Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sochaux v Guingamp

Kickoff: 2026-08-21 18:00 UTC

Final: Sochaux 1–0 Guingamp

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sochaux (Local)

Prediction 34.44%2.90fair odd
EV -2.88%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.87%34.41%34.39%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.642.622.8240.00%37.91%38.17%35.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Guingamp (Visit)

Prediction 36.36%2.75fair odd
EV -3.66%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.99%36.29%36.41%37.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.542.552.6541.67%39.36%39.22%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.20%3.42fair odd
EV -3.92%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -1.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.54%29.30%29.20%31.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.123.103.2934.48%32.06%32.26%30.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sochaux (Local): 34.44%; Guingamp (Visit): 36.36%; Draw: 29.20%. For Sochaux (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.90. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.82, with an expected value of -2.88%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.37%EV -2.88%E -1.02%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.76%EV -6.93%E -2.71%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -8.01%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-21 17:39
LowVig.ag🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.37%EV -2.88%E -1.02%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.76%EV -6.93%E -2.71%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -8.01%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-21 17:39
Pinnacle🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 34.26%EV -3.22%E -1.15%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.47%EV -4.02%E -1.52%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.27%EV -3.92%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-21 17:54
Tipico (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -3.57%E -1.27%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -5.48%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -15.31%E -5.28%K -8.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-21 17:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.24%EV -4.25%E -1.53%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.96%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.81%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-21 17:43
DraftKings🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -5.29%E -1.92%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -5.48%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-21 17:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 34.42%EV -6.67%E -2.46%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.43%EV -6.93%E -2.71%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.15%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-21 17:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -7.01%E -2.60%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -5.48%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-21 17:44
FanDuel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -7.01%E -2.60%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -7.29%E -2.86%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-21 17:29
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -7.01%E -2.60%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-21 17:30
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -7.01%E -2.60%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-21 17:44
BetUS🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.29%EV -7.01%E -2.60%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.31%EV -7.29%E -2.86%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -8.01%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-21 17:39
888sport🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -7.01%E -2.60%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-21 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -7.01%E -2.60%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-21 17:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -7.01%E -2.60%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-21 17:49
William Hill🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -7.01%E -2.60%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-21 17:49
NetBet (FR)🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.40%EV -8.04%E -3.01%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.45%EV -8.39%E -3.33%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -8.01%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-21 17:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -8.73%E -3.30%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -3.66%E -1.38%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-21 15:29
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -8.73%E -3.30%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -3.66%E -1.38%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-21 15:29
Bovada🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.72%EV -8.73%E -3.30%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.08%EV -7.29%E -2.86%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -8.01%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-21 17:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -8.73%E -3.30%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-21 17:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -8.73%E -3.30%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-21 17:44
SportsBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -8.73%E -3.30%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-21 17:29
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -8.73%E -3.30%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-21 17:29
Suprabets🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.29%EV -8.73%E -3.30%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 35.92%EV -8.02%E -3.17%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -10.93%E -3.58%K -5.33%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-21 17:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.48%EV -9.42%E -3.58%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.27%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 17:49
betano_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.54%EV -9.77%E -3.73%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.81%EV -5.48%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-21 17:55
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.54%EV -9.77%E -3.73%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.81%EV -5.48%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-21 17:55
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.81%EV -9.77%E -3.73%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -7.29%E -2.86%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-21 17:43
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.81%EV -9.77%E -3.73%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -7.29%E -2.86%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-21 17:44
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.77%E -3.73%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-21 17:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -10.45%E -4.02%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -5.48%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-21 17:29
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -10.45%E -4.02%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -5.48%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-21 17:34
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -10.45%E -4.02%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -7.29%E -2.86%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-21 17:50
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -10.45%E -4.02%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-21 17:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -10.45%E -4.02%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -10.93%E -4.46%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-21 17:29
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -10.45%E -4.02%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -10.93%E -4.46%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-21 17:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -10.45%E -4.02%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -10.93%E -4.46%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-21 17:25
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -10.45%E -4.02%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -10.93%E -4.46%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-21 17:29
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -10.45%E -4.02%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.25%EV -10.93%E -4.46%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-21 17:29
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.90%EV -10.45%E -4.02%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.72%EV -12.75%E -5.31%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.38%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-21 17:29
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -12.18%E -4.77%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -5.48%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-21 15:29
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -12.18%E -4.77%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -5.48%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-21 15:29
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -12.18%E -4.77%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -5.48%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-21 15:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -12.18%E -4.77%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -5.48%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-21 15:29
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -12.18%E -4.77%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -5.48%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-21 15:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -12.18%E -4.77%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -5.48%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-21 15:29
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -12.18%E -4.77%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -5.48%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-21 15:29
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -12.18%E -4.77%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -5.48%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-21 15:29
BetRivers🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.71%EV -13.90%E -5.56%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.01%EV -7.29%E -2.86%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.27%EV -10.93%E -3.58%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-21 15:29
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.29%EV -13.90%E -5.56%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.29%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.41%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-21 15:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.29%EV -13.90%E -5.56%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.29%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.41%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-21 15:29
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.29%EV -13.90%E -5.56%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.29%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.41%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-21 15:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.90I 34.48%NM 34.16%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.70%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.14%0.9%2026-08-21 17:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.90I 34.48%NM 34.16%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.70%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.14%0.9%2026-08-21 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 34.16%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.70%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.14%0.9%2026-08-21 17:54