Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Troyes v Stade Lavallois

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 18:00 UTC

Final: Troyes 4–0 Stade Lavallois

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Troyes (Local)

Prediction 59.02%1.69fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -3.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.76%59.07%59.06%61.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.551.551.6667.11%64.60%64.52%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Stade Lavallois (Visit)

Prediction 18.49%5.41fair odd
EV +3.55%
Edge +0.633%
Kelly +0.771%
Growth +0.027%

assuming max odds 5.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.40%18.43%18.48%21.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.335.095.005.6023.09%19.64%20.00%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.49%4.45fair odd
EV +2.79%
Edge +0.610%
Kelly +0.781%
Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 4.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.80%22.50%22.45%24.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.074.104.5728.57%24.58%24.39%21.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Troyes (Local): 59.02%; Stade Lavallois (Visit): 18.49%; Draw: 22.49%. For Stade Lavallois (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.41. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.55%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -11.47%E -7.65%K -22.95%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.40%EV +3.55%E +0.633%K +0.771%G +0.027%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -7.78%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 09:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -11.47%E -7.65%K -22.95%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.40%EV +3.55%E +0.633%K +0.771%G +0.027%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -7.78%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 09:50
TABtouch🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -11.47%E -7.65%K -22.95%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.40%EV +3.55%E +0.633%K +0.771%G +0.027%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -7.78%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 09:50
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -11.47%E -7.65%K -22.95%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.40%EV +3.55%E +0.633%K +0.771%G +0.027%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -7.78%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 09:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -11.47%E -7.65%K -22.95%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.40%EV +3.55%E +0.633%K +0.771%G +0.027%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -7.78%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 09:50
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -11.47%E -7.65%K -22.95%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.40%EV +3.55%E +0.633%K +0.771%G +0.027%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -7.78%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 09:50
LeoVegas🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -11.47%E -7.65%K -22.95%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.40%EV +3.55%E +0.633%K +0.771%G +0.027%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -7.78%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 09:50
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -11.47%E -7.65%K -22.95%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.40%EV +3.55%E +0.633%K +0.771%G +0.027%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -7.78%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 09:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -11.47%E -7.65%K -22.95%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.40%EV +3.55%E +0.633%K +0.771%G +0.027%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -7.78%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 09:50
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -11.47%E -7.65%K -22.95%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.40%EV +3.55%E +0.633%K +0.771%G +0.027%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -7.78%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 09:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -11.47%E -7.65%K -22.95%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.40%EV +3.55%E +0.633%K +0.771%G +0.027%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -7.78%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 09:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -11.47%E -7.65%K -22.95%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.40%EV +3.55%E +0.633%K +0.771%G +0.027%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -7.78%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 09:50
Bet Victor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.25%EV -8.52%E -5.50%K -15.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV +1.70%E +0.309%K +0.377%G +0.006%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -7.78%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 17:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.19%EV -12.06%E -8.10%K -24.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV +1.70%E +0.309%K +0.377%G +0.006%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.24%EV -7.78%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-02 09:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.19%EV -12.06%E -8.10%K -24.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV +1.70%E +0.309%K +0.377%G +0.006%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.24%EV -7.78%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-02 09:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.19%EV -12.06%E -8.10%K -24.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV +1.70%E +0.309%K +0.377%G +0.006%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.24%EV -7.78%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-02 09:50
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.45%EV -4.98%E -3.09%K -8.17%G +0.000%5.42I 18.45%NM 17.66%EV +0.218%E +0.040%K +0.049%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.90%EV -5.98%E -1.43%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-02 17:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.19%EV -8.52%E -5.50%K -15.50%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -2.00%E -0.377%K -0.465%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -5.53%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 17:40
FanDuel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.71%EV -7.93%E -5.08%K -14.16%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -2.00%E -0.377%K -0.465%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -7.78%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 17:45
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.32%EV -5.57%E -3.48%K -9.29%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -2.93%E -0.557%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -5.53%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 16:50
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.47%EV -6.16%E -3.88%K -10.44%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -2.93%E -0.557%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.53%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 17:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.30%EV -6.75%E -4.27%K -11.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -2.93%E -0.557%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -7.78%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 16:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.12%EV -7.34%E -4.68%K -12.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -2.93%E -0.557%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -10.03%E -2.51%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-02 16:55
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.27%EV -7.93%E -5.08%K -14.16%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.61%EV -2.93%E -0.557%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -10.03%E -2.51%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 16:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.45%EV -10.29%E -6.77%K -19.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.67%EV -3.85%E -0.740%K -0.917%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88%EV -5.53%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 16:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.35%EV -5.57%E -3.48%K -9.29%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.31%EV -5.70%E -1.12%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -10.03%E -2.51%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 17:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.35%EV -5.57%E -3.48%K -9.29%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.31%EV -5.70%E -1.12%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -10.03%E -2.51%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 17:55
Bovada🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.81%EV -7.34%E -4.68%K -12.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.10%EV -5.70%E -1.12%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.03%E -2.51%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 17:54
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.62%EV -6.16%E -3.88%K -10.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -7.55%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -7.78%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 17:15
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -7.34%E -4.68%K -12.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -7.55%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -5.53%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 13:19
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -7.34%E -4.68%K -12.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -7.55%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -10.03%E -2.51%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 16:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.24%EV -8.52%E -5.50%K -15.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -7.55%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -7.78%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 17:50
Everygame🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -7.34%E -4.68%K -12.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -7.55%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -12.28%E -3.15%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-02 17:35
SportsBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -9.70%E -6.34%K -18.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -7.55%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -10.03%E -2.51%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 17:45
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -9.70%E -6.34%K -18.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -7.55%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -14.53%E -3.82%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-02 17:45
Suprabets🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.00%EV -7.34%E -4.68%K -12.88%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.59%EV -9.40%E -1.92%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 23.41%EV -12.51%E -3.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 17:37
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.60%EV -6.75%E -4.27%K -11.64%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.09%EV -10.32%E -2.13%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.31%EV -6.66%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 17:05
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.60%EV -6.75%E -4.27%K -11.64%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.09%EV -10.32%E -2.13%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.31%EV -6.66%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 16:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.91%EV -7.34%E -4.68%K -12.88%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.07%EV -10.32%E -2.13%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -5.53%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-02 17:34
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.07%EV -8.52%E -5.50%K -15.50%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.56%EV -10.32%E -2.13%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.38%EV -13.41%E -3.48%K -4.70%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-02 17:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.49%EV -5.57%E -3.48%K -9.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.50%EV -11.25%E -2.34%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -4.41%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 16:55
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -7.34%E -4.68%K -12.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -11.25%E -2.34%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -10.03%E -2.51%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 17:50
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -7.34%E -4.68%K -12.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -11.25%E -2.34%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -10.03%E -2.51%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -7.34%E -4.68%K -12.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -11.25%E -2.34%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -10.03%E -2.51%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -7.34%E -4.68%K -12.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -11.25%E -2.34%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -10.03%E -2.51%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 17:50
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.09%EV -9.70%E -6.34%K -18.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -11.25%E -2.34%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -14.53%E -3.82%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-02 17:45
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.21%EV -5.57%E -3.48%K -9.29%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -12.17%E -2.56%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -5.53%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 17:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.86%EV -8.52%E -5.50%K -15.50%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.41%EV -13.09%E -2.79%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.72%EV -5.53%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 17:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.40%EV -7.93%E -5.08%K -14.16%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.38%EV -13.09%E -2.79%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.22%EV -7.78%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 16:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.02%EV -9.11%E -5.92%K -16.88%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.34%EV -13.09%E -2.79%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -5.53%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 16:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.02%EV -9.11%E -5.92%K -16.88%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.34%EV -13.09%E -2.79%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -5.53%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 16:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.99%EV -8.52%E -5.50%K -15.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -14.94%E -3.25%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -10.03%E -2.51%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-02 13:20
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.99%EV -8.52%E -5.50%K -15.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -14.94%E -3.25%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -10.03%E -2.51%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-02 13:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.99%EV -8.52%E -5.50%K -15.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -14.94%E -3.25%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -10.03%E -2.51%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-02 13:20
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.99%EV -8.52%E -5.50%K -15.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -14.94%E -3.25%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -10.03%E -2.51%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-02 13:20
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.38%EV -9.70%E -6.34%K -18.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.51%EV -16.79%E -3.73%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.10%EV -14.53%E -3.82%K -5.19%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-02 17:13
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 56.76%EV -11.47%E -7.65%K -22.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.92%EV -16.79%E -3.73%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.32%EV -21.28%E -6.08%K -8.51%G +0.000%17.5%2026-05-02 17:45
1xBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.25%EV -2.03%E -1.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.95%EV -19.94%E -4.60%K -5.99%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 20.80%EV +2.79%E +0.610%K +0.781%G +0.022%5.2%2026-05-02 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.62I 61.73%NM 61.18%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.80%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.02%0.9%2026-05-02 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 61.00%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.04%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.96%1.2%2026-05-02 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.62I 61.73%NM 61.00%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.04%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.96%1.2%2026-05-02 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.61I 62.11%NM 61.15%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.97%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%1.6%2026-05-02 17:55
Smarkets1.62I 61.73%NM 60.02%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.36%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.61%2.8%2026-05-02 17:55