The School of Odds

Bayern Munich v VfB Stuttgart

2026-08-28 18:30 — Bundesliga - Germany

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (6 in analysis)

Option 1: Bayern Munich (Local)

Odds
1.1586.96%Min
1.2182.34%Mean
1.2281.97%Median
1.2778.74%Max
Consensus probabilities
73.01%1.370Min
77.81%1.285Max
76.69%1.304Mean
76.85%1.301Median
76.73%1.303IQM
76.89%1.301Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.27 under the IQM model: 76.73%

EV -2.55%Edge -2.01%Kelly -9.46%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: VfB Stuttgart (Visit)

Odds
7.0014.29%Min
9.6810.33%Mean
9.7510.26%Median
11.009.09%Max
Consensus probabilities
8.54%11.709Min
11.99%8.337Max
9.87%10.134Mean
9.75%10.261Median
9.82%10.181IQM
9.73%10.276Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 11.00 under the IQM model: 9.82%

EV +8.04%Edge +0.731%Kelly +0.804%Growth +0.065%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
5.6017.86%Min
6.7314.85%Mean
6.6315.09%Median
7.5013.33%Max
Consensus probabilities
12.60%7.937Min
14.99%6.670Max
13.44%7.441Mean
13.40%7.463Median
13.45%7.436IQM
13.38%7.474Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 7.50 under the IQM model: 13.45%

EV +0.864%Edge +0.115%Kelly +0.133%Growth +0.001%

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

BookmakerBayern Munich (Local)VfB Stuttgart (Visit) ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coral1.22I 81.97% NM 77.81%EV -6.39% E -5.24% K -29.05% G +0.000%11.00I 9.09% NM 8.63%EV +8.04% E +0.731% K +0.804% G +0.065%7.00I 14.29% NM 13.56%EV -5.86% E -0.837% K -0.977% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 13:55
Ladbrokes (AU)1.22I 81.97% NM 77.01%EV -6.39% E -5.24% K -29.05% G +0.000%11.00I 9.09% NM 8.54%EV +8.04% E +0.731% K +0.804% G +0.065%6.50I 15.38% NM 14.45%EV -12.58% E -1.94% K -2.29% G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-05 14:10
Neds1.22I 81.97% NM 77.01%EV -6.39% E -5.24% K -29.05% G +0.000%11.00I 9.09% NM 8.54%EV +8.04% E +0.731% K +0.804% G +0.065%6.50I 15.38% NM 14.45%EV -12.58% E -1.94% K -2.29% G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-05 14:15
1xBet1.27I 78.74% NM 77.46%EV -2.55% E -2.01% K -9.46% G +0.000%10.60I 9.43% NM 9.28%EV +4.11% E +0.388% K +0.429% G +0.018%7.42I 13.48% NM 13.26%EV -0.212% E -0.029% K -0.033% G +0.000%1.7%2026-07-03 15:30
Marathon Bet1.25I 80.00% NM 77.50%EV -4.09% E -3.27% K -16.35% G +0.000%10.50I 9.52% NM 9.23%EV +3.13% E +0.298% K +0.330% G +0.010%7.30I 13.70% NM 13.27%EV -1.83% E -0.250% K -0.290% G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-03 15:25
SportsBet1.22I 81.97% NM 77.49%EV -6.39% E -5.24% K -29.05% G +0.000%10.50I 9.52% NM 9.00%EV +3.13% E +0.298% K +0.330% G +0.010%7.00I 14.29% NM 13.51%EV -5.86% E -0.837% K -0.977% G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-03 11:25
Betr (AU)1.22I 81.97% NM 77.11%EV -6.39% E -5.24% K -29.05% G +0.000%10.50I 9.52% NM 8.96%EV +3.13% E +0.298% K +0.330% G +0.010%6.75I 14.81% NM 13.94%EV -9.22% E -1.37% K -1.60% G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-03 14:30
Codere (IT)1.24I 80.65% NM 76.86%EV -4.86% E -3.92% K -20.23% G +0.000%10.00I 10.00% NM 9.53%EV -1.78% E -0.178% K -0.198% G +0.000%7.00I 14.29% NM 13.61%EV -5.86% E -0.837% K -0.977% G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-03 20:25
betfred_uk1.22I 81.97% NM 77.14%EV -6.39% E -5.24% K -29.05% G +0.000%10.00I 10.00% NM 9.41%EV -1.78% E -0.178% K -0.198% G +0.000%7.00I 14.29% NM 13.45%EV -5.86% E -0.837% K -0.977% G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-03 14:35
Paddy Power1.20I 83.33% NM 76.65%EV -7.92% E -6.60% K -39.62% G +0.000%10.00I 10.00% NM 9.20%EV -1.78% E -0.178% K -0.198% G +0.000%6.50I 15.38% NM 14.15%EV -12.58% E -1.94% K -2.29% G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-03 15:10
Tipico (DE)1.22I 81.97% NM 77.45%EV -6.39% E -5.24% K -29.05% G +0.000%9.50I 10.53% NM 9.95%EV -6.69% E -0.704% K -0.787% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.60%EV +0.864% E +0.115% K +0.133% G +0.001%5.8%2026-07-03 17:40
Sky Bet1.22I 81.97% NM 75.98%EV -6.39% E -5.24% K -29.05% G +0.000%9.50I 10.53% NM 9.76%EV -6.69% E -0.704% K -0.787% G +0.000%6.50I 15.38% NM 14.26%EV -12.58% E -1.94% K -2.29% G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-03 11:25
Hard Rock Bet1.22I 81.97% NM 75.98%EV -6.39% E -5.24% K -29.05% G +0.000%9.50I 10.53% NM 9.76%EV -6.69% E -0.704% K -0.787% G +0.000%6.50I 15.38% NM 14.26%EV -12.58% E -1.94% K -2.29% G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-03 17:45
FanDuel1.18I 84.75% NM 77.35%EV -9.46% E -8.02% K -52.55% G +0.000%9.50I 10.53% NM 9.61%EV -6.69% E -0.704% K -0.787% G +0.000%7.00I 14.29% NM 13.04%EV -5.86% E -0.837% K -0.977% G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-03 14:35
LeoVegas1.22I 81.97% NM 75.57%EV -6.39% E -5.24% K -29.05% G +0.000%9.00I 11.11% NM 10.24%EV -11.60% E -1.29% K -1.45% G +0.000%6.50I 15.38% NM 14.18%EV -12.58% E -1.94% K -2.29% G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-03 17:45
Unibet (UK)1.22I 81.97% NM 75.57%EV -6.39% E -5.24% K -29.05% G +0.000%9.00I 11.11% NM 10.24%EV -11.60% E -1.29% K -1.45% G +0.000%6.50I 15.38% NM 14.18%EV -12.58% E -1.94% K -2.29% G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-03 16:40
Winamax (DE)1.21I 82.64% NM 76.03%EV -7.16% E -5.92% K -34.08% G +0.000%8.50I 11.76% NM 10.82%EV -16.51% E -1.94% K -2.20% G +0.000%7.00I 14.29% NM 13.14%EV -5.86% E -0.837% K -0.977% G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-03 17:45
BoyleSports1.20I 83.33% NM 75.43%EV -7.92% E -6.60% K -39.62% G +0.000%8.50I 11.76% NM 10.65%EV -16.51% E -1.94% K -2.20% G +0.000%6.50I 15.38% NM 13.92%EV -12.58% E -1.94% K -2.29% G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-05 11:50
Unibet (FR)1.17I 85.47% NM 75.22%EV -10.23% E -8.74% K -60.16% G +0.000%8.50I 11.76% NM 10.35%EV -16.51% E -1.94% K -2.20% G +0.000%6.10I 16.39% NM 14.43%EV -17.96% E -2.94% K -3.52% G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-03 21:00
Betclic (FR)1.17I 85.47% NM 74.62%EV -10.23% E -8.74% K -60.16% G +0.000%8.25I 12.12% NM 10.58%EV -18.97% E -2.30% K -2.62% G +0.000%5.90I 16.95% NM 14.80%EV -20.65% E -3.50% K -4.21% G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-03 17:43
Winamax (FR)1.15I 86.96% NM 73.01%EV -11.76% E -10.23% K -78.41% G +0.000%7.00I 14.29% NM 11.99%EV -31.25% E -4.46% K -5.21% G +0.000%5.60I 17.86% NM 14.99%EV -24.69% E -4.41% K -5.37% G +0.000%19.1%2026-07-03 17:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerBayern Munich (Local)VfB Stuttgart (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.17I 85.47%7.60I 13.16%5.60I 17.86%16.5%2026-07-03 17:45