -10.98%E -2.29%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -9.95%E -2.62%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.35%EV -9.32%E -5.94%K -16.35%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -11.90%E -2.51%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -9.95%E -2.62%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-21 18:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.08%EV +1.07%E +0.614%K +1.43%G +0.015% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.51%EV -12.83%E -2.73%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.40%EV -6.40%E -1.62%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-21 06:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.84%EV -8.74%E -5.53%K -15.08%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -14.69%E -3.19%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.29%EV -2.84%E -0.694%K -0.917%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.79% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.66% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.55% | 1.8% | 2026-05-21 18:20 |