Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Saint Etienne v Amiens

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 18:00 UTC

Final: Saint Etienne 5–0 Amiens

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

59 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Saint Etienne (Local)

Prediction 79.93%1.25fair odd
EV -4.09%
Edge -3.40%
Kelly -20.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.10%79.84%79.94%81.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.161.161.2090.09%86.56%86.21%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Amiens (Visit)

Prediction 7.50%13.34fair odd
EV +4.97%
Edge +0.355%
Kelly +0.382%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 14.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.70%7.58%7.46%9.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0012.2313.0014.0010.00%8.17%7.69%7.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.57%7.95fair odd
EV +1.85%
Edge +0.228%
Kelly +0.260%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 8.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.49%12.59%12.59%14.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.277.508.1016.67%13.76%13.33%12.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Saint Etienne (Local): 79.93%; Amiens (Visit): 7.50%; Draw: 12.57%. For Amiens (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.34. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 14.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.97%.

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.54%EV -5.68%E -4.82%K -31.58%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +4.97%E +0.355%K +0.382%G +0.019%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.67%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 17:40
LeoVegas🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.81%EV -7.28%E -6.28%K -45.52%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.70%EV +4.97%E +0.355%K +0.382%G +0.019%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 17:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.81%EV -7.28%E -6.28%K -45.52%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.70%EV +4.97%E +0.355%K +0.382%G +0.019%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 17:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.62%EV -8.88%E -7.79%K -63.44%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.89%EV +1.22%E +0.090%K +0.098%G +0.001%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.49%EV +1.85%E +0.228%K +0.260%G +0.005%7.5%2026-05-09 17:54
DraftKings🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.89%EV -6.48%E -5.54%K -38.14%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV +0.591%E +0.074%K +0.084%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-09 17:35
Pinnacle🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.83%EV -6.48%E -5.54%K -38.14%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.95I 12.58%NM 11.90%EV -0.037%E -0.005%K -0.005%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-09 17:50
888sport🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.26%EV -6.48%E -5.54%K -38.14%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-09 17:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.26%EV -6.48%E -5.54%K -38.14%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-09 17:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.26%EV -6.48%E -5.54%K -38.14%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-09 17:29
William Hill🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.26%EV -6.48%E -5.54%K -38.14%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-09 17:30
Bet Victor🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.26%EV -6.48%E -5.54%K -38.14%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-09 17:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -5.68%E -4.82%K -31.58%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -11.98%E -1.71%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 17:44
PMU (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.39%EV -7.28%E -6.28%K -45.52%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.17%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 17:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -6.48%E -5.54%K -38.14%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -11.98%E -1.71%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-09 17:43
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -6.48%E -5.54%K -38.14%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -11.98%E -1.71%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-09 17:35
FanDuel🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.29%EV -8.88%E -7.79%K -63.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV +0.591%E +0.074%K +0.084%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 17:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.67%EV -8.88%E -7.79%K -63.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 17:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.67%EV -8.88%E -7.79%K -63.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 17:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.67%EV -8.88%E -7.79%K -63.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 17:15
BetRivers🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.67%EV -8.88%E -7.79%K -63.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 17:19
TABtouch🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.67%EV -8.88%E -7.79%K -63.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 17:19
Grosvenor🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.67%EV -8.88%E -7.79%K -63.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 17:19
Unibet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.67%EV -8.88%E -7.79%K -63.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 17:19
Casumo🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.67%EV -8.88%E -7.79%K -63.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 17:19
ATG (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.67%EV -8.88%E -7.79%K -63.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 17:20
betPARX🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.67%EV -8.88%E -7.79%K -63.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 17:15
theScore Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.67%EV -8.88%E -7.79%K -63.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 17:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.11%EV -9.68%E -8.57%K -74.47%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -11.98%E -1.71%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-09 17:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.11%EV -9.68%E -8.57%K -74.47%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -11.98%E -1.71%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-09 17:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.11%EV -9.68%E -8.57%K -74.47%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV -2.53%E -0.195%K -0.211%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -11.98%E -1.71%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-09 17:15
BetMGM🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.02%EV -4.09%E -3.40%K -20.43%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -10.03%E -0.836%K -0.912%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.08%EV -8.84%E -1.22%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-09 17:54
1xBet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.96%EV -5.68%E -4.82%K -31.58%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -10.03%E -0.836%K -0.912%G +0.000%7.02I 14.25%NM 13.27%EV -11.73%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 17:54
Fanatics🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.07%EV -6.48%E -5.54%K -38.14%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV -10.03%E -0.836%K -0.912%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV -11.98%E -1.71%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 17:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.57%EV -8.88%E -7.79%K -63.44%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.65%EV -10.03%E -0.836%K -0.912%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.78%EV -1.92%E -0.247%K -0.283%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 17:34
NetBet (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.72%EV -8.08%E -7.03%K -53.88%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.64%EV -10.03%E -0.836%K -0.912%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.64%EV -8.84%E -1.22%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-09 17:49
betfred_uk🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.28%EV -6.48%E -5.54%K -38.14%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.63%EV -10.03%E -0.836%K -0.912%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -18.27%E -2.81%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-09 17:34
PlayUp🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.28%EV -6.48%E -5.54%K -38.14%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.63%EV -10.03%E -0.836%K -0.912%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -18.27%E -2.81%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-09 17:39
Betway🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.28%EV -6.48%E -5.54%K -38.14%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.63%EV -10.03%E -0.836%K -0.912%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -18.27%E -2.81%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-09 17:39
Suprabets🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.65%EV -8.88%E -7.79%K -63.44%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.57%EV -10.03%E -0.836%K -0.912%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 12.79%EV -10.73%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-09 17:36
Everygame🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.50%EV -8.88%E -7.79%K -63.44%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV -10.03%E -0.836%K -0.912%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -11.98%E -1.71%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-09 17:34
SportsBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.47%EV -10.48%E -9.36%K -87.33%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.51%EV -10.03%E -0.836%K -0.912%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-09 17:54
Paddy Power🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 80.61%EV -11.28%E -10.16%K -102.54%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.46%EV -10.03%E -0.836%K -0.912%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-09 17:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 77.82%EV -8.88%E -7.79%K -63.44%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.39%EV -10.03%E -0.836%K -0.912%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -24.56%E -4.09%K -4.91%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-09 17:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.03%EV -7.28%E -6.28%K -45.52%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.07%EV -13.78%E -1.20%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.90%EV -1.92%E -0.247%K -0.283%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-09 17:34
LowVig.ag🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.03%EV -7.28%E -6.28%K -45.52%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.07%EV -13.78%E -1.20%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.90%EV -1.92%E -0.247%K -0.283%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-09 17:34
BetUS🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.03%EV -7.28%E -6.28%K -45.52%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.07%EV -13.78%E -1.20%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.90%EV -1.92%E -0.247%K -0.283%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-09 17:34
NordicBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.96%EV -6.48%E -5.54%K -38.14%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.03%EV -13.78%E -1.20%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.01%EV -10.73%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 17:44
Betsson🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.96%EV -6.48%E -5.54%K -38.14%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.03%EV -13.78%E -1.20%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.01%EV -10.73%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 17:44
Bovada🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.50%EV -8.08%E -7.03%K -53.88%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.31%EV -17.53%E -1.59%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 17:38
BoyleSports🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.81%EV -8.08%E -7.03%K -53.88%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.24%EV -17.53%E -1.59%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -11.98%E -1.71%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-09 17:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.05%EV -7.28%E -6.28%K -45.52%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%EV -17.53%E -1.59%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.72%EV -17.01%E -2.58%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-09 17:44
Betclic (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.73%EV -6.48%E -5.54%K -38.14%G +0.000%10.75I 9.30%NM 8.57%EV -19.40%E -1.80%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.70%EV -8.84%E -1.22%K -1.41%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-09 17:43
Winamax (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.04%EV -7.28%E -6.28%K -45.52%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.73%EV -21.27%E -2.03%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.23%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-09 17:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.04%EV -7.28%E -6.28%K -45.52%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.73%EV -21.27%E -2.03%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.23%EV -5.70%E -0.759%K -0.876%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-09 17:44
Coral🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.10%EV -6.48%E -5.54%K -38.14%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.02%EV -25.02%E -2.50%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.88%EV -18.27%E -2.81%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-09 17:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.10%EV -6.48%E -5.54%K -38.14%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.02%EV -25.02%E -2.50%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.88%EV -18.27%E -2.81%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-09 17:40
Neds🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.10%EV -6.48%E -5.54%K -38.14%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.02%EV -25.02%E -2.50%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.88%EV -18.27%E -2.81%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-09 17:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.10%EV -6.48%E -5.54%K -38.14%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.02%EV -25.02%E -2.50%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.88%EV -18.27%E -2.81%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-09 17:39
Sky Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 78.47%EV -9.68%E -8.57%K -74.47%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.87%EV -25.02%E -2.50%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -11.98%E -1.71%K -2.00%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-09 17:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.19I 84.03%NM 83.28%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.61%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.11%0.9%2026-05-09 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.20I 83.33%NM 82.23%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.81%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.96%1.3%2026-05-09 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.20I 83.33%NM 82.23%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.81%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.96%1.3%2026-05-09 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.19I 84.03%NM 82.92%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.80%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.28%1.3%2026-05-09 17:55
Smarkets1.18I 84.75%NM 82.85%14.49I 6.90%NM 6.75%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.40%2.3%2026-05-09 17:54